Coal Turns Ugly as Gas Cuts Use to 20-Year Low: Energy Markets

[xchrom]

http://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChronicle/Story?docId=1376-LZ3CBI0YHQ0Y01-3DU2MK75EI8M92VQOHLHVO1TR2

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Coal demand in the U.S. is collapsing as power companies switch away from the fossil fuel to take advantage of the cheapest natural gas in 10 years.

Use of coal to generate electricity will drop 2 percent this year to the lowest since 1992, while gas-fired consumption rises 5.6 percent, according to the Energy Department. Gas prices have tumbled to the weakest levels since February 2002 this year amid a boom in output and milder-than-normal weather.

Appalachian coal, the U.S. benchmark grade, sank 15 percent in January and is down 26 percent from a 2011 high, prompting companies from Alpha Natural Resources Inc. to Patriot Coal Corp. and Arch Coal Inc. to close mines. Natural gas has dropped 31 percent in the past year as higher-than-average temperatures cut demand and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, at shale formations drove inventories to record highs.

“It’s very ugly,” J. Christopher Haberlin, a Richmond, Virginia-based analyst at Davenport & Co., an investment brokerage, said by phone on Feb. 15. “Gas is a major driver and the oversupply there has been well documented, but adding to the pain is the unseasonably mild winter we’re having.”

Gas costs for power plants plunged to the equivalent of $1.16 per million British thermal units less than coal on Jan. 19, the biggest discount since coal futures began trading in 2001, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The difference was 72.7 cents per million Btu as of 1:41 p.m. in New York. Coal was at $58.95 a ton on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Natural gas for March delivery rose 4.6 percent to settle at $2.684 per million Btu today in New York.

[NickB79]

1. This would be good news, if only natural gas use emitted less carbon than coal

Unfortunately, the latest studies indicate this is not so:

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/338505/title/Natural_gas_wells_leakier_than_believed

This basically confirms an earlier Cornell study that found the same thing.

[xchrom]

3. +1

[FBaggins]

5. That study didn't have anything to say about the amount of carbon.

In fact, the linked article clearly says that it gives off less carbon.

It's that the leaked methane has its own impact on the climate (apart from the carbon it released when burned).

However... there's no way to spin it as rising to the impact of coal - for a number of reasons:

* Coal's impact goes far beyond the carbon released (in ways that gas cannot).
* The study is far from conclusive. You can't look at one estimate for a given field (an estimate based on assumptions that could easily be wrong), and extrapolate that to all natural gas production. This particular company or field could be comparatively more/less "leaky" than others.
* If it turns out that the study is correct, it doesn't have to be a permanent factor. Producers may be able to create tigher seals on their equipment (which regulation could then require).

[Viking12]

2. 'Coal Turns ugly'? That's like saying, "water turns wet."

'Uglier' is more accurate.

[onpatrol98]

4. I'm not sure...

Can water get...wetter?

[Viking12]

6. Touche'