Angela Merkel’s War for Europe

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HAMBURG — FOR the 10 years that she has occupied the German chancellor’s office, Angela Merkel has kept her country out of any meaningful military engagement, most recently in Libya, even if this meant leaving her European partners in the lurch. Now, with her decision to commit fighting forces in Syria, the chancellor is not only entering her first war, she is entering a new kind of world war.

Ms. Merkel has been deeply skeptical about military interventions, not for ideological reasons (she endorsed the Iraq war in 2003), but out of pragmatism. It didn’t take any special prescience to see how badly they would turn out, and to Ms. Merkel, the likelihood of losing the support of Germany’s traditionally pacifist mainstream — and therefore, likely, her job — always appeared significantly higher than of winning a war.

So strong was her aversion to military risk that she even stayed out of NATO’s minimally interventionist operation in Libya in 2011, despite a United Nations authorizing resolution and Arab League consent.

What made the chancellor change her mind in Syria? It’s not just that a majority of Germans, 57 percent according to recent polls, favor military action against the Islamic State. It’s also that Ms. Merkel had to change her course in the Middle East in order to keep her course for Europe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/10/opinion/angela-merkels-war-for-europe.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

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1. Syria regime training new fighting force

BEIRUT – The Syrian regime has been recruiting for a new fighting force called the Self Defense Factions as the military scrambles to address mounting manpower shortages.

In recent weeks, state-run media outlets have touted the formation of the new unit, publishing video and text reports on training programs for recruits from the Latakia, Rif Dimashq and Quneitra provinces.

The Self Defense Factions will serve as reserve units that garrison newly recaptured towns and man checkpoints to free up regular Syrian army units to fight on the frontlines against rebels.

“Syrian Army officers are directly supervising these groups so that they will be able to… protect the villages that have been cleansed to prevent the occurrence of any breach,” Latakia governor Ibrahim Khodr al-Salem told Sputnik News in an interview Tuesday.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566353-syria-regime-training-new-fighting-force

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2. ISIS leader 'safe in Libya' after fleeing British airstrikes on Syria

Sources claim the self-proclaimed "Caliph" is safe in the Libya city of Sirte after slipping past western security forces – via Turkey.

Al-Baghdadi reportedly feared for his life after being seriously injured in a Iraqi airstrike in October.

Iraqi TV claims the CIA and Turkish intelligence services facilitated his passage to Turkey – where he received treatment – before he moved on to Libya.

ISIS – AKA Daesh – has developed a new HQ in the anarchy that has gripped Libya since the fall of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/480294/isis-daesh-leader-Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi-sirte-libya-flees-syria-british-airstrikes

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3. The Latest: Russia says its warplanes didn't hit Syrian army

4:20 p.m.

Russia has rejected a U.S. claim that its warplanes have struck a Syrian military camp and pointed the finger at the U.S.-led coalition.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that Russian planes weren't near the Syrian army camp in the eastern city of Deir el-Zour when it was struck Sunday night. The Syrian government said four soldiers were killed and 12 others wounded and blamed aircraft from the U.S.-led coalition.

A U.S. official has denied the claim, saying the camp was hit by a Russian airstrike.

Konashenkov said that four warplanes from two unidentified members of the U.S.-led coalition were flying over Deir el-Zour at the time.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SYRIA_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-09-05-37-32

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4. Russia Denies Moving Into New Airbases In Syria

The Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday denied reports that the military has deployed forces to two previously unused airbases in Syria, claiming there would be no need for the additional real estate, the TASS news agency reported, citing spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov.

“You don't need to be a military expert to understand that [the current airbase] Khmeimim, where the Russian air group is stationed, only requires 30 to 40 minutes of flying for any Russian aircraft to reach either edge of Syria,” Konashenov said.

The Defense Ministry spokesman lashed out at those perpetuating reports that Russia is deploying to additional bases in north-west Syria as “armchair strategists” speculating on developments that have no operational logic.

On Monday, the Kommersant newspaper reported that the military was preparing to set up shop at two new airbases in Syria, citing unidentified Defense Ministry sources. In recent ministry press briefings, journalists have spotted Russian aircraft depicted at those locations on a large map of Syria.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-denies-moving-into-new-airbases-in-syria/552307.html

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5. Lavrov asks why Turkey is bombing US-allied Kurds in Syria

Baku – APA. It is necessary to understand why Turkey, being a member of the US-led coalition, is bombing Kurds in Syria, while the US sees them (Kurds) as potential allies, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Italian journalists in an interview.

