Russia - China's Vassal State - Good Times Bad Times (The 20s Report)

[TexasTowelie]

Russia's Growing Dependence on China: A Modern Vassalization
This analysis examines how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally transformed its relationship with China, creating a structural dependence that resembles historical vassal states.

Historical Reversal
The relationship has inverted from the mid-20th century when the Soviet Union supported Mao's communist insurgency. Now, Putin's Russia depends heavily on Chinese support to sustain its war effort, receiving dual-use components including semiconductors, CNC machinery, and materials for weapons production.

Economic Transformation
• Trade restructuring: After Western sanctions, China's share of Russian imports surged from 25% (2021) to nearly 50% (2024), while exports doubled from 15% to 30%. Bilateral trade reached $245 billion in 2024.

• Colonial trade pattern: Russia exports 90% raw materials (fossil fuels, metals, timber) while importing high-tech manufactured goods (machinery, vehicles, electronics) - a classic postcolonial exchange.

• Financial dependence ("yuanization&quot : The Chinese yuan now accounts for 40% of Russian trade settlements and 60% of Russia's national welfare fund, giving Beijing enormous leverage over Moscow's financial stability.

Military Dependence
China supplies critical components for Russia's war machine: 90% of microelectronics, 70% of CNC machines, and nitrocellulose for gunpowder. China also facilitates sanctions evasion, routing 18% of Western-made components to Russian weapons systems.

Geopolitical Consequences
• Central Asia: China has established the C+C5 format (excluding Russia) and is building infrastructure like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, systematically displacing Russian influence.

• Asymmetric partnership: Despite the "no limits" partnership declaration, China refuses to invest significantly in Russia (FDI collapsed from $500B to $220B), dictates unfavorable terms for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and prioritizes Western economic ties over Russian interests.

Putin's Ideological Justification
Putin explicitly compares the situation to medieval Prince Alexander Nevsky, who submitted to the Mongol Golden Horde to gain strength against Western invaders. Putin frames Chinese dependence as preserving cultural sovereignty while sacrificing economic sovereignty - preferring vassalage to China over Western influence.

Future Outlook
Analyst Alexander Gabuev predicts Russia will become a "giant Iran of Eurasia" - permanently isolated from the West, technologically backward but sanctions-resilient, serving as an instrument in Beijing's rivalry with Washington. The irony: Putin's imperial ambitions in the West have cost Russia its strategic sovereignty in the East.