Scientific Report: Keystone XL and Arctic Drilling Must Be Stopped

[eridani]

http://www.nationofchange.org/scientific-report-keystone-xl-and-arctic-drilling-must-be-stopped-1387119489

This is the scientific paper that should stop all Arctic drilling now. It should also stop the controversial Keystone XL pipeline.

It is yet another warning that business as usual for the oil industry is just not acceptable.

And it once again reiterates a simple truth so, so unpalatable to the Canadians: that exploiting the tar sands is incompatible with preventing climate change.

The paper should make deeply uncomfortable reading for any financial institution or oil company thinking of investing in the Arctic or the tar sands, or the heads of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. In short, it affects everyone involved in the oil industry.

[kristopher]

1. Abstract of (open access) Energy Policy paper

Energy Policy
Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 102–112


Un-burnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilisation in a decarbonised energy system
Christophe McGlade, , Paul Ekins
Open Access

Highlights
• We examine volumes of oil that cannot be used up to 2035 in a low CO2 energy system.
• 500–600 billion barrels of current 2P reserves remain unused.
• At least 40–55% of yet to be found deepwater resources must not be developed.
• Arctic oil and most light tight oil resources remain undeveloped.
• Unconventional oil production is generally incompatible with a low CO2 energy system.

Abstract
This paper examines the volumes of oil that can and cannot be used up to 2035 during the transition to a low-carbon global energy system using the global energy systems model, TIAM-UCL and the ‘Bottom up Economic and Geological Oil field production model’ (BUEGO).

Globally in a scenario allowing the widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) nearly 500 billion barrels of existing 2P oil reserves must remain unused by 2035. In a scenario where CCS is unavailable this increases to around 600 billion barrels.

Besides reserves, arctic oil and light tight oil play only minor roles in a scenario with CCS and essentially no role when CCS is not available.

On a global scale, 40% of those resources yet to be found in deepwater regions must remain undeveloped, rising to 55% if CCS cannot be deployed.

The widespread development of unconventional oil resources is also shown to be incompatible with a decarbonised energy system even with a total and rapid decarbonisation of energetic inputs.

The work thus demonstrates the extent to which current energy policies encouraging the unabated exploration for, and exploitation of, all oil resources are incommensurate with the achievement of a low-carbon energy system.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300966X

Thank you again.