Russia's Artful Exit from Syria

[bemildred]

Vladimir Putin’s surprise announcement that he is withdrawing the majority of Russian troops stationed in Syria will lead to much speculation over his true motives for doing so. Has the Russian military, as his announcement claimed, actually achieved its strategic goals? Certainly Russian airstrikes and material aid helped stabilize the Assad regime and leave it on the verge of dealing a decisive blow to rebel groups in the city of Aleppo. And yet, there is a number of alternate explanations for Putin’s decision to withdraw. The costs of the intervention have been high, domestic unrest is growing over falling energy prices and other international issues demand Putin’s attention, such as ongoing sanctions over Russian involvement in Ukraine.

Questioning Putin’s motives for pulling out Russian troops, however, obscures a more interesting point about Russia’s strategic pivot away from the Middle East. How can Russia artfully remove itself the conflict in contrast with recent U.S. interventions in the Middle East, such as in Iraq, where withdrawal ultimately proved impossible? A number of factors enabled Putin to intervene in Syria with impunity, and likewise to unilaterally end Russian involvement.

--

Since the ability to disengage militarily from conflicts like Syria rests at least partially on the authoritarian nature of the intervening government, the United States will be unable to pull off a similar move without abandoning its liberal ideals. The Russian experience in Syria, therefore, demonstrates once again that a primary strategic goal of the United States should be to avoid such military interventions in the first place, since its liberal character precludes it from a quick and easy exit. Furthermore, there is still ample time for Putin’s withdrawal from Syria to prove more difficult than currently assumed, turning his supposed “victory” into a clearer form of defeat.

The Russian intervention certainly demonstrated its long-distance power-projection capabilities, but the marginal gains in prestige involved are easily outweighed by the manifest costs in equipment, manpower and other expenses, and by the potential for future international legal action. As the United States knows far too well, it is one thing to declare victory, but an entirely different thing to actually and fully achieve it.

Alexander Kirss is a Resident Junior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-artful-exit-syria-15605?page=1

[KoKo]

1. Snips from MSM...

have all been about US Forces liberating Palmyra with no mention of the Russian back up. Normally I'd ignore our MSM but dragged in monitoring our Election News. I'm sure our US forces were coordinating with Russia....but, that is not allowed to be reported.

I know it's our US Policy for decades that "We Don't do Diplomacy..We Send in Troops and Bomb the Hell Outta the Place."

It would be a great sign of weakness for the American People to think that Diplomacy CAN work...if anyone bothers to give it a try. Although there might be more forces at work here than diplomacy...(like Financial Issues between Russia/US and other Parties) .......I still would rather hope that Diplomacy might be getting a bit of a boost..if only our US Media would allow it to be discussed.

[bemildred]

2. I thought that OP was pretty artful itself.

But considering the source, not bad.

I suppose I expect them to lie, I hardly notice unless they get out of character about it.

It's gotten NOISY since Palmyra fell, I think mainly because it screws up the perception management, it's so obviously a rout, a loss. It messes up the desired narrative. Quite a few peoples desired narrative it turns out. Lots of conflicting reports and disputes about those reports.

And it's getting harder to see ISIS as a great military threat now. They're cut off. And it may weaken their draw for recruits.

The Sauds are trying to declare victory and quit in Yemen too, but are finding they can't. The Houthis won't give them a "victory" to get them to leave. Meanwhile AQAP and and ISIS branch franchises are running amok.

That statement by the King of Jordan about Erdogan playing footsie with ISIS was interesting too, I was a bit surprised at the direct attack on Erdogan, Abdullah usually tries to get along. He knows he isn't the biggest guy on the block.

Crank up the pressure on them all, maybe we can get them to think about something besides their little vendettas.

I think things are about as murky now as they have ever been. I like they way the diplomats grimly continue the charade that these guys want to make peace, and force them all to keep actiing it out.

[bemildred]

13. Yes, bears watching.

Maybe just terrorist threats, they have rockets now, or maybe something bigger coming.

[KoKo]

14. Sorry...didn't meant to post on this Russian thread...

These are good articles to have all in one place and didn't mean to disrupt it.

[bemildred]

15. It's OK, it is really all one big mess.

I try to keep things semi-organized, so one does not get too confused, but this is all ephemeral anyway, talk, no point in getting territorial about it.

[KoKo]

16. Yes..I like seeing a Topic inline for Focus........

and, why I read here on FA's. My mind is jumbled enough with what I read that having one place for a subject is important.

