Russia Hits New Lows - Joe Blogs

[TexasTowelie]

Russia’s oil and gas revenues have plunged to their lowest level since 2020, with January collections collapsing by nearly 65% compared with the same month last year.

In this video, I break down the official Russian Ministry of Finance data showing how oil and gas income has fallen from 1.12 trillion rubles in January 2025 to just 393 billion rubles in January 2026. I also examine the month-on-month shifts between November, December and January to see whether this is volatility — or a structural decline.

But the bigger story may be price.

Urals crude, Russia’s main export grade, is now trading at a massive discount to Brent, in some months more than $20–$26 per barrel below the global benchmark. With Russia’s 2026 budget built on an assumed $59 oil price, the current $39–$40 level creates a potentially enormous revenue gap.

Using the Russian government’s own sensitivity figures, I calculate what a sustained discount means for the Kremlin’s finances — and how it could add nearly $30 billion to the federal deficit if prices remain depressed.

This is not just about oil prices. It’s about fiscal sustainability, sanctions pressure, widening discounts, and the long-term strain on Russia’s war economy.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:02 REVENUE
5:59 DISCOUNTS
8:35 BUDGET
11:09 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION