The five big elections which will determine the extent to which lgbt has arrived

[dsc]

There are four marriage referanda in states that we come in as favorites. If we lose these then we are in deep trouble when it comes to getting our marriage rights. No politician will stand with us if we can't show wins when we should win. I would love to win all four but we need to win at least two. All four states are blue, all four states have histories of valuing gay rights, and in all four cases we are outspending our opponents. Again, we can't lose more than 2 of these and be taken seriously.

The fifth race is Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. We must win this race too. She is running against a flawed candidate in a blue year. If she loses after leading in the polls it will be that much harder for the next statewide gay candidate.

[William769]

1. I would respectively disagree.

my thinking is marriage equality is a done deal no matter what happens in the elections. Two Federal Appeals courts have shown why it is unconstitutional and I believe SCOTUS is going to be boxed in to have to say DOMA is unconstitutional.

[dsc]

2. I think if we lose all four we are likely to see Kennedy lose his nerve

though if he gets replaced before this case makes it then that is a whole different thing.

[Fearless]

3. It seems like the court will indeed make the decision

On this issue. I hope we are successful. The longer the case is delayed before being picked up, the more lower court decisions in favor, and the greater likelihood that the court will be inducting a new justice or two.