Among Black voters, what are the variables that correlate with support for Sanders?

[YoungDemCA]

Something I've been wondering is what distinguishes the minority of Black voters who support Sanders from the majority who support Clinton. What are the main variables that correlate with Black support for Sanders?

I think a few include age (younger voters are more supportive of Sanders), region (Black voters outside the South are somewhat more supportive of Sanders than Black Southerners are), transience (less settled Black voters are more supportive of Sanders), and how likely one is to vote (Black voters who haven't voted in the past may be more likely to support Sanders than consistent voters are).

That's just my view though, based mainly on anecdotal observations rather than actual data - anyone else agree? What are other variables that predict Sanders support among Black voters?

Curious as to other people's thoughts on this.

[SusanCalvin]

1. I have no basis for an opinion, but that's an interesting question. nt

[La Lioness Priyanka]

2. this is from my experience and therefore is anecdotal

1. youth 2. density of their own black network (friend/family) 3. gender.

[forjusticethunders]

4. Started out for Bernie, shifted to Hillary.

1: 26 (so young)
2: I'm honestly pretty disconnected from my family due to personal reasons. My friend circle is fairly mixed, though ALL my black friends support Bernie or started off supporting Bernie.
3: Male

I presume I fit your pattern? Basically I'm a fairly typical Bernie voter *except* that I'm black.

Also how does income fit? I was making under 40k a year in DC, just got a pay raise.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

5. What made you shift to Hillary?

I will say the black Bernie voters I know are not as conspiracy minded as the white ones. That's one big diff that I've noticed. They seem more pro bern than anti Hillary. Obviously this is gross generalization based on a small sample

[forjusticethunders]

6. A lot of factors slowly pushed me towards the Hillary side

1: I did more research on Hillary and while there are still a lot of things about her record I don't approve of, a lot of other things that I thought I knew were taken out of context and distorted. She really is a progressive, just not as much of one as I'd like. I wish she was less hawkish though.

2: The dismissiveness and condescension of the Sanders movement towards POC; "The Confederacy" was absolutely insulting and appalling. The lack of outreach except when it was too little, too late. The implication that black people were "low-info" voters (actually no, black people have a special relationship with the Clintons despite their missteps because the Clintons actually did outreach, while the GOP was cool with letting us suffer). The refusal to listen when black people (including myself on other forums) tried to tell them what was wrong with this strategy. And it's only gotten worse.

3: The dogmatism , lack of attention to detail, and inability to accept mistakes or blame for their failings which is related to 2; failures were never the fault of Bernie Sanders or his movement, it was always some conspiracy. Always something other than "we didn't do enough outreach, we weren't persuasive enough". Not to mention the refusal to acknowledge the Bernie Bro problem because it made them look bad. Also the childish purity shit, the fact that many of these people think that Trump and Clinton are even remotely similar or that Clinton is even remotely as bad as any Republican scares the shit out of me. I'm a black guy with a Latina trans partner who will be moving in with me prior to the election, I am very sure if Trump wins I am fleeing the country.

4: Bernie being straight up unfit for command. The NYDN interview was probably the final push. All slogans, no plans, details and organization. Multiple failures in leadership and integrity. A lot of lies and distortions from the "honest" candidate. A terrible, irresponsible attitude regarding losing.

I voted Hillary (early voted) for that matter on the 22nd in Maryland, as late as April 13th I still intended to vote for Bernie. It was a really long and hard shift based on a lot of factors, and it honestly broke my heart as a socialist leftist to abandon a politician who seemed like he truly represented my values, but as it turns out, he and his movement fell short in a lot of ways.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

7. I too wish she were less hawkish

Points 2 and 3 is why I dislike a lot of Bernie supporters.

Point 4 is why I would vote for him over trump, but REALLY don't think he'd make a good leader.

I like Bernie just fine but a large number of his supporters have really ticked me off. And I don't think he makes any effort to really stop their paranoia and lack of accountability for failure, I find this unleaderlike.

Although I too wish she was less hawkish and empathized more with the palestinian people.

[Canesfan]

8. Well written and I echo your sentiments here

I would also add pragmatism. I think that as African Americans, we have less room for massive economic missteps. Such would be the case in a Sanders election.

