Black Sea Fleet Hides After Breach at Novorossiysk - Jason Jay Smart

[TexasTowelie]

At 19:00 UTC in Novorossiysk, Ukrainian sea drones breached a protected Black Sea harbor. Port defenses and barrier booms were penetrated, and warships moved inside their own base. Authorities raised coastal alerts, and beaches in Sochi were cleared. The key point is a visible change in behavior inside what Moscow called a safe rear area, and the growing cost required to keep ships hidden.

The same night the pressure spread across Russia’s energy network. Strikes on refineries and key fuel infrastructure slowed processing and stalled pipeline segments. When throughput drops, fuel fails to reach core regions. Shortages and restrictions appeared around Moscow and the Leningrad region, with additional reports from other areas. As a result, stations run dry, queues lengthen, and distribution is rerouted. This is how a system pays more to deliver less.

Meanwhile, a parallel front opened in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian intelligence reportedly extracted about 100 terabytes of administrative data, including official correspondence and interministerial files. Documents create leverage because they expose procurement, logistics, and potential crimes. They also force the regime to spend time and money on internal damage control while the battlefield continues to shift.

The direction of travel is one way. Ports harden, ships disperse, and energy flows sputter. Secrecy leaks into daylight, and budgets strain to cover growing losses. In the days ahead we will track three outcome markers that matter more than headlines. First, we will watch how quickly harbor barriers expand and whether the Black Sea Fleet remains inside. Next, we will assess whether refinery output and regional deliveries recover or continue to fail. Finally, we will examine what the Crimea data haul changes about occupation planning and legal exposure.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 War at Home: Novorossiysk Attack & Russian Panic
03:11 Russia's Industrial & Energy Sites Targeted
04:06 Fuel Crisis and Economic Pain Spreads
07:28 Kremlin Conflict: The Political Purge Begins
12:24 The Collapse of Russia's War: Why It's Untenable
15:06 Outro