The diplomat reminded, that the Kurdish militia is one of the main forces fighting against Daesh terrorists on the ground in Syria.

The demand for artificially setting a date when Syrian President Bashar Assad should step down run counter to international law and democracy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Italian media in an interview.

"For the time being partners link the full mobilization of the anti-terrorist potential with Bashar Assad’s resignation," Lavrov said. "There are nuances, though: they no longer demand his disappearance in an instant, they permit his participation in the transitional political process, but they wish to see some deadline, a date when Assad will stop performing his powers."

http://en.apa.az/-_236213.html

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14. Russia Rules Out Use of Nuclear Weapons Against Terrorists in Syria

Good ti know, good to know ...

The use of nuclear weapons against terrorists is impossible and there is no need for it, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday, Sputnik News reports.

Lavrov said in an interview with Italian media: "Of course not, and the president has stated this, that there is no need to use any nuclear weapons against terrorists, as they can be defeated through conventional means, and this is fully in line with our military doctrine."

Russia has been conducting airstrikes against Daesh, outlawed in Russia, in Syria since September 30 upon the request of President Bashar Assad.

Russian warships in the Caspian Sea also participated in the anti-terrorist campaign, having successfully fired cruise missiles on ISIS targets.

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1767730

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6. Syria conflict: Divided opposition begins unity talks in Riyadh

More than 100 Syrian rebels and opposition politicians are meeting in Riyadh in an attempt to come up with a united front for possible peace talks.

As the conference in the Saudi capital began, one of the most powerful rebel groups struck an uncompromising tone.

Ahrar al-Sham insisted President Bashar al-Assad would have to face justice.

It also criticised the presence of Syria-based opposition figures tolerated by Mr Assad and the absence of al-Qaeda's affiliate in the country.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35051426

[Jesus Malverde]

8. Terrorist conference no doubt...nt

[bemildred]

15. I saw a report calling it a meeting of all the branches of al Qaeda. nt

[Jesus Malverde]

7. She doesn't mind wearing a uniform.

East German in this case.

[Jefferson23]

9. Do they have what it will take..I'm not so sure. Acting coherently requires admitting past mistakes.

*These xenophobic, anti-union views, long relegated to the far right in the West, have broken into the mainstream in the wake of the Paris attacks.

* Rather, she wants to demonstrate, alongside France and Britain, that Europe’s political center can still act coherently, decisively and in solidarity against what Europeans regard as a common threat to their liberty and safety.

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22. I doubt it.

Last edited Wed Dec 9, 2015, 01:05 PM - Edit history (1)

The time to act was 4 or 5 years ago. There are different ways to construct the problem, she trusted Erdogan, she trusted the USA, she has ideological issues, but she already had Libya as an example and continued to try to ignore it, and after the first million or two refugees start to move they become an irresistable force.

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10. Destroying Syria to Create Sunnistan

by Mike Whitney

What is the connection between the US bombing of a Syrian military base in Ayyash, Syria, and the Turkish invasion of northern Iraq?

Both of these seemingly isolated events are part of a larger plan to Balkanize the Middle East, to strengthen Washington’s grip on dwindling resources, to draw Russia into a costly and protracted war, and to ensure that ME oil remains denominated in US dollars. Author Joseph Kishore summed it up like this in a recent post at the World Socialist Web Site. He said:

“The basic force behind the war in Syria is the same as that which has motivated the imperialist carve-up of the Middle East as a whole: the interests of international finance capital. The major imperialist powers know that if they are to have a say in the division of the booty, they must have also done their share of the killing.” (“The new imperialist carve-up of the Middle East“, World Socialist Web Site)

Bingo. Ultimately, the war on terror is a public relations fig leaf designed to conceal Washington’s attempt to rule the world. It’s impossible to make sense of goings-on around the globe without some grasp of how seemingly random acts of violence and terror fit within the broader and more comprehensive geopolitical strategy to create a new unipolar world order, to crush all emerging rivals, and to extend US full-spectrum-dominance across the planet.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/09/destroying-syria-to-create-sunnistan/

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11. Crippled in Syria, Turkey goes for a ‘Sunnistan’ in Iraq

Turkey’s “incursion” into Iraq is a cold, calculated move. And once again, the name of the game is – what else? – Divide and Rule.
Trends

Turkey sent to Iraqi Kurdistan – which is part of the state of Iraq - no less than a 400-strong battalion supported by 25 M-60A3 tanks. Now the Turkish boots on the ground at Bashiqa camp, northeast of Mosul, have reportedly reached a total of around 600.

