Hurricane in the Gulf? July 3, 2013

[RobertEarl]

Each time a cold front comes into the gulf or Atlantic during summer, a
tropical depression is sure to follow.

The simple physics: A mass of cold air blowing across warm
water and under the warm air, forces the wet warm air to rapidly rise. A rapid rise in the warm oceanic air is the foundation of cyclones,

Presently we are witnessing a mass of cold air coming down over Texas and having intercourse with the warm airs of the Atlantic.

A rapid escalation of warm, blown air, coupled with an upper atmosphere
sucking has always lead to excitement on this little blue ball.

Witness the unzipping now taking place over the Gulf. As long as the upper atmosphere continues to suck, the warm will rise and expansion will take place, leading to an explosion.

[happyslug]

1. National Weather Service does NOT make that connection, but gives a 10% possiblity for a Hurricane

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[RobertEarl]

2. Now 20%

The confluence of the two different air masses in the gulf are beginning to make some excitement.

The best chance looks to be a Texas landfall on Sunday. But I am surprised the area in the northern gulf has not begun to blow to the left. So much for that prediction, eh?

Problem is there is so much wind shear which is holding down any vertical rise.

[happyslug]

3. But today, 4-7-2013, a West African Storm is forming and heading to the Caribbean

Most hurricanes follow that pattern, they are formed off the West Coast of North Africa, go West to the Caribbean, where they form into Hurricanes, Many form over the Atlantic and then head north East of the Gulf Stream. These storms go North then East to form massive summer storms in Western Europe (by then the Hurricane would have broken completely up and become more of a front, this is what happened on the days before D-Day of June 6, 1944, and later wrecked that beachhead (through by that time, it did not matter, Germany was in full retreat).

The storms that reach the Caribbean tends to stay in the Caribbean and hit the Islands of the West Indies and sooner or later Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or Florida. Sometimes these storms are carried by the Gulf Stream along the US East coast,

Notice most of the Stroms tend to disispate in the Atlantic, but those that do not can cause massive damage.

[RobertEarl]

4. Gulf 'canes form this time of year

This formation got blown apart by the high pressure winds from the Atlantic. The wind shear is carrying the moisture north, all the way to Canada.

Storms until just this evening have been tracking west. Now they are moving east. Looks like the high pressure is finally backing down.

There is still quite a bit of water vapor in the gulf, but it lost most of the convection and all of the circulation. Very slight chance of any gulf tropical storm left. But, it could happen if the high backs off.