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FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:24 AM Jun 2014

EIA: US oil production in 2015 expected to be highest since 1972

Total US crude oil production in 2015 will reach its highest level since 1972, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released June 10. Production, which averaged 7.4 million b/d in 2013, is expected to average 8.4 million b/d in 2014 and 9.3 million b/d in 2015.

Additionally, EIA estimates that US total crude production during May averaged nearly 8.4 million b/d—the highest monthly average production since March 1988.

With the Atlantic hurricane season commencing June 1, EIA believes production will be minimally disrupted, relying on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction that the Atlantic Basin will likely experience near normal or below-normal tropical weather through Nov. 30.

Mean estimates of shut-in production by EIA in the federal Gulf of Mexico during that period total 12 million bbl of crude oil and 30 bcf of natural gas. During last year’s hurricane season—the first season without a major hurricane since 1994—shut-ins to gulf production halted only 3.1 million bbl of crude oil and 6.7 bcf of gas.


http://www.ogj.com/articles/2014/06/eia-us-oil-production-in-2015-expected-to-be-highest-since-1972.html
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EIA: US oil production in 2015 expected to be highest since 1972 (Original Post) FBaggins Jun 2014 OP
perhaps it should read Leme Jun 2014 #1
I don't see why... since that isn't true FBaggins Jun 2014 #2
well, you are quite welcome to view Leme Jun 2014 #3
That's what happens when you own things FBaggins Jun 2014 #4
well, the pumped oil is not owned by the USA. It is owned by the internernational oil companies, Leme Jun 2014 #5
Still trying to figure out the distinction you think you're making FBaggins Jun 2014 #6
once this ocuurs Leme Jun 2014 #7
That's it??? You expect them to nationalize the oil industry? FBaggins Jun 2014 #9
You expect them to nationalize the oil industry?... no Leme Jun 2014 #11
Sorry... "expect" should instead be "prefer/want" FBaggins Jun 2014 #12
I prefer to frame the issue different: "US production up" vs "Oil companies production up" Leme Jun 2014 #13
You've dodged the question. Was it intentional? FBaggins Jun 2014 #14
you changed the subject, i prefer to stay on topic Leme Jun 2014 #15
A simple "yes" would have sufficed. FBaggins Jun 2014 #16
had the title been... Leme Jun 2014 #8
Nope FBaggins Jun 2014 #10
A glorious last fart. hunter Jun 2014 #17
I agree Starboard Tack Jun 2014 #18
I don't know whether to smile or cry madokie Jun 2014 #19
I'd suggest crying Nihil Jun 2014 #20
The hope was that they'd spend some time working on alternates madokie Jun 2014 #21
Rubbish. There was no such hope as most anti-nuclear protesters didn't think beyond the first step. Nihil Jun 2014 #23
Sometimes we read a little more into a post than is actually there madokie Jun 2014 #24
True ... Nihil Jun 2014 #27
Speaking of rubbish... cprise Jun 2014 #26
And Gas prices have done what? Finishline42 Jun 2014 #22
The IEA expects unconventional oil to peak out around 2020 NickB79 Jun 2014 #25
 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
1. perhaps it should read
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:34 AM
Jun 2014

International companies will pump most oil from US sources since 1972. This oil does not belong to the USA, it is only a storage place.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
2. I don't see why... since that isn't true
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:37 AM
Jun 2014

Nor do I see how that's different from a US company pumping oil overseas and bringing it to the US.

And, of course, the "storage place" still makes money (tax revenue and economic development).

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
3. well, you are quite welcome to view
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:44 AM
Jun 2014

the pumped oil as belonging to the USA. I see it as having been sold to the companies pumping it.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
4. That's what happens when you own things
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:47 AM
Jun 2014

If gasoline ends up in your tank... it starts off with someone owning the oil, then selling it to someone who refines it, then selling that to someone who transports it, then selling it to the local distributor, then selling it to the consumer. All of those individuals and companies pay taxes on the transactions.

Someone has to own it originally. That could be federal or state lands... or it could be a private owner. But in all cases that's better than a Saudi sheik.

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
5. well, the pumped oil is not owned by the USA. It is owned by the internernational oil companies,
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:51 AM
Jun 2014

just like I said. But you can think it belongs to whoever you choose. and you can talk about taxes if you want. Free country in that respect. Talk about whatever you want. : )

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
6. Still trying to figure out the distinction you think you're making
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 11:59 AM
Jun 2014

They have to either buy or lease the land that the oil is beneath... and they have to pay the government a fee for every barrel extracted (a fee that the government can set). It's then owned by whatever company paid for it... but they paid the owner of the property and the various levels of government. And, of course, the people getting paid the salaries for all that drilling (etc) are almost exclusively americans.

How is that different if the US owned the oil?

you can talk about taxes if you want. Free country in that respect.

You don't seriously believe that they get to take the stuff out of the ground and never pay for it... do you?

