De-carbonizing the world's electricity supply
I just did a back-of-the-envelope assessment on the impact of completely and immediately de-carbonizing the world’s electricity supply (via renewables or any other means, so long as the replacement source is 100% CO2-free).
Data from teh google indicates that the world uses about 80% of its coal consumption, 67% of its natural gas and 6% of its oil in the generation of electricity.
Data from the BP Statistical Review translates this into 40% of the world’s fossil fuels going to electricity production, with 60% being used in transportation, heating and industrial processes.
The implication is that if we totally de-carbonized our electricity supply tomorrow, we would cut CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled electricity generation by around 40%.
A reduction of 40% would get us back to the CO2 emissions we produced in 1985. In other words we would set the carbon clock back less than 20 years. In 1985 world CO2 levels were already climbing by 1.6 ppmv/year - compared to just over 2 ppmv/year today and rising.
My conclusion is that even shutting down every coal and gas generating plant in the world today wouldn't remove the existential climate threat of CO2. In fact, it wouldn't even reduce the threat significantly.
This is why I’m so dismissive of the potential of renewable energy. Renewable energy works, it is growing fast, and it can be incorporated into electrical grids without too much problem. But it’s just not enough. No electrical source – even if it is 100% carbon-free – can address the carbon emissions of the world's non-electrical uses of fossil fuels. (On edit - we can and will nibble around the edges with electric cars, but nibbling is all it amounts to, given the rate at which CO2 levels are increasing)
Our civilization has simply outgrown and trashed its home here on planet Earth. Unfortunately, we can’t leave. As our species moves from carefree adolescence into sober, responsible adulthood, collectively we will have to do what each of us has to do as an adult – accept the consequences of our previous actions.
There is no blame attached to this. We didn’t realize what we were doing. Our innovative ability far outstripped our scientific understanding of the consequences of our actions. We painted ourselves into this corner with billions of tiny, well-meaning brush-strokes.
It seems that the biggest job in front of us will be to figure out what it means to be adults in a world that has already been irremediably trashed by our teenage species.