(Alaska) Revenue forecasts: 'Facts' used in oil tax debate may not be

[unhappycamper]

http://www.adn.com/article/20140804/revenue-forecasts-facts-used-oil-tax-debate-may-not-be



The Trans-Alaska Pipeline, seen here near Delta Junction. The 800-mile oil pipeline is a critical part of the state's oil production infrastructure, and oil revenue is crucial to Alaska's economy. On Aug. 19, Alaskans will vote on whether to keep a recently-created oil tax structure or revert to a former tax system.

Revenue forecasts: 'Facts' used in oil tax debate may not be
Which oil-tax system is best for Alaska’s future?
Richard Mauer
August 4, 2014

When voters make the choice on primary day, Aug. 19, between ACES and MAPA, will they have facts to help them decide? Or will they be voting their feelings about the oil industry, love it or hate it, trust it or suspect it?

In the run up to the referendum on repealing Senate Bill 21, the 2013 law that replaced ACES with a tax regime sought by industry, information about what either tax would do in the years ahead has been contradictory and equivocal.

“The vote is about the future -- and there are no facts about the future,” said Roger Marks, a former state petroleum economist and now a private consultant who wants to keep SB 21, the tax cuts known as the More Alaska Production Act.

A "no" vote will leave intact SB 21. A "yes" vote will repeal it and restore ACES, Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share, the tax law passed in 2007.

--

And the results of this vote:

http://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Oil_Tax_Cuts_Veto_Referendum,_Ballot_Measure_1_%28August_2014%29

Alaska Oil Tax Cuts Veto Referendum, Ballot Measure 1 (August 2014)

The Alaska Oil Tax Cuts Veto Referendum, Ballot Measure 1 was on the August 19, 2014 primary ballot in Alaska as a veto referendum, where it was narrowly defeated.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, the election results were too close to call for approximately a week due to outstanding absentee and early voting ballots, though it appeared the state's voters had opted to reject the measure, with about 52 percent voting "no".[1] It was finally determined that the measure was, indeed, defeated.[2] The referendum sought to repeal Senate Bill 21, also known as the Oil and Gas Production Tax and the More Alaska Production Act (MAPA), which was passed by the Alaska State Legislature and granted tax breaks to oil companies.[3][4]

To land the referendum on the ballot, supporters had to collect at least 30,169 valid signatures by July 13, 2013. They ultimately collected more than 52,000 signatures by the deadline, 45,664 of which were confirmed valid by the state's Division of Elections.[3][5][6][7][8]

Those who supported the referendum and sought to repeal SB 21 believed the tax breaks would only benefit oil companies and not the citizens of Alaska. Those who were against the referendum believed the tax cuts outlined in SB 21 were necessary to incentivize these companies to continue drilling for oil in Alaska. At the time of the election, a majority of Alaska's budget was balanced using revenue from oil taxation.[3] As of July 2014, the opposition campaign had outraised the support campaign by a margin of one hundredfold.[8][9] Had Ballot Measure 1 been approved and SB 21 repealed, the former oil and gas tax structure, Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share (ACES), would have been reinstated. The change back to ACES would have taken place 30 days after the approval of Ballot Measure 1.[4][10] However, the measure was defeated, thereby keeping the MAPA tax structure in place.[2]

.No 80,508 52.23%
Yes 73,628 47.77%