2 degree Celsius warming locks in sea level rise for thousands of years

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/2-degree-celsius-warming-locks-sea-level-rise-thousands-years

[font face=Serif][font size=5]2 degree Celsius warming locks in sea level rise for thousands of years[/font]

15 Oct 2015 | Alvin Stone

[font size=4]A jump in global average temperatures of 1.5°C–2°C will see the collapse of Antarctic ice shelves and lead to hundreds and even thousands of years of sea level rise, according to new research published in Nature.[/font]

[font size=3]The research highlights the moral significance of decisions made now about mitigating climate change.

An international team led by Dr Nicholas Golledge, a senior research fellow at New Zealand's Victoria University’s Antarctic Research Centre, published the study ‘The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise’, which predicts how the Antarctic ice-sheet will respond to future atmospheric warming.

[font size=4]“Without significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we will commit the Antarctic ice sheet to ongoing and widespread melting for the next few thousand years. Is that something for which we really want to be responsible?”[/font]

Using state-of-the-art computer modelling, Dr Golledge and his colleagues including researchers from UNSW simulated the ice-sheet’s response to a warming climate under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. They found in all but one scenario (that of significantly reduced emissions beyond 2020) large parts of the Antarctic ice-sheet were lost, resulting in a substantial rise in global sea-level.

…[/font][/font]

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature15706
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/526327a

[Jim Lane]

1. Even considering effects as of 2100 may be too short-sighted.

Of course, our political system is more or less incapable of considering effects more than about 10 or 20 years into the future. Trying to get people to care about 80 years out has been largely a failure. This research suggests that we could have a problematic-but-sorta-survivable situation in 2100 but with things continuing to get worse thereafter, and with the getting worse being locked in by actions taken and not taken in the first part of the 21st century.