As Syria civil war enters fourth year, rebels are clearly losing

[bemildred]

HOMS, Syria — On the ragged fringes of the Old City, aid workers, clerics and government troops stood vigil, awaiting a U.N. convoy evacuating women, children and the aged from the besieged ancient quarter of a town known to many as ground zero in the Syrian civil war.

But the buses disgorged a very different class of passengers: scores of young men, haggard and sallow-faced, blankets draped over their shoulders and fear evident in their eyes. They shuffled uncertainly under the hostile gaze of Syrian troops and intelligence officers toward a makeshift processing center in a run-down banquet hall.

The men, who turned themselves in last month, were remnants of Homs' rebel defenders, once the spearhead of the insurgency, now bedraggled and half-starved. They were placing their fate in the hands of their most bitter foe, the forces of President Bashar Assad.

"What do you think they will do with us?" one after another of the dispirited men asked in hushed tones.

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-anniversary-20140328,0,7014801.story

[Swede Atlanta]

1. Not surprising.......

You have an authoritarian dynasty that is fighting disparate rebel interests. Some of those interests are primarily secular while others such as the AQ fighters are much more ideologically driven. Various external parties are supporting differing sides from the Iranians/Hezbollah to the U.S., Saudi, etc.

When the opposition is only united in its desire to topple the current regime but under the covers you have the secular-ideological divide, the opposite will crumble. Remember the old quote "A house divided will fall".

Onto that we have Obama's decision to step back from his "line in the sand". While that is laudable and may be proving beneficial for purposes of the chemical weapons, it sent a strong signal to Damascus that the U.S. has no plans to intervene or become involved in any significant way.

Now you have the U.S./West standoff with Russia who historically has supported the Syrian regime.

Where will this go? Syria is likely a pawn in Western - Russian - Middle Eastern power game.

[bemildred]

2. Syria becomes de facto partitioned and a client state of Iran & Russia.

That's what happens, and that's the good scenario. What those partitions exactly might be remains to be seen. The present religious war will continue too, but that seems very unpredictable in its consequences.