Ukraine: Sneak Peek At World War III?

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http://breakingdefense.com/2015/07/what-ukrainians-can-teach-us-about-fighting-russia/



US 173rd Airborne soldiers arrive in Lviv to train the Ukrainian National Guard.

Ukraine: Sneak Peek At World War III?
By Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. on July 13, 2015 at 5:00 PM

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In their war against Russia, Ukrainian troops have endured artillery bombardments like nothing Americans have seen since World War II. Russian electronic attacks against radio communications are like nothing the US has seen — ever. So even as Washington debates further training — and perhaps arming — the Ukrainians, the top Army commander in Europe said today, they have important lessons to teach us. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges was too polite to say it out loud, but Ukraine is teaching us what it takes to fight the Russians — or anyone else well-armed — in a large-scale ground war.

“All of these guys are veterans,” said Hodges, speaking of the Ukrainian National Guard troops now being trained by the American 173rd Airborne Brigade. “In fact,” Hodges told reporters here today, “I was talking to (US) noncommissioned officers who’ve been with the Ukrainians, and they were like, ‘wow, these guys, they’ve done stuff we’ve never seen, (never) been exposed to that level of violence.’ So we’ve actually learned a lot from them.”

What we’re learning about is the nature of the next war. Russia’s implausibly deniable operations in Ukraine — where it insists only a few good-hearted volunteers are helping local separatists against Kiev — are often cited as a case of “hybrid war,” blending conventional and guerrilla strategies. Russia certainly has used irregular warfare, arming local proxies and sending special forces without insignia, the “Little Green Men,” to seize Crimea. But equally important to the mix are high-intensity tactics like massed artillery, jamming, and tanks, which US forces haven’t had to face for years.

It’s the threat of Russian armored vehicles, in particular, that lead many in Congress to argue the Ukrainians need American anti-tank weapons, such as the Javelin missile.

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1. Can Saakashvili Do It?

Odessans living in the city’s center were shocked awake by the sounds of a bomb exploding at the Angelovyh Café in the early morning hours on a Wednesday morning in early July. The bombing campaign which had reached a near weekly peak this spring had commenced mysteriously at around the time of the second Minsk accords. Terrorists, widely assumed to be agents provocateurs run by Russian special services, carried out such attacks across most of the major cities in southern Ukraine all spring.

What made this incident particularly noteworthy was that it was the first to occur on the watch of Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s former President, whom Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko appointed as governor of Odessa oblast (or province) last month. While the bombings had tapered off over the spring, many assumed they would begin again in earnest, especially when Saakashvili began to do what he does best: root out corruption in his own frenetic, hyper-focused fashion. His appointment in Odessa reflected hopes that he might be able to emulate his relative success in reforming corruption in the judicial and political arenas of decrepit post -Soviet Georgia.

The cafe that the bombers targeted is operated by the eponymous Angelovyh family, who are fixtures of Odessa social life and well known for their nationalist politics and fundraising for the Ukrainian army. (The cafe serves a pastry in the form of the red and black flag that the ultra-nationalist militia Right Sector has appropriated from the World War II-era Ukrainian Provisional Army.) A bomb left on the café’s doorstep had been defused earlier in the year. This second attack bore the hallmarks of a direct challenge to Saakashvili’s capacity to deliver on his lofty promises of restoring security, fighting corruption, and bringing investment to the region.

If the purpose was to rattle the Governor and his supporters, then they soon let it be known they would not be so easily intimidated. The next night, the windows swiftly replaced but the doors still blown wide open, the café’s operators defiantly re-opened to serve customers in time for the evening shift. At around 10:30 p.m. Saakashvili and his loyal police chief Giya Lortkipanidze arrived for a chat over tea and cake with shaken family matriarch Irina, as well as Odessa’s Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov. Trukhanov, a trim and muscular fifty-year old former Soviet artillery officer and Thai boxer, hails from Odessa’s sleepy suburbs. His constituency encompasses shady business clans connected to organized crime. Long used to dominating the city council and city politics, Trukhanov didn’t look especially comfortable playing second fiddle to the voluble Saakashvili. Saakashvili finished every bite of his opera cake; Trukhanov did not touch his own.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/07/13/can-saakashvili-do-it/

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2. Frontline Ukraine

Putin seems to have partly lost control of the rebels. They are determined to fight on with or without Russian support. The tail, as can often happen in international politics, is wagging the dog

“The Ukrainian armed forces logbook recorded 77 violations on July 9, while the Russian federation armed forces logbook recorded 115. Both sides attributed a smaller proportion of ceasefire violations to the Ukrainian armed forces,” reports the Organisation For Security And Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has been charged with monitoring the ceasefire, and includes Russia as a member.

“Not once but now twice — once last week — one of the Ukraine Maidan regime’s allied parties, the neo-fascist Right Sector (RS), has claimed responsibility for the May 2, 2014, terrorist pogrom in which 48 activists opposed to the western-backed Maidan regime in Kiev were killed; most of them burned alive as Ukrainian ‘nationalists’ shot at them, tossed three Molotov cocktails into their building and sang the Ukrainian national anthem,” writes Gordon Hahn today, a highly respected expert on Ukrainian and Russian affairs.

So who is right and who is wrong? Of course, the first quote above simplifies a horrifically complicated situation and is only true for one area. Nevertheless, this snapshot shows that Russian observers can be fair. As I write, both sides — the Ukrainian government’s army and the Russian-supported rebels — are fighting flat out to take control of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine, again reported on by the OSCE. Although many areas of the east are quiet, the ceasefire negotiated by President Vladimir Putin, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Francois Hollande is in danger.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/15-Jul-2015/frontline-ukraine

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3. Ukraine: Blasts Target Police Stations

Two policemen were hurt Tuesday in explosions at two police stations in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, the Interior Ministry said, linking the cases to a deadly weekend standoff between an ultranationalist group, Right Sector, and the police. In a statement, the ministry said the stations had been booby-trapped. Right Sector and other militias have fought alongside Ukrainian troops in the east against pro-Russian separatists, but concerns have risen over whether they could now pose a challenge to President Petro O. Poroshenko.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/world/europe/ukraine-blasts-target-police-stations.html?partner=rss&emc=rss