This Forum helps me keep what sanity that I have these days. And, having a Topic with a Thread giving Links to that same Topic is so helpful! And I thank you that you have been consistent in putting out information in that Format. Organizing our Minds in these times is a very Informative and Good Thing.

[bemildred]

17. Well, that is the idea, to better see the connections and relationships and how they change.

Trends, motives, attitudes, narratives. And to better see the human motives behind the high falutin' rhetoric they all trot out to justify their policies. The monkey politics, and who does and does not rise above them, which paljoey and I were just talking about.

You try to see how the stories all connect up. Meta news.

And I was treating Turkey separate today, busy day, because it gets too long and messy.

But what you posted was relevant and interesting and I don't expect things to stay "arranged" very long.

And it is good when people contribute to the conversation.

[KoKo]

18. Problem is...

as you replied earlier. It's getting all "ephemeral" these days.

I wonder sometimes if it's the Ray McGovern Wing of the CIA pushing back along with members of JSOC...and there isn't some mass confusion taking sides and some "Good Actors" working Really Hard..to turn our Country Back from the Dark Side to a more balanced approach to Foreign Policy.

Probably "wishful thinking" (on my part) but Obama's last minute "Turn Around" on Syria Bombing and Kerry's New Turn on Diplomacy have me wondering about MIC..having a closer look at What They have Done in destabilizing everything.

That's what's so hard to deal with these days. Is it True Change or Ephemeral..due to this Election. Of course this "Election" is so crazy ...Yet it is showing a Big Fight over what we and other Nations have done...and the destruction it has caused and how that might make the MIC start to worry about their situations going forward.

[bemildred]

19. Sometimes noise is the objective.

When you don't want to hear something, saying "La la la la ..." and putting fingers in yours ears works very well. This is a very popular real media technique, drowning the unpleasant thoughts out. That's what all the reality TV buffoonery is about, it's cheap, it fills the space, and it looks like information but it is pure entertainment. No nasty ideas to spoil the buying mood. No risk of anybody saying anything about anything which is not drivel.

The US government is not a coherent entity. Parts of it are, some work pretty well, but other parts are little independent fiefdoms with their own policies and management, and they get in arguments with each other, turf wars. Most of political Washington spends its days obsessing about itself, rather like Hollywood, and for much the same reason, both are show business, all about appearances, what matters is audience share and money.

All I mean is that what we do here is at best informed speculation, an attempt to better understand what is going on, it compels nobody and nothing. It's satisfying to feel you've got a better grip on what they are up to or are going to do next, but you don't want to let it go to your head.

Change is coming, pretty quick too. I look back and that's all I see, change, so it's not likely to stop.

[KoKo]

20. ...!

The US government is not a coherent entity. Parts of it are, some work pretty well, but other parts are little independent fiefdoms with their own policies and management, and they get in arguments with each other, turf wars. Most of political Washington spends its days obsessing about itself, rather like Hollywood, and for much the same reason, both are show business, all about appearances, what matters is audience share and money.

"The System" has over-reached. Whether it's today, tomorrow or a few years down the road...there's been too much COST. And, that's what worries them. DID they reach too far?

They've gotten their money, live well, and may not think about it, seriously. But they know someone is...and that the masses of people are waking up. And, I think that's why this Election is so Crazy. They've lost control. And, not sure if their "stuff" stashed away might not be in danger of being .....well..let's say.."insecure" given the instability and crashing of whom they thought might be a secure candidate to honor their investments.

I'm sure they will be fine in the end....but, it won't be easy, and there are compromises that will need to be made. Those compromises may be what will move us forward to more stability...or not. Depending on how greedy they are.

Strange times...but, we've seen some of it before. We always hoped to make it better. Maybe This Time?

[bemildred]

21. I rather like this guys take:

Bring on the Crackup: Hoping for a Trump–Sanders Election

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016149397

Long, but he knows his US ruling elites pretty well.

[KoKo]

22. I did too..and This is For You!

Re: "Bring on the Crack Up" ....very interesting in many ways.

And, I thought you might enjoy this video interview with Cockburn. I might post it out here in FA's Group as a video...but, wanted You to see it First. I thought it was an incredible interview with Patrick Cockburn and that You of all people would enjoy watching it given the many discussions here on "FA's" of this issue that we have had...Plus, it mentions Jeffrey Goldberg's article. "Jefferson 23" might also find it interesting.

