Leaked Report: Scientists Now 95 Percent Certain That Humans Are Causing Global Warming

[babylonsister]

http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/08/leaked-report-ipcc-fifth-assessment


Leaked Report: Scientists Now 95 Percent Certain That Humans Are Causing Global Warming

—By Chris Mooney
| Mon Aug. 19, 2013 9:57 AM PDT


A calving glacier in Alaska.One impact of climate change: Melting ice, and rising sea levels. David Greitzer/Shutterstock


Even though more than a month remains until an official release, Reuters is now reporting on a leaked draft of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. The report, the first in six years by the international body, is considered the definitive scientific take on climate change (although it is sometimes faulted for being too conservative, and quickly becomes out of date).

Previous IPCC reports have made news for a variety of reasons. The 2001 report, for instance, declared it "likely" (e.g., a 66 percent probability; explanation here) that most of the observed warming that the planet has seen is caused by humans. The 2007 report upped that assessment to "very likely" (a 90 percent probability); and now, according to Reuters, scientists are giving us a 95 percent confidence in this central conclusion of modern climate research. That appears to be the chief headline that will be emerging from the IPCC this time around.

Another bombshell reportedly contained in the draft: The IPCC will now label the phenomenon of sea level rise "unequivocal" and increase prior estimates of projected sea level during this century.

snip//

According to Jonathan Lynn, who is head of communications at the IPCC, the organization expects that leaks will occur because report drafts wind up in so many different hands. Lynn cautions that "there's no question that the final report will not be the same as the drafts." Indeed, for the upcoming 15-page "Summary for Policymakers," requested changes are myriad. "We've received about 1,800 comments from governments, which will have to be taken into account in the approval sessions coming up in September," says Lynn.

But will any of that reverse the scientific community's overwhelming conclusion that global warming is human-caused?

Not very likely.

[Nihil]

1. "We've received about 1,800 comments from governments"

> "there's no question that the final report will not be the same as the drafts."
> Indeed, for the upcoming 15-page "Summary for Policymakers," requested changes are myriad.
> "We've received about 1,800 comments from governments, which will have to be taken into
> account in the approval sessions coming up in September,"

So, in other words, the scientific facts are still too unpalatable to the various
politicians and will need to be diluted heavily to reduce the chance that the
general herd will catch on before the former can cash out.