Why Russia CANNOT accept a peace-treaty with a stable, western-oriented Ukraine:

[DetlefK]

TL;DR
Russian Exceptionalism. They think they are inherently better than all the other countries around it.







The original native Russians are a scandinavian ethnicity that settled in the Middle-Ages in what is geographically nowadays Belarus/Ukraine/Western Russia. This "Russia" then expanded eastwards and conquered and absorbed other ethnicities.

A tsarist multi-ethnic kingdom, ruled and dominated by native Russians.
When the tsarist Russian Empire fell, it was replaced with the Soviet Union: an international political alliance, ruled and dominated by Russians.

To the Russians, it felt like the Soviet Union was just a mere continuation of the tsarist Russian Empire. They began to think of all of the Soviet Union as Russia.

That's why the Russians reacted differently than all the other soviet ethnicities to the collapse of the Soviet Union:

In the perception of all the other ethnicities, the Soviet-Union, an alliance of countries, was breaking apart into several independent countries.

In the perception of the Russians, the Soviet-Union, THEIR COUNTRY, was being broken apart into SEVERAL COUNTRIES.

So, when the Soviet Union broke apart, this was a national trauma for the Russians: They went from being one of the two strongest empires in the world... to nothing more than a regular country. NOBODIES.




In order to cope with that, Russia created this myth that they are a noble hero struggling against the evil rest of the world.
How the US supposedly wants to destroy Russia for good, break it apart into even smaller countries and steal their oil.
How Russia is the last bastion of all that is good and decent in a world wracked by western immorality and decadence.

It is this myth that gives Russia its strength and national pride:
This myth that Russia is inherently better than others and that all of its problems are caused by outsiders.





A stable Ukraine threatens this myth.

After 2009-debacle with Greece, the EU has some experience how to give financial aid while simultaneously forcing the recipient to implement anti-corruption measures. For that reason alone already, a post-war Ukraine WILL have stronger anti-corruption programs. The floodgates will open for journalists, for artists to process history.

And while Ukraine publicly cracks down on corruption, while Ukraine rebuilds, while a free press catalyzes national debate in Ukraine... Russians will start asking questions:
"Look, they have arrested yet again somebody in Ukraine for stealing financial aid."
"Look what kind of homes they have in Ukraine."
"How come, they are allowed to talk about the war but we are not?"
"I wonder who will win the next democratic election in Ukraine?"
"What do Ukrainians claim what happened during the war?"

The mere existence of a post-war Ukraine already implies several questions that the russian government doesn't want the russian people to ask.

[BeyondGeography]

1. All true...Russia unfortunately won't evolve until it actually loses a real war

And even that might not work. But for its neighbors and their allies it’s our only hope.

[2naSalit]

2. So true.

Unfortunately. Maybe this war will be the undoing of the current Russia and restructure that part of the world for the good (as if), because the only other path I can see is the surrounding countries, including some of EU, might overrun that country for the purpose of human redistribution.