Joe Romm: Why The UN Press Release Doesn't Even Come Close To Limiting Us To 2C
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A very misleading news release from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) — coupled with an opaque UNFCCC report on those pledges, which are called intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) — has, understandably, left the global media thinking the climate talks in Paris get us much closer to 2°C than they actually do. Indeed, the news release contains this too-cleverly worded paragraph quoting UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary:
“The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,” said Ms. Figueres.
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Significantly, while China has agreed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, “total GHG emissions are likely to continue increasing until 2030, as China has not yet implemented sufficient policies addressing non-CO2 GHG emissions (methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs etc.),” as the analytical team at Climate Action Tracker explains. Also, India has specifically not committed to peak its CO2 emissions yet (nor have some other developing countries that are not yet at India’s stage of economic growth).
I have no doubt that countries will make stronger pledges in the future — indeed, China just announced with France that it wants every country to have five-year check-ins to assess progress on the climate commitments. But those pledges have not been made yet, we do not know what they might be, and we certainly should not count them in any analysis of what Paris will achieve. So why does Figueres say the Paris pledges will limit warming to 2.7°C by 2100? In fact, she doesn’t say that. She says they “have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100.” What does that mean?
It means that the overwhelming majority of the pledges end by 2030 — but most of them imply a rate of reduction in CO2 emissions between now and 2030. So, if you assume countries will commit in the future to keep reducing emissions after 2030 at the rate they did before 2030 — and make a bunch of other optimistic assumptions — you can limit warming to 2.7°C in 2100.
Ed. - Emphasis added.
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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/03/3718146/misleading-un-report-confuses-media-paris-climate-talks/