Why Solar Power Could Hit a Ceiling

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/543926/why-solar-power-could-hit-a-ceiling/

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Why Solar Power Could Hit a Ceiling[/font]

[font size=4]In the absence of energy storage, solar energy can’t grow without decreasing its own value.[/font]

By Mike Orcutt on November 30, 2015

[font size=3]There could be a limit on how much solar power can grow. That’s because the more solar power we add to the grid, the less valuable it becomes. It’s a simple supply-and-demand story: solar reaches peak generation during sunny afternoons, but there’s a limited demand for such additional power during those times. As a result, solar begins to compete with itself, driving down the price that utilities are willing to pay generators.

Solar power accounts for less than 1 percent of the world’s electricity generation today, but as more is added to the energy mix, the economics become increasingly unfavorable. Shayle Kann, head of GTM Research, and Varun Sivaram, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, cite recent studies of the grids in Texas and Germany that suggest the value of solar will be cut in half by the time it makes up 15 percent of the energy mix. A study of California’s grid concluded that if solar power were to reach 50 percent of the grid, it would be only a quarter as valuable as it was before any solar had been added. Kann and Sivaram combined the data from those studies to make the comparison below.



The industry is well on its way to hitting the U.S. Department of Energy’s four-year-old goal for solar to cost $1 per watt of installed capacity by 2020. But to keep solar competitive long-term, Kann and Sivaram argue, government and industry should pursue a new target of $0.25 per installed watt by 2050, which may require the adoption of new solar technologies. Meanwhile, the widespread deployment of energy storage technology, novel demand-management schemes, or new climate policies could change the situation by increasing solar power’s underlying value.[/font][/font]

[zipplewrath]

1. This kinda gets lost in the article

Meanwhile, the widespread deployment of energy storage technology, novel demand-management schemes, or new climate policies could change the situation by increasing solar power’s underlying value.

This is no small statement. The "up side" for solar is rather large, in the sense that it is a very immature technology in the sense of providing large amounts of the power consumption. As the infrastructure changes around solar, its value will be a function of what new technologies, and new demands, are created. In some environments, pairing solar with wind, or tidal, can ultimately create a symbiosis which would allow a nearly "renewable only" infrastructure, especially if combined with appropriate energy storage technology.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. I’ve been thinking about the trees lately

A lot of the trees in our area have decided that there isn’t a lot of solar power available just now. So, they’ve thrown away their solar panels. They weren’t even a year old!

In a few months, they’ll decide that it is profitable again, and they’ll build new solar panels from scratch. It’s quite an annual investment on their part, but they seem to make it work!

I’ve seen them do this for as long as I can remember.

When the sun is shining strongly, they store energy chemically, and when the sun is not, they use that stored chemical energy.

What can we learn from the trees?

[msongs]

6. is that tree lonely? looks like it could use a few friendly trees around it nt

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. It does seem lonely, doesn’t it?

However, I thought it illustrated my point.

[zipplewrath]

10. Not very efficient

The losses involved with the conversion back and forth from leaves to dirt are significant. There are better storage technologies, albeit one might consider most of them "chemical" anyway. Depending upon the period that one wants to store, one can chill water and store it for "a day". One can pump water up hill and store relatively permanently. I've often thought that "lifting" something really heavy like a block of cement, could be a way to store a few hours of energy. Flywheels and batteries are more about load leveling that any real "storage" capacity.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. That’s not how they store energy

[drm604]

30. Isn't that due more to colder temperatures?

I don't think it's due to a decrease in sunlight.

[OKIsItJustMe]

39. Actually, heat is an enemy of PV (as with most electronics)

There simply is less sunlight available in the Winter.

[drm604]

41. But my point was about trees.

I think they drop their leaves due to colder temperatures, not less sun.

[OKIsItJustMe]

42. Ah! I see!

Some trees don’t drop their leaves in the Winter. We call them “evergreen.”

I suspect the choice of whether or not to drop your leaves is based on a number of factors (cold being one of them.)

However, that wasn’t really my point. My point is that deciduous trees store energy chemically for times when they don’t have photosynthesis to fall back on.

With this freakish weather, I understand some deciduous trees are putting out buds. That’s not good. That represents a loss of investment, since they will drop those buds as well.

[hunter]

44. There are many curious things about trees and solar energy.

Even when plants are growing at their most furious rate they are reflecting and throwing away most of the solar energy landing upon them.

When a tree grows tall and blocks out the light from other plants beneath it, it is not because it is taking all the solar energy for itself, rather it's shading out competitors for other resources beneath its canopy; the usual water-nitrogen-potassium-phosphate necessities, and other various chemical resources and substrates.

