Israel Targeted Iranian Missiles in Syria Attack

[bemildred]

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A series of powerful explosions rocked the outskirts of Damascus early Sunday morning, which Syrian state television said was the result of Israeli missile attacks on a Syrian military installation.

If true, it would be the second Israeli airstrike in Syria in two days and the third this year.

The airstrike that Israeli warplanes carried out in Syria overnight on Thursday was directed at a shipment of advanced surface-to-surface missiles from Iran that Israel believed was intended for Hezbollah, American officials said Saturday. That strike was aimed at disrupting the arms pipeline that runs from Syria to Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese organization, and it highlighted the mounting stakes for Hezbollah and Israel as Syria becomes more chaotic.

Iran and Hezbollah have both backed President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, now in its third year. But as fighting in Syria escalates, they also have a powerful interest in expediting the delivery of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in case Mr. Assad loses his grip on power and Syria ceases to be an effective channel for funneling weapons from Iran.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/world/middleeast/israel-syria.html

[Scootaloo]

1. ...And if Syria shoots back?

[MADem]

2. I think they're kind of busy right now.

I'll wager Israel and Turkey are sharing battlespace information, too.

[Scootaloo]

3. Just figured I'd ask

'Cause nobody else on DU is going to think of it, it appears.

[MADem]

4. I suspect Israel thought of it before they marched down that road, and had

contingencies prepared. They're not in the habit of painting themselves into a corner.

[cali]

6. really? no one else? uh, no. just because you don't see it, doesn't mean

it's not here. It is. I started a thread in GD this morning and I've seen other posts.

[King_David]

11. +1

[shira]

12. Clown school is apparently in session. n/t

[bemildred]

5. I don't think they will.

Last thing Assad wants. I could see the Syrian opposition having a motive to create an incident. they aren't doing that well, and Assad has real allies, who may acquiesce in partition but will not leave Assad and his supporters to their fate.

I am curious what Israel is up to, and why, but other than what they say, I would not hazard a guess.

Turkey does indeed have a big say here too.

[azurnoir]

7. Distraction perhaps?

earlier last week Israel rejected the Arab Leagues overtures concerning a peace plan and it is coming under increasing pressure concerning Palestine, what better way to get people paying attention to something else

[bemildred]

8. Distraction is always good, but I doubt it's enough by itself for this sort of thing.

And this mess in Syria is way more important than pressure about Palestine, pressure about Palestine is like the air they breath, the source of their power.

I do think the fear of Hezbollah getting those missiles would do the job though, or the al Nusra fellows, and my best guess is that the motive was along that line, making sure weapons don't fall into the "wrong hands". After Libya I am sure that are taking that much more seriously.

And then there is an element of managing the outcome so nobody wins, all the successor entities are still not much of a theat, which a couiple other posters have mentioned.

I will guess here that one effect of this will be to draw Hezbollah farther into the war, by weakening Assad, and that may be part of the point too.

[azurnoir]

9. There could be many points to this and IMO distraction is one and yours is another

the main stay and common thread is Iran though, and a show of 'strength' see what we can do, what'll ya do about it? Lines in the sand stick on shoulder ect

however Israel isn't taking any chances either, reportedly it's closed civilian airspace in the north

[bemildred]

10. Yep. A good strategy is good in many ways. And yeah, it's rolling the dice all the same.

Puts Assad in a use it or lose it situation, for one thing, and may lead to all sorts of other pernicious things.

It would be easy to ask "what's the hurry?", as a criticism, too. Why now?

But I think we just have to be patient and see how it goes. Neck deep in charges and counter-charges, that's for sure.

[hack89]

13. I think Hezbollah and Iran are pressuring Assad to give sophisticated missile to Hezbollah

in return for Hezbollah providing fighters for Assad.

Israel is thinking about a post Assad ME with an isolated, heavily armed and potentially desperate Hezbollah.