------------

Published on Mar 19, 2016

Afshin Rattansi goes underground on the rise of the caliphate in the Middle East. Patrick Cockburn, award winning journalist and author of new book Chaos & Caliphate Jihadis and the West in the Struggle for the Middle East tells us how ISIS rose from the ashes of UK/US wars in the Middle East. Plus could the recent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops mean peace in Syria.

[bemildred]

27. Obama and the House of Saud: a New Skepticism?

Commentators have missed the significance of President Barack Obama’s acerbic criticism of Saudi Arabia and Sunni states long allied to the US for fomenting sectarian hatred and seeking to lure the US into fighting regional wars on their behalf. In a series of lengthy interviews with Jeffrey Goldberg published in The Atlantic magazine, Mr Obama explains why it is not in the US’s interests to continue the tradition of the US foreign policy establishment, whose views he privately disdains, by giving automatic support to the Saudis and their allies.

Obama’s arguments are important because they are not off-the-cuff remarks, but are detailed, wide ranging, carefully considered and leading to new departures in US policy. The crucial turning point came on 30 August 2013 when he refused to launch air strikes in Syria. This would, in effect, have started military action by the US to force regime change in Damascus, a course of action proposed by much of the Obama cabinet as well by US foreign policy specialists.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Gulf monarchies were briefly convinced that they would get their wish and the US was going to do their work for them by overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad. They claimed this would be easy to do, though it would have happened only if there had been a full-scale American intervention and it would have produced a power vacuum that would have been filled by fundamentalist Islamic movements as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Mr Goldberg says that by refusing to bomb Syria, Obama “broke with what he calls, derisively, ‘the Washington Playbook’. This was his liberation day”.

The US has been notoriously averse since 9/11 to put any blame on the Saudis for creating salafi-jihadism, at the core of which is Sunni sectarian hatred for the Shia and other variants of Islam in addition to repressive social mores, including the reduction of women to servile status.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/17/obama-and-the-house-of-saud-a-new-skepticism/

[bemildred]

3. Syrian army presses ahead with offensive after Palmyra victory

Syrian government troops are pressing ahead with an offensive in the province of Homs, near Palmyra, a day after seizing the ancient city from Islamic State militants.

The Kremlin described the success of the Russian-backed operation to recapture the historic city as a “symbolic and important victory” and said Moscow had restored the potential of the Syrian army.

Monitoring groups said forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad had launched a series of operations against Isis near Palmyra, including in Qaryatain, a town with a significant Christian population that the militants took last year. Syrian state TV said Palmyra’s military airport had been reopened.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/28/syrian-army-offensive-palmyra-isis-russia

Good map

[bemildred]

4. What a T-90 Tank Looks Like After Being Hit by a TOW Missile

For all the videos coming out of the Syrian civil war, a one minute, 31-second clip of a U.S.-made TOW missile slamming into a T-90 tank got more attention than most. In the video uploaded in February, Russia’s most advanced operational battle tank met one of the United States’ main tank killers on the battlefield.

The T-90 was Russian made, but likely crewed by Syrian troops. The missile was supplied by the United States — most likely via Saudi Arabia or the CIA — to the Hawks Mountain Brigade fighting near Aleppo.

For the participants, the whole experience might have been terrifiying. For most of the rest of the world, it was a chance to see what happens when state-of-the-art hardware from two major world powers violently collide in the Middle East.

http://warisboring.com/articles/what-a-t-90-tank-looks-like-after-being-hit-with-a-tow-missile/

[bemildred]

5. 'Liberation' of ancient Palmyra came at huge cost, say opposition activists

Cairo: Ten months after losing control of the ancient oasis city of Palmyra, Syrian forces recaptured it from the hands of the so-called Islamic State at the weekend.

Some pictures.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/liberation-of-ancient-palmyra-came-at-huge-cost-say-opposition-activists-20160329-gnswh6.html

[KoKo]

25. So sad..the before and after..more pics, downthread.

[bemildred]

6. Gareth Porter: How Putin’s Leverage Shaped the Syrian Ceasefire

When Russian President Vladimir Putin had a substantive meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry last week, it was an extremely rare departure from normal protocol. There was some political logic to the meeting, however, because Putin and Kerry have clearly been the primary drivers of their respective governments’ policies toward Syria, and their negotiations have already led to a stunningly successful Syrian ceasefire and possible Syrian negotiations on a political settlement.