Many plants go beyond using shade as an element of competition. Many make toxins that limit the growth of other plants, or they nurture fungi, bacteria, even insects, that are pathogens or pests to competing plants.

But going back to the more general picture regarding solar energy, I think storage is only important in a high energy industrial economy. For example a place refining aluminium or silicon, an assembly line running 24/7, television and radio broadcasting, or the servers and fiber networks underlying all modern communication systems.

In a lower energy economy, where household use of solar energy is limited to reading lights and rechargeable personal electronics (cell phones, tablets, etc.), storage isn't a great economic burden.

Costs of solar power in a high energy industrial economy can be sorted out using the example of electric automobiles and air conditioning.

Suppose you have electric automobiles that are parked under solar canopies. The energy storage is incorporated into the function of the automobiles. What is the cost per mile driven?

Or how about air conditioning? How much does it cost to cool a home or business where solar panels power water chillers, some water used immediately for cooling, some stored in insulated water tanks for times cooling is needed but the sun is not shining.

[kristopher]

24. I agree.

See this RMI discussion of the MIT study.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112794638

[MADem]

27. That wall storage thing looks kind of cool--it's not intrusive and you can hang it anywhere.

And you can link 'em up. Maybe they can figure out how to make that work on a massive scale...?



https://www.teslamotors.com/POWERWALL

[truedelphi]

2. This is why any thinking person is totally aware that solar shouldn't be part of any damn grid!!

Households have long had ways to store solar, but the "grid" doesn't.

the grid is also vulnerable to winter storms, summer wind storms and acts of terrorism. But if the solar unit is attached to each and every home, condo and apartment building, and mid sized work place, VOILA - end of those problems, including the storage aspect of it.

[Kelvin Mace]

12. Well, not really

I have a 7kW array, and it doesn't work at night, and is doing rather poorly right now due to the rain. Storage is important, and coming up with a cheap storage solution would revolutionize the energy industry in short order.

Decentralizing the grid is a great idea, but still you need some way to store energy for later use even with such a grid.

[truedelphi]

16. See exboyfils' reply right belowth is one.

I think if I am reading the Wiki entry properly,that skyscrapers coud even employ the technology.

There re also patents on plumbing systems that have hydro electricity creted simply by running the water in your house.

A lot of things do need to come together, but there are innovations every single day.
(Have you toyed yet with the idea of storing the energy in the form of hot water in old water heaters, which are cheap and can be insulated to keep in the heat?)


I once spent a week or two with a friend who was an electronics expert and electrician.

We tried to come up with a cheap and easy way to use solar to power a household's clothes dryer, which in many homes is the second biggest motor in the home. (The first being the AC/heating unit, usually.)

We gave up. Then I realized that for three bucks I could buy some clothes line and for another four bucks I could buy fifty clothes pins, and VOILA! there was my clothes dryer, totally utilizing the sun. I had arrived at the same solution my HS degreed mom had arrived at fifty years ago.

And the biggest obstacle to solar is the Powers that Be. Although my mom's solar clothes dryer worked quite well on any sunny day, April to November, back in the Mid West, here in Calif where the utilization is so natural and so 365 days a year that it should be required, instead we have Housing Associations forbidding putting up clotheslines in your back yard!

####

[MADem]

28. What do you think of this?

https://www.teslamotors.com/POWERWALL

I think it looks "cool" but I have no idea if it actually works well.

[Kelvin Mace]

33. The Powerwall is cool, but is not the solution

that it is being hyped to be. It comes in two versions, a 7kWh and 10kWh version. The first is for use on a daily basis. You charge it every day with a solar array/wind turbine, then draw the power at night. The second version is a backup power supply to provide power during a power outage and may be charged with green power or off the grid, then used when needed.

Sounds great, but there are a few catches:

1) While the price ($3000/$3500) seems reasonable, it doesn't include a DC/AC inverter or installation which can more than double the price.

2) It has a maximum sustained draw of 2kW, which sounds great until you realize that many household appliances will exceed that. A hair dryer can pull 1.2kW, a vacuum cleaner 1.5-2.5kW, any stove or heating system 4kW+. So, you would not be able to power many of these items with a single unit.

3) The average U.S. household uses about 30kWh per day, which means you need 3-5 units to meet your average demand, i.e. $12K-$15K worth of hardware, plus inverter and installation (so double the price).

Oh, and each unit weighs 220lbs, so you average house needs about a half ton of batteries hanging on the wall.

While the system will work, it is not economically sensible for about 95% of consumers. If you can afford a $100,000 for a Tesla, then you can probably afford a Powerwall. A system for my house would cost more than my solar array, so I went with an 16kW NG generator at a fraction of the cost of a Powerwall. It will keep my heat/ac, lights, internet connection and a microwave running in case of a blackout, which is a couple of times a year.

