Obama likely will be the last Democrat to win... without backing same-sex marriage

[Fearless]

Perhaps no flip flop in his career has caused Mitt Romney more grief among conservatives than his evolution on abortion, from a pro-choice gubernatorial candidate to a pro-life presidential contender. His struggle to convince activists of his conservative bona fides underscores the fact that toeing the pro-life line is a requirement for a Republican presidential candidate. It is a litmus test in the most political sense of the phrase.

After decades of avoiding what was once a toxic issue, Democrats are on the verge of establishing a new litmus test, one that will demonstrate just how quickly and dramatically the political landscape will change: When a new crop of Democrats run for the White House in 2016, the top contenders will likely all embrace same-sex marriage the way Republicans embrace a pro-life stand.

Just as there is little room for a pro-choice Republican in national politics, it's becoming increasingly likely that President Obama will be the last Democrat to win his party's presidential nomination without supporting same-sex marriage.

Several of the Democrats who might run in 2016 are already to the left of him on gay marriage. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo helped shepherd a bill through the Republican-controlled state Senate in his first year on the job. Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley led the push to pass similar legislation; he'll sign the bill next week.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/the-new-democratic-litmus-test-20120218

[julian09]

1. He will after his reelection

If he did it now, it would give the Gop another wedge issue to claim that Obama is anti religion.

[monmouth]

2. I think so too, his second term will accomplish much I hope...n/t

[Fearless]

3. Time will indeed tell, judging by the GOP candidates at any rate, ick!

[LonePirate]

6. His support will suddenly appear in his inauguration speech or the 2012 SOTU speech

[beyurslf]

4. I am hoping by the 2016 election, marriage equality will already be

the law of the land.

[dsc]

5. I think it depends

If we nominate a Southerner then likely not. I can't think of any state wide elected Southern Democrat who is in favor of marriage equality.

[MNBrewer]

7. Maybe it's the end for southern nominees for a while, then.

[dsc]

8. It may well be hard for a southern nominee

I think the Democratic money is nearly entirely on the side of marriage equality which would make it hard for the next Clinton to emerge.

[MNBrewer]

9. Or an Obama (not southern, I know, but still anti-equality)

[dsc]

10. but he appealed to the south in his run

I know he won Iowa but his strategy at the beginning was to appeal to southern and rural states and areas and get lots of delegates. In many senses he ran the campaign a southern Democrat would run.

[MNBrewer]

11. Hence difficult for another Obama