Washington and Moscow had to cooperate in order to get that ceasefire along with the jump-starting of intra-Syrian negotiations, now scheduled to begin next month, according to UN special envoy Steffan de Mistura. But the diplomatic maneuvering did not involve equal influence on each other’s policies. Putin’s Russia has now demonstrated that it has effective leverage over the policy of Kerry and the United States in Syria, whereas Kerry has no similar leverage over Russian policy.

Kerry had appeared to be the primary driver of a political settlement last year, propelled by a strategy based on exploiting the military success of the Nusra Front-led opposition forces, armed by the United States and its allies, in northwestern Syria. Kerry viewed that success a way of put pressure on both the Assad regime and its Russian ally to agree that Assad would step down.

But that strategy turned out to be an overreach when Putin surprised the outside world by intervening in Syria with enough airpower to put the jihadists and their “moderate” allies on the defensive. Still pursuing that strategy, we now know that Kerry asked US President Barack Obama to carry out direct attacks on Assad’s forces, so he could have some “leverage” in the negotiations with the Russians over a ceasefire and settlement. But Obama refused to do so, and the Russian success, especially in January and February, conferred on Putin an even more clear-cut advantage in the negotiations with the United States over a Syrian ceasefire.

http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2016/03/28/how-putins-leverage-shaped-the-syrian-ceasefire/

[bemildred]

7. Russia's campaign in Syria leads to arms sale windfall

The demonstration of Russian military might during Vladimir Putin’s air campaign in Syria has increased interest from arms buyers and could result in several billion dollars in new sales, analysts and media have said.

US secretary of state John Kerry’s meeting with the Russian president in Moscow last week suggested that Russia has forced the west to takes its political interests into account. But its arms exports, which totalled $15bn (£10.5bn) in 2015, have historically trailed only those of the US, also stand to benefit.

Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday that the “marketing effect” from the Syrian campaign could lead to contracts worth $6bn-$7bn, quoting sources in the Russian government, military and arms export structures. Algeria, Indonesia, Vietnam and even Pakistan, which has long purchased military aircraft from China and the US, intend to buy Sukhoi fighter and bomber jets, it reported.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/russias-campaign-in-syria-leads-to-arms-sale-windfall

[bemildred]

8. How much money will Russia make off operations in Syria?

The more than five-month Russian air force campaign in Syria has cost the country more than 33 billion rubles ($464 million), says Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Yet, these costs do not appear excessive given the expected dividends. Several military sources told Dengi business magazine that since the start of the Syrian campaign the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation has been approached by many countries expressing an interest in Russian defense industry equipment, mainly aircraft.

“On the one hand, (in Syria) we have demonstrated the capabilities of our military hardware, attracting the attention of potential customers; on the other, more than half of all our pilots have received practical combat experience,” says a source involved in military-technical cooperation with foreign countries.

http://rbth.com/defence/2016/03/29/how-much-money-will-russia-make-off-operations-in-syria_579943

[bemildred]

9. CIA Director Visited Russia to Talk on Syria Crisis: US Official

CIA director John Brennan went to Moscow earlier this month to discuss the Syria crisis with the Russian authorities, a US official says.

The spy agency's chief was there to reiterate the United States stance on Syrian President Bashar Assad, the unnamed official was quoted as saying in a Monday report by AFP.

Brennan “reiterated the US government's consistent support for a genuine political transition in Syria, and the need for Assad’s departure," the official said.

The spymaster also stressed “the importance of Russia and the Assad regime following through on their agreements to implement the cessation of hostilities in Syria.”

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1803272

[bemildred]

10. Syrian army's blow to Islamic State presents a paradox for Obama

Even before Syrian government forces officially took back the city of Palmyra on Sunday, its prospective liberation from Islamic State militants had won widespread applause and relief.

“For one year, Palmyra has been a symbol of the cultural cleansing plaguing the Middle East,” Irina Bokova, the director-general of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) said in a statement last week, as Syrian forces closed in on the ancient city and its spectacular Roman-era ruins. “The dynamiting and pillage of its treasures, to break an entire society, sparked a unanimous indignation and strengthened the unprecedented mobilization in favor of the values that unite all humanity.”

But for the Obama administration and its allies, the retaking of the storied city by the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, backed by scores of Russian airstrikes, highlights a dilemma: Washington has endeavored to portray the battle against Islamic State as a project of the United States and its allies, while accusing Moscow of attacking “moderate” rebels instead of the extremists. Palmyra seems to embody an alternative narrative.

