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Late-Stage Uncertainty and the Difficulty of War Termination in Iran and Ukraine - William Spaniel
Wars normally reveal private information about states' capabilities and resolve, mitigating bargaining frictions that may have caused the war in the first place. However, the mystery behind some sources of uncertainty can only be directly revealed after a long period of warfare. When the Russia-Ukraine War broke out, I began working on a research paper to examine what happens under those conditions. Now that it has been conditionally accepted at a journal, today's video explores the underlying incentives. It also reveals some unfortunate implications about what might happen in Iran.
0:00 Late-Stage Uncertainty in War
4:33 War as a Consequence of Private Information
6:45 The Timing of Uncertainty
10:00 The West's Long-Term Commitment to Ukraine
15:36 Dispute Resolution Inside NATO