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
7. once this ocuurs
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 12:03 PM
Jun 2014
"They have to either buy or lease the land that the oil is beneath... " the USA no longer owns it.
-
and to say US production is up... hides the fact that the USA does not own any of the production.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
9. That's it??? You expect them to nationalize the oil industry?
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 12:09 PM
Jun 2014

When the gas station sells you the gas, they no longer own that either... instead they have your money. Once the oil company (US or international) buys the oil, the original owner now longer owns it... so?

That's a whole lot better than the money going to a country that we're going end up sending sons and daughters to die in (and who is employing their own citizens to extract).

and to say US production is up...

To say otherwise is to shift the meanings of words beyond all recognition. US auto production means autos produced in the US... it doesn't mean autos that the US government produces. Same thing for US soy bean production... or US steel production.

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
11. You expect them to nationalize the oil industry?... no
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 12:19 PM
Jun 2014

but that you said that shows me you understand the difference and choose to call it what you do, and choose to call it what many do.
-
I just disagree that what is in title is accurate, and imo verges on misinformation... or is misinformation.
-
but you are quite welcome to that view.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
12. Sorry... "expect" should instead be "prefer/want"
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:39 PM
Jun 2014

That may clarify the apparent conflict in your two statements.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
14. You've dodged the question. Was it intentional?
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:52 PM
Jun 2014

By implying that "US production" should be limited to production by the government of oil owned by the government... you defacto claim that the government should own all oil assets collectively.

Not that even that would make your usage any more conventional. "Venezuela oil production" has always meant the total amount of oil produced in Venezuela. It didn't change meaning when they shifted from foreign companies producing the oil to a nationalized model.

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
15. you changed the subject, i prefer to stay on topic
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 01:57 PM
Jun 2014

the title as written is fine when BP talks to BP, but not as a title for general release. It frames the issue as if the oil still belonged to the US citizen.... and it does not.

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
16. A simple "yes" would have sufficed.
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 02:09 PM
Jun 2014

What you are claiming the subject to be implies the statement that you refuse to own

That's telling.

It frames the issue as if the oil still belonged to the US citizen

No it doesn't. Sorry... the phrase has simply never meant what you seem to think it should mean. US potato production also refers to all potatos grown and harvested in the US... it does not in any way imply that the US still owns the spuds... or that it ever did.

 

Leme

(1,092 posts)
8. had the title been...
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 12:05 PM
Jun 2014

"Total income from fees is up" or similar, I think that may be a lot more accurate. (if true)

FBaggins

(26,775 posts)
10. Nope
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 12:10 PM
Jun 2014

US oil production has always meant the same thing.

Not oil produced by US companies anywhere in the world... not oil produced by the US government... it has always meant how much oil was extracted within the US.

Starboard Tack

(11,181 posts)
18. I agree
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 05:27 PM
Jun 2014

Who cares who the fart belongs to? Where ere thy be, let the wind go free, or it will surely killeth thee.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
19. I don't know whether to smile or cry
Wed Jun 11, 2014, 10:07 PM
Jun 2014

I think crying wins out though.
In my way of seeing things we've been wasting time for 60 some odd years now trying to paint a happy face on nuclear energy when we should have been working all this time on alternates to fossil fuels going down a different path than splitting atoms

During the fight to stop PSO from cramming a nuclear power plant down our throats back in the '70s we were able to see that the nuclear industry will say or do anything to get their way. Lie became their truth, obfuscating became their MO

 

Nihil

(13,508 posts)
20. I'd suggest crying
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 08:06 AM
Jun 2014

You spent all that time & effort on just fighting the evil nuclear power industry.

In the process, you not only gave a free pass to fossil fuels - coal, gas, oil - but
actively encouraged their growth & consolidation in the modern world.

Well done.

Now cry in the realisation that it's all that's left to you.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
21. The hope was that they'd spend some time working on alternates
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 08:30 AM
Jun 2014

to both fossil and nuclear but no they spent too much time trying to paint lipstick on that nuclear pig to where we find ourselves today, dependent on fossil and nuclear. It sucks that the powers to be didn't realize that nuclear has too much baggage early on. Nuclear wasn't a well though out process. It seems as if they quit thinking when they figured out how to make steam. Not much thought when into the unknowns like what to do when accidents happen. Accidents are going to happen no matter how much one wants to think its impossible.
Nuclear energy is the biggest boondoggle of all time. It never was going to be the all in that the industry tried to convince us it was going to be.
I didn't have anything to do with increasing the level of co2 by working to stop pso from building a nuclear power plant a few miles up wind from me here. Nuclear never was much more than 20 percent of our energy mix at the height of the nuclear age. All it did was slow down the development of alternates by siphoning money and precious time away from the development of a more benign form of energy.
You can sit there and point fingers all you want but I'll only bend them right back at you.
I don't buy your its my fault bullshit

 

Nihil

(13,508 posts)
23. Rubbish. There was no such hope as most anti-nuclear protesters didn't think beyond the first step.
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 10:44 AM
Jun 2014

Nuclear power definitely wasn't a well thought out process - just the (lack of) waste disposal
issue proves that, never mind the techno-utopian dismissal of both human error and technological
failure (*).

