Russia in shock after Greenland distraction masks Arctic maritime clampdown - RFU News

[TexasTowelie]

Today, there are interesting updates from Greenland.

Here, following the tense standoff between the USA and Europe over the island, an autonomous territory of Denmark, the Russians started to celebrate the potential self-destruction of NATO. However, their premature joy soon evaporated and turned into shock, as the whole confrontation about Greenland was a constructed decoy.

Russian military analysts have just started sounding the alarm that the Western debate over Greenland was a deliberate strategic distraction, arguing that it serves to legitimize the region’s militarization while minimizing scrutiny from external competitors such as Russia. They expressed the concern that NATO is moving to close the final remaining corridor that enables Russia to sustain its shadow-fleet economy, following increased pressure on routes through the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea by Western countries and Ukraine. This contradicts Moscow’s official line, which argues that this episode is evidence of Western disunity and is advantageous to Russian strategic interests. Russian officials are assessing it as a strategic rift between Europe and the USA, which could potentially even lead to the breakup of NATO.

As supporting evidence for their theory, Russian analysts pointed out President Trump’s announcement of tariffs scheduled to take effect after the scheduled talks, which they downgraded from a real economic threat to a coercive tool intended to force a NATO discussion in Davos. The fact that the issue was quickly resolved during the talks in Davos through an agreement on expanding military bases and facilities reinforced the view that the tariff threat was opportunistic rather than substantive.

As a consequence, Russia faces the prospect of its Northern Sea Route being effectively constrained by an expanded NATO presence led by American forces on Greenland. Last year, 103 official Russian transit voyages moved through here, carrying an estimated 3.2 million tons of cargo, while roughly 100 sanctioned shadow-fleet vessels also used the route. If this route becomes the latest under strict NATO control, this will disrupt shadow-fleet tanker access and sever a critical corridor for which Russia has no viable alternative. At current volumes, blocking these oil tankers will interrupt 10 to 15 percent of Russia’s seaborne oil exports to Asia. A complete closure of the Northern Sea Route would significantly undermine Russia’s Arctic strategy, which integrates economic development, military security, and great-power projection. The route underpins logistical support for the Northern Fleet, including submarine patrols, and its denial would expose critical vulnerabilities to NATO pressure. Strategically, Russia seeks to establish this area as a global shipping alternative, while leveraging access to an estimated 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its natural gas. Enhanced American presence in Greenland would stall these ambitions, damaging both current Russian income and long-term geopolitical influence.

With the United States continuing to board and confiscate tankers in the Atlantic Ocean and now threatening the Russian arctic ports, Europe tightening control over access to the Baltic Sea ports, and Ukrainian drone operations persistently targeting Russian ports in the Black Sea, a de facto maritime containment framework is already taking shape. Collectively, these measures are disrupting an estimated 60 percent of Russia’s seaborne trade, including roughly 80 percent of its oil exports, which would mean around 300 million dollars in lost revenue daily under a complete blockade of these 3 points.

Greenland may prove to be the final element required to enable effective pressure on Russia’s three major western ports and to constrain routes used by the sanctioned shadow fleet. Within NATO discussions, proposals have reportedly included granting the United States a sovereign military foothold on parts of Greenland for the deployment of additional bases together with other NATO countries, drawing parallels to the status of British bases in Cyprus. Such an arrangement would respect Denmark’s sovereignty while expanding NATO countries’ military activity and the ability to exercise control over designated areas for military purposes. The broader framework reportedly encompasses joint resource development, the deployment of elements of the Golden Dome air defense system that the United States plans to build, and measures aimed at countering Russian and Chinese economic or military influence in the region.

Overall, Greenland's strategic position will play a key role in containing Russia’s seaborne trade by tracking, countering, and potentially blocking the final secure route of its shadow fleet tankers, which will devastate not only...

[Red Mountain]

1. Apologies to the Russians.....

his stupidity is confusing to us, too.

[niyad]

2. Thank you for this most interesting update.