What's New in Tropical Cyclone Modeling? An Update from the Trenches

[phantom power]

With each passing year, forecasters have ever-more-accurate numerical guidance on where tropical storms and hurricanes are most likely to track and how strong they’ll get. Several of the leading models have undergone noteworthy improvements over the past year. Track models have gotten steadily better over the last couple of decades, whereas improvements in forecasting intensity have been much more difficult to come by (see Figures 1 and 2 below), so a great deal of energy has been focused on the latter. Below is a summary of what’s new and cool, based on interviews and email exchanges with the following experts

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3072

[msongs]

1. near hawaii the TS's are getting the heads chopped off by the subtropical jet. interesting to watch

the low level circulation shoot out from the under the cloud tops getting sheared off