The short breakdown: this is not a “training camp”- as Ankara is spinning. It’s a full-blown, perhaps permanent, military base.

The dodgy deal was struck between the ultra-corrupt Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and then-Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu in Erbil last month.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/325218-syria-turkey-iraq-war/

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12. The Latest: Turkey premier: Russia trying 'ethnic cleansing'

5:35 p.m.

Turkey's prime minister has accused Russia of attempting "ethnic cleansing" through its air campaign in northern Syria.

Ahmet Davutoglu told a group of foreign reporters in Istanbul on Wednesday that Russia's operations have targeted Turkmen and Sunni communities around the Latakia region.

He said Russia's action could force "many more millions" of people to flee.

Davutoglu said: "Russia is trying to make ethnic cleansing in northern Latakia."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SYRIA_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-09-05-37-32

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13. Jabhat al-Nusra a Greater Threat to Syria Than Islamic State

There’s no shortage of players acting in bad — or at least, questionable — faith in Syria. First, of course, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad; then the Islamic State — choose your poison. On another level, Russia, the United States, and France.

At the National Interest, Daniel DePetris writes about a player too often overlooked.

… with all of the concentration on the Islamic State, another highly significant and dangerous terrorist organization is operating largely under the radar: Jabhat al-Nusra [which] shares the same … interpretation of Islam as ISIL, despises any and all sectarian groups outside of Syria’s majority Sunni community and has engaged in the same kind of atrocities [as the Islamic State].

In fact

… some of Nusra’s key commanders were originally members of ISIL’s predecessor group, the Islamic State of Iraq.

And

Before the Islamic State was operating on the ground in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra was carrying out highly lethal terrorist attacks in the heart of the Assad regime’s territory. The first [likely] attack that the international media picked up [was] a double-suicide bombing in front of Syria’s State Security Directorate and an army office in Damascus, killing 44 civilians in the process. In May 2012, another suicide bombing in Damascus claimed 55 lives.

http://fpif.org/jabhat-al-nusra-greater-threat-syria-islamic-state/

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16. Anti-ISIL coalition focuses on sealing Turkish border

The United States' new envoy to the coalition it leads against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) said on Wednesday that its priority was to seal the last strip of border between Turkey and the territory held by the radical group in Syria.

The US and Turkey have for months been talking of a joint effort to clear ISIL from the remaining part of the frontier, but there has been no sign of progress.

"We are increasing our pressure there," said Brett McGurk, without elaborating further.

The aim is to deprive ISIL of a smuggling route that has swollen its ranks with foreign fighters and filled its coffers with illicit trade.

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_anti-isil-coalition-focuses-on-sealing-turkish-border_406475.html

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17. Carter, McCain tangle over Pentagon's Islamic State strategy

A little comedy ... but it really needs Monty Python to do it justice.

WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Ash Carter told senators Wednesday that adding a significant U.S. ground force to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria would be counterproductive, saying that would "Americanize" the fight and result in backlash.

There about 3,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, mainly training and advising Iraqi security forces. Last week, Carter announced that smaller contingents of special operations forces would be sent to Iraq and Syria to conduct raids and advise local forces. But on Wednesday, Carter said he and Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have not recommended deploying ground combat units to the region.

"While we certainly have the capability to furnish a U.S. component to such a ground force, we have not recommended this course of action for several reasons," Carter said. "In the near term, it would be a significant undertaking that, much as we may wish otherwise, realistically, we would embark upon largely by ourselves; and it would be ceding our comparative advantage of special forces, mobility, and firepower, instead fighting on the enemy's terms. In the medium-term, by seeming to Americanize the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, we could well turn those fighting ISIL or inclined to resist their rule into fighting us instead."

Sen. John McCain, the Arizona Republican who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, scoffed at that presumption, saying he didn't understand Carter's logic. He called for a U.S.-led international force to defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIL. As long as they control Raqqa, its self-proclaimed capital in Syria, the Islamic State will continue to be able to mount attacks.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/12/09/ash-carter-john-mccain-pentagon-islamic-state/77031296/

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18. Putin: 'foreign experts' will examine black box from jet shot down by Turkey

Moscow has recovered the black box of the Russian jet downed by Turkey and will analyse it with foreign specialists, President Vladimir Putin has said.

