False Dawn - Joe Blogs

[TexasTowelie]

Markets may have breathed a sigh of relief after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but the reality on the ground tells a very different story.

In today’s update, I look at why this ceasefire already appears to be on shaky ground, with intensified fighting in Lebanon, renewed missile strikes, growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and crucial US-Iran talks now looming this weekend.

I also break down what this means for the global economy. Although oil prices have pulled back from their recent highs, they remain significantly elevated, and the economic damage from the last few weeks is already feeding through. Higher energy costs, disrupted shipping routes, rising insurance premiums and supply chain delays are all likely to have a major impact on inflation, growth and financial markets over the coming months.

This is a fragile pause, not peace — and the risks remain very real.