Chance of El Nino decreased to 65% for fall/early winter
Just an update to my Jul 12 post - http://www.democraticunderground.com/112772020
NOAA has come up with their weekly assessment:
The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
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