“I ask you not to open it for the time being,” Putin told Sergei Shoigu at a meeting where the defence minister received the black box, Russian news agencies reported.

“Open it only together with foreign experts, carefully determine everything.”

Moscow and Ankara are at loggerheads over the 24 November downing of a Russian jet on Turkey’s border with Syria, sparking fury and economic sanctions from the Kremlin.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/09/putin-foreign-experts-will-examine-black-box-from-jet-shot-down-by-turkey

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19. Iraq bans imports from Turkey

Baghdad City Council has approved an embargo on Turkish exports to Iraq in retaliation for the deployment of Turkish troops in Mosul's Bashiqa region in routine training exercises on December 5 as a part of the fight against Daesh.

The ban covers any future contracts with Turkish companies, according to Turkish NTV channel.

Baghdad City Council also took a decision to boycott the Turkish commodities due to the 'violation of the sovereignty of Iraq.'

Half of Iraq's total imports are from Turkey.

http://www.yenisafak.com/en/economy/iraq-bans-imports-from-turkey-2355288

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20. Strategic deterrence and the Rubicon theory of war

American military-political thought is abundant with many concepts. One of them is the theory of Rubicon. It implies that decision makers have certain limitations and, on the other hand, there are some mental guidelines, which provoke certain action. This theory is an integral part of American military science taught in universities and implemented in military codes. The task of those studying this theory is to better understand the intentions of the enemy and to avoid any provocative actions, as to not cause a reaction which will bring about the point of no return.

The Rubicon theory of war has several important implications for the theory and practice of international relations. First, it helps to address the fundamental paradox of international relations: the fear and anxiety that underlies the security dilemma in peace times and the prevailing self-confidence on the eve of war.

Second, the Rubicon theory advances the debate whether the leaders or the states are rational actors in international politics. If rationality depends on the mindset, the accuracy of the model of the rational actor depends on when and how people seek evidence in times of crisis. At the very beginning of the decision-making process, the leader is likely to be in the deliberative stage of the thinking process and can resemble a rational actor. Later, during the crisis, the same leader is likely to be in a narrow, imposed, confined thinking pattern, and can display a range of biases or prejudices that deviate from rationality.

So, fear and rationality, which are inherent in human nature, underlie many decisions related to a conflict.

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/strategic-deterrence-and-theory-of.html

[bemildred]

21. . nt

[KoKo]

24. Interesting read & the theories...

One can propose the following theories:

1. We don't know enough about the Turkish military-political command and control. Despite Ankara's appeal to NATO Charter, this excuse is irrelevant. The decision about the attack on the Russian plane was taken directly by Turkey and, probably, personally by the pilot of the aircraft patrolling the border. Even a thorough international investigation will not delve into the probe of the Turkish standards for use of force and Turkish military procedures. This can be accomplished by increasing the intelligence network inside Turkey and a more thorough work on the analysis of various documents and precedents that had already occurred in Turkey (for example, the repeated violation of Turkish air force of Greek air space).

2. The attack on the plane coincided with the updating of the Turkish military doctrine, national strategy and personnel rotation.

Since the last Turkish defense strategy was adopted in the spring of 2012 and Turkey's actions in relation to the legitimate government of Syria and the militants have become quite clear from the outset of the civil war in this country, it is hardly associated with dramatic changes in strategic vision.

However it is necessary to consider reforms of recent years and a sweep of Turkish officer ranks in the case of "Ergenekon". Eliminating the old elite, Erdogan was forced to turn to new recruits, who brought with them the new ideology (narrow behavior pattern which destroys rationality).

3. Erdogan engaged in pure adventurism, having listened to American advice, as such provocation could weaken Russia. From a position of geopolitical confrontation this version looks the most obvious, but it is not clear why the Turkish leadership went against its national interests.

4. A mix of all theories. In this case, it is difficult to track the degree of influence of each of all these variants. In fact, we are facing a black box. You can calculate the input and the output, but what is inside and how it interacts can be difficult to discern. It is also necessary to consider the populist nature of Erdogan's policy, who does not admit his own mistakes and is constantly looking for excuses to justify his actions.

[bemildred]

23. Syria conflict: Rebels leave Homs under truce

Syrian rebels have begun evacuating the last district they control in the city of Homs under a ceasefire deal reached with the government.

Those leaving al-Wair, under siege for almost three years, will travel to rebel-held areas of Idlib province.

