A new paper by Tim Garrett
There is a brand new paper by Tim Garrett of the University of Utah. Over the last few years he’s been developing a formal framework for interpreting the operation of human civilization as a thermodynamic heat engine. He published the "9.7 mw/$" constant a couple of years ago, and this is his latest extension of the idea. It looks pretty remarkable at first glance.
Here is the abstract:
Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Appealing to a prior result that established a fixed relationship between a very general representation of global economic wealth and rates of global primary energy consumption, physically derived expressions for economic quantities follow. The analysis suggests that wealth can be expressed in terms of the length density of civilization’s networks and the availability of energy resources. Rates of return on wealth are accelerated by energy reserve discovery, improvements to human and infrastructure longevity, and a more common culture, or a lowering of the amount of energy required to diffuse raw materials into civilization’s bulk. According to a logistic equation, rates of return are slowed by past growth, and if rates of return approach zero, such “slowing down” makes civilization fragile with respect to externally imposed network decay. If past technological change has been especially rapid, then civilization is particularly vulnerable to newly unfavorable conditions that might force a switch into a mode of accelerating collapse.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1306.3554
I’m more interested in using the thermodynamic perspective to examine the deterministic roots of human behavior – behavior that has led us ineluctably towards this unfolding extinction event since before our distant ancestors were prokaryotes. Tim’s work lays down more stepping stones on that path.
This is why I think there are no real solutions. There never were, there was just new, yet still finite, space to expand into. We are now running out of territorial, resource and energetic spaces to expand into at the same moment that the entropic byproducts of our previous expansion are set to overwhelm us.
So it goes…
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