That is not my point and it is not something I will even attempt to defend.
The world is corrupt, short-sighted & largely incompetent and the nuclear industry is
in no way, shape or form at the better end of the scale. They were definitely right to protest.
You can now drop that strawman.

My point was that by being such uniformly single-issue protesters, they handed the game to
the truly destructive part of the opposition: the fossil fuel industry. Win the battle, lose the war.

Their goal was to shut down nuclear power stations. This they have largely achieved.

Their "hope" was that this would "somehow" magically boost the embryonic alternative energy industry.

Their folly was to fail to understand that the well-established, rich & powerful fossil fuel industry
would simply turn their backs on the idealists and carry on with the decades of "business as usual".

You can try to "bend fingers" and deflect as much as you want but you can't avoid the sad truth.




(*) Speaking of which, it's amusingly ironic that some of the same protesters are fully on board
with - and actively supporting - highly dangerous techno-utopian scams like "CCS", "clean coal",
food to fuel & "geo-engineering". Life's funny like that.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
24. Sometimes we read a little more into a post than is actually there
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:17 AM
Jun 2014

I was talking about me personally, not other protesters. I tend to agree with what you said though

I try to proof read so I don't leave any doubt what I'm saying but sometimes I fail

Should have read My hope rather than The hope so I get where you're coming from going off on the protesters

When I say the powers to be I'm referring to the people developing the technology, not politicians or any one individual, rather the whole of them


For some back story. I was accepted by the navy for nuclear submarine duty and that was my plan until about two weeks from graduating from boot camp (23 weeks in) they tell me I have to extend for 2 more years if I want to go to the nuke subs. Lots of schools involved and that was what the extra two years was for. At that point I was pretty disillusioned in the whole Navy deal so I opted out. Came back to boot and trained new recruits for six months then went to SERE school then was left there for a year to help in SERE training, then off to the War I was trying to stay out of when I joined the navy to begin with.
Funny how life is like that

I was fascinated by nuclear energy. One of the guys who went to our church was a mathematician and worked on the Manhattan Project developing the bomb. He was deathly scared of the use of nuclear energy, peaceful or during war. I remember setting around a weed fire, (to keep the mosquito away,) at night listening to my dad and him talking about things, nuclear was one of the topics due having just won the war by use of two Atomic
bombs.
to the recent peoples feelings of winning the second world war. Anyways I got interested in the technology early in high school but the navy kind of shot that out the window for me. If they'd told me to begin with it was going to be a six year enlistment I'd probably not had a problem with it but as it was there was no way at that point in time, having gone through boot camp and getting a glimpse of what the Navy really was like. I said fuck that, get me out of here as quick as possible.

Now that I think about it back when I was just a kid listening to the conversations it was referred to as Atomic Energy. Nuclear came later

 

Nihil

(13,508 posts)
27. True ...
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 04:39 AM
Jun 2014

... and not only do I make worse mistakes in communication, I'll also be quick to
admit that hindsight makes life so easy ...


cprise

(8,445 posts)
26. Speaking of rubbish...
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:50 PM
Jun 2014

Anti-nukes did little more than pause development opportunities for perhaps a decade. The rest of the blame sits with the corruption within the industry that drew itself to such a concentrated and unitary concept of power; they escalating construction costs for year before anti-nuke protesters became page 4 news.

Both political parties have remained unequivocally committed to nuclear power for decades, and public support remains widespread. The insiders who blame anti-nukes supposed 'regulatory obstructionism' should put up and write a detailed platform for which safety regulations they want scrapped -- or shut up. However, I suspect they know this would be a huge blunder.

An even bigger blunder, IMHO, is spelling out just how many nuclear power plants have to be built between now and 2050 in order to meet projected global demand for that period. They won't say that, either, because it involves *dozens* of times the number of reactors that exist now ...spread all over the world.

Finishline42

(1,091 posts)
22. And Gas prices have done what?
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 09:50 AM
Jun 2014

And Gas prices have done what? Just as many who responded to the 'Drill Baby Drill' mantra said they would - they have gone up. Because of mainly two things - oil is priced on a world market and the futures market is not users but 70% speculators - who's main interest is seeing the price go up.

NickB79

(19,274 posts)
25. The IEA expects unconventional oil to peak out around 2020
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 03:12 PM
Jun 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/business/energy-environment/shales-effect-on-oil-supply-is-not-expected-to-last.html?_r=0

“But, by the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production starts to fall back and countries from the Middle East provide most of the increase in global supply,” the report said. A high market price for oil will help stimulate drilling for light tight oil, the report said, but the resource is finite, and the low-cost suppliers are in the Middle East.

“There is a huge growth in light tight oil, that it will peak around 2020, and then it will plateau,” said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. The agency was founded in response to the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74, by oil-importing nations.


The write-down of the Monterrey shale basin didn't help things either.

So, right on schedule then. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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