Floods spurred by rising seas threaten 5 million

[Eugene]

Source: Reuters

Floods spurred by rising seas threaten 5 million

By Deborah Zabarenko

WASHINGTON | Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:04am EDT

(Reuters) - For the nearly 5 million people who live along the U.S. coasts from Maine to the Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast, rising seas fueled by global warming have doubled the risk of so-called once-a-century floods, according to a trio of environmental reports released on Wednesday.

These new reports - one from the non-profit group Climate Central and two others published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters - offer a detailed picture of where the most severe risks are along coastlines of the contiguous 48 states.

Based on 2010 U.S. Census population data and a fresh analysis of high tide lines by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Climate Central report's findings can be seen online at surgingseas.org

South Florida may be "indefensible" against floods caused by higher seas and the bigger storm surges that are expected to result, said Ben Strauss, an expert on ecology and evolutionary biology who is chief operating officer of Climate Central. He co-authored the two journal reports and the online report.

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Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-floods-studies-idUSBRE82D08620120314

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. REPORT: GLOBAL WARMING DOUBLES EXTREME COASTAL FLOOD RISK NATIONWIDE

http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/press-release/

[font face=Times, Times New Roman, Serif][font size=5]REPORT: GLOBAL WARMING DOUBLES EXTREME COASTAL FLOOD RISK NATIONWIDE[/font]

[font size=4]Rising Sea Levels Threaten Millions by Boosting Storm Surges[/font]

[font size=3](March 14 – Princeton, NJ) Sea level rise due to global warming has already doubled the annual risk of coastal flooding of historic proportions across widespread areas of the United States, according to a new report from Climate Central. By 2030, many locations are likely to see storm surges combining with sea level rise to raise waters at least 4 feet above the local high-tide line. Nearly 5 million U.S. residents live in 2.6 million homes on land below this level. More than 6 million people live on land below 5 feet; by 2050, the study projects that widespread areas will experience coastal floods exceeding this higher level.

Titled “Surging Seas”, the report is the first to analyze how sea level rise caused by global warming is compounding the risk from storm surges throughout the coastal contiguous U.S. It is also first to generate local and national estimates of the land, housing and population in vulnerable low-lying areas, and associate this information with flood risk timelines. The Surging Seas website includes a searchable, interactive online map that zooms down to neighborhood level, and shows risk zones and statistics for 3,000 coastal towns, cities, counties and states affected up to 10 feet above the high tide line.

In 285 municipalities, more than half the population lives below the 4-foot mark. One hundred and six of these places are in Florida, 65 are in Louisiana, and ten or more are in New York (13), New Jersey (22), Maryland (14), Virginia (10) and North Carolina (22). In 676 towns and cities spread across every coastal state in the lower 48 except Maine and Pennsylvania, more than 10% of the population lives below the 4-foot mark.

Tidal gauge records show that the sea has already risen 8 inches globally during the last century, and projections point to a steep acceleration. “Sea level rise is not some distant problem that we can just let our children deal with. The risks are imminent and serious,” said report lead author Dr. Ben Strauss of Climate Central. “Just a small amount of sea level rise, including what we may well see within the next 20 years, can turn yesterday’s manageable flood into tomorrow’s potential disaster. Global warming is already making coastal floods more common and damaging.”

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http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/research/papers/

[guardian]

2. "doubled the risk" ??

Would that be from 0.000000000000000000000000000238%chance to 0.000000000000000000000000000476% chance?