Climate Central - Record Arctic Sea Ice Low Would Have Occured Even w/o August Cyclone
The "Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012," which struck the Arctic at the height of the sea ice melt season in early August, was not responsible for causing sea ice extent to plunge to a record low just a few weeks later. That is one of the conclusions of a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. It is the first study to quantify the impacts that the storm had on the fragile Arctic sea ice cover, which has been rapidly shrinking and thinning in response to rapid Arctic warming.
The study found that while the extraordinarily powerful storm did, in fact, accelerate the melting of Arctic sea ice, the sea ice extent record would have occurred regardless. The sea ice cover has been so depleted by warming air and water temperatures during the past few decades that it was "preconditioned" to reach a new record low, according to the study. Other studies have shown that manmade global warming is responsible for much of the sea ice loss by causing Arctic air and water temperatures to increase.
The research, by a team of University of Washington polar scientists, relied on a combination of computer models and meteorological data to simulate the effects that the storm had on the sea ice. They ran computer simulations of the sea ice cover interacting with last summer’s weather and compared it against simulations that did not include the storm. The simulations did not include every possible storm-related impact, as the model used left out wave-related effects, for example.
The study found that the storm-related ice loss accelerated due to the way the storm caused warmer waters to rise from deeper ocean layers, melting sea ice from below. In the summertime, thin sea ice cover and areas of open water allow sunlight to filter to the water below, creating a layer of denser, saltier water about 65 feet below the surface. That water can be warmed over time by the sun’s rays, and when stirred to the surface by a storm or other factors, it can help melt sea ice.
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