Global warming on track to result in 3.6 to 5.3 degree temperature increase—exceeding 2.0 target

[xchrom]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/06/10/global-warming-on-track-to-result-in-3-6-to-5-3-degree-temperature-increase-exceeding-2-0-target/



The rise in the global temperature is on track to double the 2.0 degrees Celsius target, the International Energy Agency warned on Monday, and said four policies were needed urgently to limit climate change without harming economic growth.

“This report shows that the path we are currently on is more likely to result in a temperature increase of between 3.6 degrees Celsius and 5.3 degrees Celsius,” IEA chief Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement.

Nations have set the goal of limiting the increase in the global temperature this century to 2 degrees C at a UN summit in Durban in 2010 in order to avoid devastating climate change effects such as worsening droughts, storms, flood and sea levels.

The IEA’s Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map report found that energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases, responsible for about two-thirds of the total, rose by 1.4 percent last year to a record level.

[cilla4progress]

1. THIS is what we should all be

getting exercised and doing something about ...

[deutsey]

2. I know...I just can't figure out why more people aren't riled up about this

I now think I truly really grasp expressions like "whistling past the graveyard" and "fiddling while Rome burns".

[cilla4progress]

3. I agree.

How will this end?

[CRH]

4. Following the link to the raw story, ...

the original article didn't have any links to the source document. But nowhere in the article is there an indication the IEA report has considered the methane releases from the multiple failing frozen carbon sinks. It appears from the article, anthropogenic emissions are the total focus without consideration of the geologic response initiated from the feed back loops.

So, the IEA's 3.6*C and 5.3*C might be another low ball estimate of reality.

[Yo_Mama]

5. I don't believe it.

The actual temperature increase in the satellite era has been far less than 0.5 Celsius, and this is now about a third of a century. (Going by the troposphere measurements.)

Increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere have less of an effect, because most of the energy that could be captured is already captured. So trying to project a straight line increase just defies the laws of physics.

It's more like an upper limit of 1.5 Celsius, which is not inconsiderable. All of the projections like that come from models, but the models don't match what's happening.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/plot/uah/plot/rss/trend/plot/uah/trend

[cprise]

7. Sounds like a roundabout way of saying

the hockeystick is bunk.

[limpyhobbler]

6. seems sort of terrifying. nt