In short, the Powerwall is a green system that costs a prohibitive amount of green to install.

[MADem]

34. Thank you for that 'review'--I've learned a lot from you!

What kind of generator do you have, and if you had it to do over again, would you buy the same one/same size and strength? Is it a permanent install, hooked up to gas lines, or does it run on propane?

[Kelvin Mace]

35. Your welcome.

It is hooked to the gas line and can generate 16kW which is enough for our house. So generators can have a kit to run on either propane or NG.

Let me know if you have any other questions.

[MADem]

36. I want to get one--was the installation difficult?

I live in a fortress of a home. I wouldn't need one that was "whole house," I'd just like to keep the heat on, the fridge working and have lights in a couple of rooms on the first floor. This joint is stone, though, and when the heat goes out and it gets cold, it gets COLD! What brand is yours? Anything you'd do differently when it came to installation?

[Kelvin Mace]

37. Generac

You need to find out what your sustained and surge draw is, then size the generator accordingly. The generators run 8-24 kW in output, the bigger the more expensive, obviously. We have a gas furnace, so the generator only has to run the blower motor for heat, which can still be a substantial draw. You need to be sure your wiring is up to code and your gas meter can supply the generator, water heater and furnace if you use gas appliances.

Get a couple of quotes and make sure the price includes any permits and inspections if required. I can't think of anything I do differently since I tried to do all my homework beforehand.

[MADem]

38. Thanks!!! nt

[exboyfil]

3. Pumped-storage hydroelectricity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. How much energy can you store using pumped-storage hydro?

Can you store 5-6 months’ worth?

[zipplewrath]

9. Big enough lake

If you have a big enough lake, and a high enough cliff.

[OKIsItJustMe]

19. Sure, and give me a large enough lever (and a place to stand) and I can move the Earth

The world’s largest facility at this time is the Bath County Pumped Storage Station

The storage reservoir has a volume of 43,911,000 m³. When generating power, the flow can be as much as 51,000 m³ per minute.

That gives it a whopping 14.35 hours of capacity.

[exboyfil]

11. Probably not

It all depends on infrastructure. A percentage of mgh. It would be a good long term storage option though (essentially we do it today). Predicted cycle efficiency of up to 80% which is not bad. Several years ago Scientific American cover story was about converting the state of Arizona to a vast solar farm. They proposed underground storage through compressed air.

http://www.science.smith.edu/~jcardell/Readings/uGrid/Solar_Plan_08.pdf

I got to think solutions will include many different options including decentralized solar collectors on individual homes.

[Kelvin Mace]

13. Good idea for large scale deployment

but expensive and can't be built everywhere.

[truedelphi]

17. This shoud be suggested to the owners of big Skyscrapers!

They often have the situation where they are transferring water from street level to the penthouse, and the idea that they could take it one or two steps further and produce electricity seems like a natural one!

[AtheistCrusader]

4. Technically, it must hit a ceiling.

Somewhere around 6.33×107 W/m2 near the surface of the sun.

[ViseGrip]

14. No you don't! Tesla has just finished the residential storage capicitor for residents.

https://www.teslamotors.com/POWERWALL


Tesla is looking at 3,000.00 to 3,500.00 with a finance plan for residents.
Commercial storage was in the 40K range. Now, they are just finished with the residential model.

Look, other countries have been using solar for years. Why do American's poo poo this?

[ViseGrip]

15. PS New Jersey is number 2 in the U.S. for solar right now. Up on the shady lat line as in Germany!

[trof]

20. Key phrase: "In the absence of energy storage"

We do have ways to store energy, they're just not that efficient or cost effective...yet.

New developments in electrical energy storage are coming every day.
I have no doubt that this problem will be solved in the not too distant future.

[OKIsItJustMe]

21. Correct!

As I suggest above, I’ve been thinking about long-term storage. Batteries or capacitors may work for overnight, or cloudy days, but what about Winter?

http://energy.gov/eere/energybasics/articles/solar-energy-resource-basics

[font face=Serif][font size=3]…

Countries such as the United States, which lie in the middle latitudes, receive more solar energy in the summer not only because days are longer, but also because the sun is nearly overhead. The sun's rays are far more slanted during the shorter days of the winter months. Cities such as Denver, Colorado, (near 40° latitude) receive nearly three times more solar energy in June than they do in December.

…[/font][/font]

[kristopher]

25. Hydrogen is a horrible way to store energy.

You don't make it better by distorting the degree and nature of the need. We have a grid. We have various green energy sources besides solar. We have a very large array of options to choose from in the area of energy storage - especially at the end user level.

Hydrogen storage is expensive and grossly inefficient.

[OKIsItJustMe]

40. That’s your opinion

Plants think differently.

[hunter]

45. The percentage of a surface covered by plants is not usually determined by solar energy input.

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/seeing-photosynthesis-from-space-nasa-scientists-use-satellites-to-measure-plant-health/#.VorE0MbyvC0

[Finishline42]

22. This is pointed at utility scale solar plants - not residential or business owner installations

So the future is in doubt when solar only contributes 1% of the total today??? There's a long way to go before it's anywhere close to a concern - except to the share holders of utility companies and the over paid executive staffs of those companies.

The cheaper solar becomes the more it will be installed on homes and businesses. And yes I think there will be a big market for energy storage. But the fact is that for a lot of situations solar provides electricity when it's needed - schools for instance.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. For many parts on the world, the problem with solar would be storage needed over months

not over a day or two. To stop using fossil fuels altogether, we need to heat buildings using electricity (heat pumps wherever possible, though in cities, the available ground or water the heat can be drawn from isn't as much as you'd like; air-based heat pumps are less efficient). And that need is in winter, when direct sunshine is rare. London, for instance, gets one and a quarter hours of sunshine per day on average, in December: http://www.london.climatemps.com/sunlight.php . And that's a low sun - average insolation for London in December is 0.52 kWh/m2/day: http://www.leidi.ee/wb/media/INSOLATION%20LEVELS%20EU.pdf (even Munich, in southern Germany, is only 0.79).

Unless truly massive storage does appear, places that get freezing temperatures in winter are going to depend on wind, not solar - or a hug grid to carry power from sunnier spots near the equator.

[kristopher]

26. Good thing we have efficiency, wind and water also, isn't it.

The proposition that we are limited to solar is absurd; and, when seen as a premise, almost always indicates someone with an agenda that runs counter to the streamlined effort to move away from carbon.

Addressing your specific issue of heat? Start with net-zero energy buildings. Once you do that, the rest is, quite literally, a breeze.

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. Which is why the OP article is right about a ceiling to solar

I was surprised at the number of replies who seemed to think solar power can do it all for the world.

[kristopher]

32. I don't think the OP is correct. (And I'm not surprised:.)

Earlier this year, MIT researchers were the latest in a series of analysts to raise alarm about the perceived limitations of solar PV’s continued growth. In short, these analysts propose that variable renewables will depress wholesale prices when they run, thereby limiting their own economic success. These concerns have garnered coverage in other venues (including Vox, Greentech Media, and The Financial Times), leading observers to suggest that the future prospects for renewables may be dim.

But are these concerns really justified, or do they rely on outdated assumptions about the grid and about electricity markets? We argue that these critiques, assuming a static grid and unchanging market mechanisms, can be used to make any innovation look bad. However, more integrative assessments of a least-cost, clean, and reliable power system of the future will factor in high fractions of variable renewables, along with more-efficient markets (and usage) and new technologies to integrate these resources seamlessly and resiliently.

In this article, we argue that falling wholesale prices is a good problem to have, and that concerns about economic limitations ignore remedies available from supply-side evolution, demand-side resources, and updated market mechanisms. As the world gathers in Paris for COP21, these messages are as important as ever for charting and pursuing a low-carbon clean-energy pathway...

3 Factors That Can Accelerate Wind & Solar Adoption http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2015_11_30_3_ways_wind_and_solar_can_continue_to_grow_in_a_21st_century_grid

Posted on DU here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112794638

I'm not surprised because my first assignment in grad school was to walk around town and conduct 20 ad hoc interviews on where people thought their electricity comes from. I've since done hundreds of more well defined in-depth interviews on the topic. On any aspect of energy, as far as the state of public knowledge goes, let's just say I'm a bit jaded.

[madokie]

29. S-Line Battery Stacks for Stationary, Long-Duration Applications

Not sure what to make of this but if its true then here may be the answer.

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S-Line Battery Stacks are ~2 kWh systems at 48V nominal and can be connected in series or parallel for a wide range of system configurations. The S-Line Battery Stacks serve as the fundamental building block for M-Line Battery Modules and all AHI systems.

S-Line products deliver robust field performance, excellent abuse tolerance, and hassle-free operation. The batteries are designed for stationary long-duration daily cycling applications including residential solar, off-grid and microgrids, energy management and grid-scale services.
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http://www.aquionenergy.com/products/energy-storage-battery

[klyon]

43. people are not putting solar on their roofs to make money on the extra they generate

They are trying to limit their use of global warming gases that come from coal and other fossil burning fuels. The fact that energy companies would like to limit paybacks to customers shows which side of the fence they are on. They really don't want to be responsible businesses.