Homs was once dubbed the "capital of the revolution" and saw some of the first protests of the 2011 uprising.

But the truce means the entire city returns to government control, in a boost for President Bashar al-Assad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35048404

[KoKo]

25. ....!

The article points out some worrisome issues going forward for EU. If Syria is a late, last desperate attempt on her part to show EU solidarity, this is not a good sign for EU stability going forward--which was already showing cracks from the bank meltdowns of 2008 financial crisis, current problems with Volkswagon recalls, the Greece problem and other countries with debt to the EU still angry and suffering under austerity programs. Add in the immigrant situation and that's a lot of unrest that could boil over, as he points out.


From the article:

The combination of the euro crisis, the enormous refugee influx and the Paris attacks have brought the union’s political cohesion to an unprecedented low. More clearly than ever before, we see that sharing common values held only until it was tested. Whereas the currency crisis revealed long-unaddressed economic culture clashes across the Continent, the refugee crisis exposed an even deeper divide within the bloc — above all, very different, and clashing, ideas about tolerance.

-----------

Not only would the core of the European Union, the French-German partnership, split; Germany would find itself more or less isolated as the last big “traditionalist” European Union country. Britain might well follow France’s lead and withdraw — already a strong possibility — and it wouldn’t take long for other countries to do the same.

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And in an atmosphere of instability and fear, Europeans could well decide that it’s payback time against Germany, the annoying headmaster, whose economic and cultural domination has rankled too many for too long.

At least, this is the fear in Berlin, and this is why Germany has now jumped into Syria.

But to what end? As opposed to France, Russia or America, destroying the Islamic State isn’t Ms. Merkel’s main goal. Rather, she wants to demonstrate, alongside France and Britain, that Europe’s political center can still act coherently, decisively and in solidarity against what Europeans regard as a common threat to their liberty and safety.

The French president, François Hollande, did not invoke NATO’s Article 5 after the Paris attacks. Instead, he invoked the solidarity clause of the European Union treaty, the first leader ever to do so. Ms. Merkel’s challenge, then, is to show that the principle behind the treaty, behind the European Union itself, isn’t an empty promise — for her sake, and for the Continent’s.

[KoKo]

26. Refugees and ‘Germanness’

(older article but still and interesting read, I thought, from Jochen Bittner)

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Refugees and ‘Germanness’
[Jochen Bittner]

Jochen Bittner SEPT. 25, 2015

HAMBURG, Germany — In the past few weeks, I’ve been tempted to say something once unthinkable for my generation: I’m proud to be German.

It’s been almost a month since the waves of refugees began arriving here, and still, thousands of us are flocking to sports halls and makeshift camps to help them. It reminds more than a few of us of Emma Lazarus’s famous lines, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,” which greeted many Europeans when, a century ago, they were the newcomers. Old Europe has become New America.

Still, though tempted, I won’t say I’m proud to be German.

There are deep reasons for this reluctance, but they all boil down to one nervous question: Have we, the newly most powerful state in Europe, learned an appropriate language to convey our convictions and values to others — both our European neighbors and the hundreds of thousands of Muslims we are taking in?

Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, accuses Berlin of “moral imperialism,” and he is not the only one to hold this view. Although the truth is that it was merely a moral imperative that caused Chancellor Angela Merkel to temporarily open the borders, it is right that the exaltation at our train stations and sports halls will soon subside. The next challenge ahead, to integrate all the newcomers, will be enormous.

“German thoroughness is super, but now German flexibility is needed” — that is the slogan of the hour from Ms. Merkel. And this country may indeed be able to accommodate the influx with speedier housing construction. Yet offering the migrants an emotional home will prove harder. For this a third virtue is needed: an attractive idea of “Germanness.” Unfortunately, we have very little experience in explaining to other people who we are, without sounding angry or chauvinist.

Why? Because ever since the mania of the Nazi era, we Germans have been highly suspicious of collective feelings. Never again do we want to be seduced by an imagined national greatness, or even national identity. The result: We have never found a relaxed, let alone inviting identity.

Concerns like that might sound strange to American ears. This is because the United States has always been a walk-in nation. Sure, immigrants never had it easy there; nativism only changed form over centuries, from the anti-Irish Bowery Boys to the anti-Mexican Donald Trump. But anyone who settles there could at least claim to be American.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/26/opinion/jochen-bittner-refugees-and-germanness.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fjochen-bittner&

contentCollection=opinion&action=click&module=NextInCollection&region=Footer&pgtype=article