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Russia's last remaining offense has fizzled out. Now on the defense along the entire frontline.
Last edited Sat Oct 15, 2022, 02:36 PM - Edit history (1)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/14/2128820/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-stupid-Bakhmut-campaign-may-have-culminatedBREAKING: Lukashenka says the regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia will include 70,000 Belarusian troops and they will be deployed in the "western direction" via @MotolkoHelp
1) Belarus doesn’t have 70,000 troops. Most credible estimates have current military at 20,000, and could double with full mobilization to 40,000.
2) I stand by my previous assertion that this is all theater, designed to hold off Putin’s pressure, and that we are as likely to see Belarus enter the war, as we were to see 40,000 Syrian fighters promised back in March. All Lukashenko has to do is proclaim Poland a threat and he must defend his “western direction” border.
1) Belarus doesn’t have 70,000 troops. Most credible estimates have current military at 20,000, and could double with full mobilization to 40,000.
2) I stand by my previous assertion that this is all theater, designed to hold off Putin’s pressure, and that we are as likely to see Belarus enter the war, as we were to see 40,000 Syrian fighters promised back in March. All Lukashenko has to do is proclaim Poland a threat and he must defend his “western direction” border.
Lukashenko is playing Putin. For two decades he has been feeding Putin with promises of closer relationships between Belarus and Russia. But Lukashenko likes being a dictator and he knows that if the gets too cozy with Russia, he would give them political power over Belarus.
So Lukashenko will make BIG PROMISES and HUGE ANNOUNCEMENTS how Belarus is on Russia's side... while actually delivering only the bare minimum of actual support to Russia he can get away with.
Last night’s situational update from Ukraine General Staff had a rare and curious omission: there was no mention of any Russian/Wagner mercenary attack toward the Donbas town of Bakhmut. As much fun as we’ve had mocking Russia’s nonsensical attacks on a strategically irrelevant town, we may finally be seeing the culmination of Russia’s last offensive operation anywhere in the entire country of Ukraine.
Between Ukraine's siege of Kherson and Ukraine's Blitzkrieg in the Luhansk-oblast, Russia's siege of Bakhmut was their last major offensive. The russian army was failing in the East, but the Wagner-mercenaries refused to help them out, obsessed with conquering Bakhmut to prove their superiority over the regular russian soldiers. And now it seems that Wagner no longer has the means to continue their siege.
With the siege of Bakhmut fizzled out, Russia has currently no major offensive operations ongoing.
Want more evidence of Russia’s culmination? They are busy building defensive lines well behind the front lines, around 35 kilometers to the east of Bakhmut.
...
Warner might still rustle up some more prison cannon fodder to mindlessly throw at Bakhmut. They are so desperate for a victory, any victory, that they might see it worth their while. But no one builds defensive lines deep in their backfield if they really expect to advance.
...
Warner might still rustle up some more prison cannon fodder to mindlessly throw at Bakhmut. They are so desperate for a victory, any victory, that they might see it worth their while. But no one builds defensive lines deep in their backfield if they really expect to advance.
UPDATE: Russian attacks on Bahmut continue. See:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/113334969#post4
Link to tweet
Those newly mobilized reinforcements: No logistics, no support, no organisation, no supplies. Russian command has just dropped them somewhere to wait for further orders and they are pillaging and stealing to survive. They are freezing at night and half of them is already sick with cold.
Just a few more weeks and these guys will be sitting in WWI-style trenches in the middle of nowhere, in freezing weather, while being bombarded by ukrainian artillery.
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