The White House, which has struggled for years to find effective “partners” on the ground in Syria, has difficulty publicly lauding advances against Islamic State by Assad and his allies, including the Russians and Iranians, after years of calling for Assad’s fall.

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-palmyra-obama-20160327-story.html

[bemildred]

11. . nt

[KoKo]

24. Palmyra as the Russians have Photographed it:

Missing monuments: Before & After pics of Palmyra show what ISIS has destroyed
Published time: 2 Apr, 2016 20:39

Although I'm sure there will be those who say it was all doctored photos...It is still worth looking at if one can stand it. So much History destroyed. Part of the Chaos of our times when History means Nothing..in the eyes of so many...and, I'm not blaming it all on ISIS..but, the terrible times we live in when the past is worth nothing to create the future. Would wish there was balance. But, it is not to be.

https://www.rt.com/news/338187-palmyra-before-after-pictures/

[bemildred]

26. Just think of all the work those idiots did to further destroy that ancient rubble.

I can stand to look at it, I like ruins, Dead people I don't like to look at much, bits and pieces scattered around, on the other hand.

I wonder what Trump's palace will look like in a couple thousand years. Not much, that's for sure.

[KoKo]

28. Brings this to mind...

Ozymandias
Percy Bysshe Shelley, 1792 - 1822

I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

https://www.poets.org/poetsorg/poem/ozymandias

[bemildred]

29. One of my favorites.

An old sentiment, as the fable of the emperor's new clothes shows. And the older I get, the truer it looks.

All these ego-monuments littering the earth are just so much piss in the wind in the long view.

And a tremendous waste of other peoples's lives and resources.

[bemildred]

30. Mark Twain:

[KoKo]

31. Disagree....

I feel preserving History in areas of Ancient Civilizations and even in Americas "New Continent" is important to Remind People...of what can come if you Ignore History. That we don't teach History well in Schools these days is part of our Decline.

The other argument is that "No One Listens to History" no matter How it is Presented. History is always repeated in one form or another..but, it doesn't mean that those who honor the past, and its lessons for the future, should be excluded from teaching or discussion.

Palmyra, as a Symbol, should be rebuilt with placards describing what the history of what the area is, today, and was about in ancient times. There should be children taken there to teach them and there should be Online Classes (across the Internet) showing how Civilization Progresses but then Destroys Itself, and then... rebuilds and destroys itself again..and again..and again. If we want a new and better world we need to build on the mistakes. Wiping out structures that encourage an exploration of what "Not to Repeat" is a disservice to future generations. IMHO.

It leaves the young without knowledge of what went before to be able to seek a solution for change.

[bemildred]

32. OK. nt

[KoKo]

33. ...!

I think we agree ...except for the small bits? Always appreciate your opinions.

Sorting through all this (through our lifetimes) looking at the past, present and future forward. It can become overwhelmed with differences, sometimes.

Always appreciate your opinions.

[bemildred]

34. I don't think you are wrong about Palmyra.

You may be more concerned about it than I am, but I don't disagree, and I certainly don't want to argue the negative case on preservation.

Palmyra is a ruin, I like ruins.

http://www.amazon.com/In-Ruins-Journey-Through-Literature/dp/1400030862

In this enchanting meditation on ruins, Christopher Woodward takes us on a thousand-year journey from the plains of Troy to the monuments of ancient Rome, from the crumbling palaces of Sicily, Cuba, and Zanzibar to the rubble of the London Blitz. With an exquisite sense of romantic melancholy, we encounter the teenage Byron in the moldering Newstead Abbey, Flaubert watching the buzzards on the pyramids, Henry James in the Colosseum, and Freud at Pompeii. We travel the Appian Way with Dickens and behold the Baths of Caracalla with Shelley. An exhilarating tour, at once elegant and stimulating, In Ruins casts an exalting spell as it explores the bewitching power of architectural remains and their persistent hold on the imagination.

[KoKo]

35. Nice!

I don't like ruins of anything, for the reasons I stated. But, I can understand why some might be so "Fed Up" that they do! But, I still think they miss ...the Lessons that HISTORY teaches us.

But, I'm understanding of what you say! "Romantic Melancholy." Well, as I said, it's differing opinions.

Thanks for that link...Sigh...it is...what..it is. Wlll Watch! 's