Why Partitioning Iraq is a Terrible Idea

[unhappycamper]

http://www.juancole.com/2015/08/partitioning-terrible-idea.html

Why Partitioning Iraq is a Terrible Idea
By Juan Cole | Aug. 13, 2015

I think the remarks of outgoing US Army chief Gen. Ray Odierno on the possible partition of Iraq have been reported in a sensationalist way. He just said that Sunni-Shiite relations in Iraq are at a nadir and that the country could look different in the future. But he was careful to say that such decisions are for local people to determine, and that in any case the first order of business is to defeat Daesh (ISIS, ISIL).

~snip~

In the case of Iraq, Odierno is not thinking straight. If Daesh is defeated by the Iraqi army, the Sunni Arab regions will be reincorported into the Iraqi state. Having lost troops in a war, Baghdad is highly unlikely just to turn around and let the Sunni Arab areas secede. If the latter have just been conquered by main force, they won’t be in a position to do so. Moreover, being ruled by Daesh, with its beheadings and harsh administration, may make the population more open to compromise once it is liberated by the Iraq national army.

As for Iraqi Kurdistan, I should say that I am offering analysis, not doing politics. In principle I don’t care one way or another if Kurdistan is independent. But I don’t think it will have positive benefits for the Kurds. Formal independence for it would anger Iran and Turkey and could even lead to war. Moreover, Iraqi Kurdistan is a small place. I doesn’t have a big enough domestic market really to flourish without the rest of Iraq. If it were independent it might face tariffs from its trading partners.

Iraqi Kurdistan doesn’t have all that much oil compared to the rich fiels of Iraq’s deep south. Why not stick around and enjoy that bounty as an Iraqi citizen? It should be remembered that petroleum won’t be valuable much longer, because of its role in climate change. Without an oil income or special access to large markets, it is hard for me to imagine how Iraqi Kurdistan will prosper 20 years from now. The world has enough small hardscrabble states.