China, U.S. moving closer to viewing war as inevitable

[unhappycamper]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2014/09/01/commentary/world-commentary/china-u-s-moving-closer-to-viewing-war-as-inevitable/#.VAXIlvmwJNM

China, U.S. moving closer to viewing war as inevitable
OpEd
by Mark J. Valencia

KANEOHE, HAWAII – The Aug. 19 dangerous encounter between a U.S. Navy surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea was in the Pentagon’s words “certainly not in keeping with the kind of military-to-military relations” the United States seeks with China. Political relations are tenuous as well.

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Such a clash of titans would not be a new phenomenon. In classic realist theory, established powers strive to preserve the status quo that assures their position at the top of the hierarchy and view emerging powers as potential threats. Rising powers feel constrained and strive to stretch the sinews of the international system. They fear that the dominant power will try to snuff them out before they become an existential threat.

Thucydides described this “natural” process regarding Athens and Sparta as a combination of “rise” and fear — which inevitably leads to war. Today this is known as the “Thucydides trap.” The international relations question of our age is: Can China and the U.S. avoid it?

This may sound like Chicken Little warning that “the sky is falling.” But the situation really is quite bad and growing worse by the day. It is now clear that China expects to play a role at “the center of the world’s political system.” It wants to be a new rule maker and an old rule breaker if it is in its national interest to do so. It wants to be an “exceptional” country like the U.S.