Toyota Seeks Prius-Like Success With 2015 Fuel-Cell Model

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-26/toyota-seeks-prius-like-success-with-2015-fuel-cell-model.html

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Toyota Seeks Prius-Like Success With 2015 Fuel-Cell Model[/font]

By Alan Ohnsman - 2013-06-26T22:00:06Z

[font size=3]…

The automaker that defied skeptics in the ’90s with its Prius gasoline-electric hybrid cars is looking for a fuel-cell sequel. At the Tokyo Motor Show in November, it plans to show a hydrogen-powered sedan that would be sold as a 2015 model. It could be available in U.S. dealerships as soon next year for a price comparable to a mid-size BMW or Tesla Model S.

The allure of hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, as a clean gasoline replacement led carmakers a decade ago -- notably the former General Motors Corp. -- to predict millions of fuel cell autos would be on the road by now. While a mass-market for hydrogen cars may be a decade or more away, the enticement is undiminished.

“We’re now in the ‘trough of disillusionment’ for fuel-cell vehicles,” said John German, program director with the International Council on Clean Transportation environmental policy group, citing a phase of Gartner Research’s “Hype Cycle” that charts commercial viability of new technologies.

“This is a genuinely better vehicle” over the long term than gasoline-burning or battery-only autos, said German, a contributor to National Academy of Sciences studies.

…[/font][/font]

[Scuba]

1. In tech projects the "trough of disillusionment" follows the period of "unbridled expectations".

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Gartner identifies 5 phases in the “Hype Cycle”

http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp

• Technology Trigger
• Peak of Inflated Expectations
• Trough of Disillusionment
• Slope of Enlightenment
• Plateau of Productivity

Naturally, not all new technologies are successful.

[Scuba]

4. Gartner stole this. It's been around for many decades, long before Gartner.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. It doesn’t surprise me

On the other hand, the OP references Gartner’s terminology.

[NYC_SKP]

2. As long as people realize that hydrogen, like electricity, is an energy carrier and not a source.

It should be interesting to see how the two technologies, EV and H2, fare in the future.

Will one technology and the required infrastructure win out over the other?

Or, will we see success with both, or success with both and some third technology?

In any event, it's high time we kill off the ICU and fossil fuel approach to transport.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. I think we may see both

The battery electric vehicle can be conveniently recharged in a garage, with no special equipment.

This, and other factors, make it appropriate for a “commuter vehicle.”

[tinrobot]

7. How many hydrogen fueling stations are there in the US?

Now how many electrical outlets, including car chargers?

Electricity is already everywhere, hydrogen is not. Unless hydrogen is orders of magnitude better in terms of performance, that car will be a tough product to sell.

[OKIsItJustMe]

9. “Orders of magnitude!?” Really!?

OK, how about this for one order of magnitude? How long does it take to fully charge an EV?
http://www.teslamotors.com/charging#/onthego

The Tesla Supercharger recharges Model S quickly. Super quickly. Superchargers are for refueling quickly on road trips. A Supercharger can charge about half the battery in 30 minutes. All Model S vehicles with the 85 kWh battery can use Superchargers as can properly equipped 60 kWh battery vehicles. Superchargers will be positioned at convenient locations along major interstates throughout the country.

Wow! that is fast! About half a charge in about 30 minutes?

And how long does it take to completely fill a hydrogen tank? (About 3 minutes.)

That’s a bit better than one order of magnitude.

Any place where there is electricity and water, there is the potential for a hydrogen filling station.

[wtmusic]

14. You forgot the bit about "half a trillion dollars".

I'll amend your waxing optimism: any place there are 50,000 service stations and an industry in decline, there is the potential for a new bogus product to be rammed down the public's throat.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Which “half a trillion dollars?”

“potential for a new bogus product to be rammed down the public's throat.”

Interesting. They don’t seem to be beating down the doors to buy EV’s. Perhaps “the public” is not as compliant as you believe.

[wtmusic]

19. The cost of developing a fueling infrastructure in the U.S.

(Joe Romm, The Hype About Hydrogen).

[tinrobot]

21. We'll let you be the first to buy that hydrogen car.

Let's see if you can drive across the country in it...

Here's a map to help you out:
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_locations.html

[longship]

8. The most abundant element in the universe.

Which unfortunately is not available on earth in molecular form as H2. It is only found in hydrogen compounds with water a most likely source, H2O.

So hydrogen is not an energy source since it takes more energy to separate gaseous hydrogen than is freed by burning it. That's thermodynamic 101.

So, we will still need clean energy beyond hydrogen to build a hydrogen-based energy system. It does no good to drive your fuel cell auto with hydrogen made with power from a coal fired power plant, as a worse case example.

That's why we need green power generation like solar and wind to make hydrogen work.

It's still nice to see Toyota doing this.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. And electricity is not an energy source

So, your point is?

I’m sorry… I am so sick and tired of this refrain, “Hydrogen is not an energy source” (as if everyone is not already well aware of this fact.)

[longship]

12. I am just stating the facts.

What's wrong with that?

I posted this because hydrogen without other clean energy sources makes little sense. You know that, but maybe not everybody.

I apologize for infringing on your sensibilities.

[kristopher]

13. The article hyped it will the statement about hydrogen being abundant.

It isn't abundant in a form that can be immediately useful. The implication of the article's statement needs clarity because, contrary to your claim, most people DO NOT know or appreciate the details.

[wtmusic]

17. Until someone comes up with a model that incorporates the Big Bang

the term "source" is pretty meaningless.

Many people like longship (and me) intuitively object to the petroleum industry's unabashed hyping of another liquid product they hope to vend from their stations, one that's extremely inefficient, cumbersome, dangerous, and anything but clean.

[kristopher]

11. "only found in hydrogen compounds with water a most likely source"

Probably not.

The lack of distribution infrastructure means they will probably depend on reforming a hydrocarbon for their supply of H2.

[longship]

15. True. That's another source of hydrogen.

I am no expert on this, but it seems to me that it might be easiest to get it from sea water which is easily available. Certainly electrolysis is a known and simple process.

Can it be made with less energy by another process? That would be a good question.

I am sure they're working in it.

If they make it from hydrocarbons, don't they increase the carbon footprint? Why not just burn the hydrocarbons in the car in the first place and eliminate the middle step?

I am not up to speed on this, I guess.


Whatever we do, we're going to need clean energy sources to make hydrogen work.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. Interesting… I tend to believe just the opposite.

The lack of a distribution infrastructure makes distributed electrolysis stations more likely, rather than distributed reforming stations.

After all, if you go with distributed reforming, then you need to distribute whatever is being reformed (e.g. hydrocarbons, biomass) water and electricity distribution networks are already in place.

[kristopher]

20. On board reforming seems the obvious strategy...

...as it delays the need for developing any new infrastructure.

You have efficiency improvements and the simplified upkeep of an electric drive as selling points. What mileage rating do you suppose they could achieve?

[quadrature]

22. so why does the US go first?

would make more sense to
launch in a country
where gas costs 6 bucks a gallon

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. Why shouldn’t the US go first?

But, it’s too late for us to go first.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_highway