Putin's War Plan Is Falling Apart - Jason Jay Smart

[TexasTowelie]

Russia’s full-scale invasion did not begin on February 24, 2022, it detonated. The first hours delivered confusion, shock, and a single unresolved question, what did Vladimir Putin believe he would achieve. The invasion was the visible explosion, but the decision was made earlier, and the proof sits in the weeks before, in preparation signals, logistics, and readiness indicators that moved in one direction while diplomacy moved in another.

Western leaders talked about off-ramps, de-escalation language, and phone calls that implied events were still controllable. At the same time, Russia was preparing for war in ways that made the outcome increasingly irreversible. The contradiction is the story, reassurance and diplomacy on one track, operational preparation on the other. When the blitz failed, the objective did not disappear, it adapted into endurance and political exhaustion rather than fast battlefield victory.

Over the prior 15 years, the posture hardened through turning beats that reshaped Moscow’s method and risk tolerance. The logic fits regime survival and personal power, reinforced by security-service formation and Cold War political warfare habits, pressure, subversion, and patience. Ukraine became the test case for a quick shock plan that required speed, then shifted into an outlast bet designed to wear down democratic unity. Peace talks can pause violence while the wider pressure method continues.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Putin’s "Special Military Operation"
02:23 - Putin’s Worldview: The Global War on NATO
04:03 - The Mafia Doctrine: Russia’s History of Violence
06:19 - Russia’s Shadow War: The Kremlin’s Secret Strategy
08:45 - KGB Active Measures: How Russia Targets the West
09:32 - The Gerasimov Doctrine: Breaking Western Cohesion
10:39 - The Long War: Russia’s Plan to Outlast Ukraine