A lower limit for future climate emissions (to maintain < 2°C of warming)

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/160224-CarbonBudget-NCC.html

[font face=Serif]24 February 2016

[font size=5]A lower limit for future climate emissions[/font]

[font size=4]A new study finds that the world can emit even less greenhouse gases than previously estimated in order to limit climate change to less than 2°C.[/font]

[font size=3]In a comprehensive new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers propose a limit to future greenhouse gas emissions—or carbon budget—of 590-1240 billion tons of carbon dioxide from 2015 onwards, as the most appropriate estimate for keeping warming to below 2°C, a temperature target which aims to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.

The study finds that the available budget is on the low end of the spectrum compared to previous estimates—which ranged from 590 to 2390 billion tons of carbon dioxide for the same time period—lending further urgency to the need to address climate change.

“In order to have a reasonable chance of keeping global warming below 2°C, we can only emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide, ever. That’s our carbon budget,” says IIASA researcher Joeri Rogelj, who led the study. “This has been known for about a decade and the physics behind this concept are well-understood, but many different factors can lead to carbon budgets that are either slightly smaller or slightly larger. We wanted to understand these differences, and provide clarity on the issue for policymakers and the public.”

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2868.html

[daleanime]

1. kick, kick, kick.....

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. "Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO2 yr−1"

So that's 15 to 30 years at the present rate. Ideally, we wouldn't be building any fossil fuel power stations, even gas, anywhere in the world. But we are. And we still use it for the vast majority of transport - build a fossil fuel-powered vehicle now, and you'll hope for more than 15 years out of it, and the infrastructure is nowhere near ready for large scale replacement of the current system. Plus so much space heating comes from fossil fuels that would require new equipment to come from electricity, heat pumps and so on, which all means the world demand for electricity, all from renewable resources, will be far more than it is now.

2 degrees Celsius seems an unobtainable goal. We might make 3 if we're lucky and try really hard.