http://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/11119/brennerJul08.pdf?sequence=1
Strategic Insights
is a bi-monthly electronic journal produced by the C
enter for Contemporary
Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey,
California. The views expressed here are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represe
nt the views of NPS, the Department of
Defense, or the U.S. Government
Fear can prompt the mind and the imagination. Dread
paralyzes them. Both emotions inhibit
logical thinking and deliberate decision. That truth
holds for nations as well as persons. A singular
trait of today's world is the odd mix of fear and dre
ad that holds sway in America, Europe and the
Middle East. It pervades the thinking of political e
lites and popular sentiment alike. The
implications for the intricate, layered politics of the
region are unsettling.
Fear, of course, is the hallmark of interstate relat
ions. Fear of attack above all. Military threats are
usually readily identifiable, immediate, and concrete.
They can be existential, too. This is so in the
general sense that conflict situations are ubiquitous
in a semi-anarchic international system, and
in the more specific sense that a given party may atta
ck at some unpredictable time for reasons
that are now unknowable with means not correctly estima
ted. Moreover, the threat may be
indirect. It could take the form of ideological subver
sion whether by agency or by example.
Existential and indirect threats are notable for not
being resoluble by focused action taken against
a clear target. They gnaw at you as well as frighten
you. That produces dread. Dread can be
understood as free floating fear.
Since the end of WW II, the Middle East has lived wi
th war—anticipating it, engaging in it, dealing
with its aftermath. Political instability—often associa
ted with the machinations of outside parties—
has been its concomitant. Chronic regime instability a
dds to dread for rulers. The two are
endemic in the region. The number and variety of force
s in one's environment that can endanger
rulers is exceptional. In addition to hostile neighb
ors, they have included the pan-movements of
Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism (along
with the Iranian led Shi'ite revival); the
Palestinian diaspora as refugee community, as PLO, a
s cause; and the growing intrusion into the
region of the United States as patron of Israel, po
litical actor and military presence.
Their interconnection feeds a pervasive anxiety among
rulers as to their ability to shape events,
secure interests and, ultimately, hold onto power. Vu
lnerability to coups from within or sponsored
from abroad, to transnational ideologies, or to ter
rorism is acute. It is exacerbated by worries
about the possible second-order effects stemming from
events outside their borders, including
policy shifts in distant Washington over which a lead
er has little or no influence.
= new reply since forum marked as read