[Kind of Blue]

10. Thanks very much for sharing your thoughts.

I agree with every single statement. But most of all, I love that you followed through with research to inform your decision. It gives me hope.

[Hekate]

17. That's very comprehensive. Thanks for putting it all together so well.

[Starry Messenger]

21. +1

And anyone who calls AA voters "low-info" is low-info themselves. That characterization in itself is crazy-making.

[Kind of Blue]

9. I've thought about this for days

and visited many black pro Sanders supporter sites. I've found nothing but the same enthusiasm and sentiment on issues as with other Sanders supporters.

[JustAnotherGen]

11. I don't know single black supporter of Senator Sanders

In my personal life. Not a single one. Not family, not friends, not extended network.

[PragmaticLiberal]

12. I know a few.

All of them 40ish or younger and probably less affluent.

Perhaps "less influent" isn't the right term.

Maybe I should say "less settled" in terms or their careers.

[KeepItReal]

18. I am one and so are my people.

Last edited Sat May 21, 2016, 01:05 AM - Edit history (1)

I only know one African-American, avowed Hillary supporter under 40 and she is a politico and thus derives income from being connected to the Clinton machine. I can't fault her for that. It puts food on the table.

[JI7]

13. i have met a few

But even they just about everyone in their family and other AAs they know are supporting Clinton.

[ecstatic]

14. I know 3, only one actually voted in the primary though...

One guy (Atlanta, 37) is borderline MRA--rolls his eyes whenever women's rights are discussed. He accidentally admitted that he had an issue with a woman being President. He actually did vote in the primaries for Bernie.

Second guy (Atlanta, 31?) is convinced that the Clintons are directly responsible for mass incarceration. He didn't know or care that Bernie voted for the bill. He didn't vote.

And last but not least is my friend (New York, 37) who supported Clinton in the 2008 primaries but supports Bernie now. She says she's changed because her personal situation/ circumstances changed and her thinking has changed as a result. She mentioned something about the "status quo." Seemed a little sketchy but I didn't press the issue. She didn't vote because she is registered as an independent.

[Recursion]

15. Age is a predictor for people of all races

I think I remember that gender is less of a predictor for young African Americans than for young whites. This was IIRC Gallup, a month or two ago; I'll see if I can dig it up.

[Turin_C3PO]

16. From me, a white Bernie supporter

(and hillary supporter now). In the events I went to, the black people there were mostly young people, especially young black males.

[KeepItReal]

19. There are too many variables, but I'll give you a few.

Who thinks the system needs to be changed and who does not?

Who thinks the Clinton reputation has not been sullied (by their own hand) since the 90's and who has?

Who thinks the current Democratic Party is doing OK and who doesn't?

Who thinks it's Hillary's turn because she was a good soldier for President Obama and who thinks she should earn the Presidency on her own merits?

Who thinks Hillary and Bill are a package deal and it will be a third Bill Clinton type of Presidency and who does not think there should be dynastic Presidencies?

Who thinks Hillary is establishment, pro-corporate and a hawk, and who has no idea those things can be attributed to a Democrat, or who think that's OK because everybody does it?

There are many more comparisons, but everybody's different and so would be their reasons for supporting Sec. Clinton or not doing so.

Sec. Clinton benefits from a positive vibe from Black folks stemming from Bill's Presidency. They did great damage to that image in '08... and were smart enough to align closely with President Obama to build back that damaged foundation of goodwill. Obama was kind enough to let them. I would have been like...

The young African-Americans that are for Bernie did not grow up under a Clinton administration (I voted for him for POTUS in my 1st Presidential election ballot), so they don't have a warm fuzzy from the Bill Clinton name (like I still do in spite of what I know know about his legislative deeds back then). They simply have 2 people to pick from. If they remember 08, they probably ain't cool with her not having his back when folks were calling Obama a Muslim, or Bill saying Obama would have been getting his bags back in the day.

Maybe those Black folks for Hillary forgave and forgot, but a brotha like me will not forget Iraq, '08 contest, Goldman Sachs money, Prison Lobby money, and all the rest.

My California primary ballot has been cast for Sen. Sanders. Proudly.

[SaschaHM]

20. I know 3 Black Sanders supporters.

I'm a black Clinton supporter (Southern Ivy Leaguer, 25), but I know 3 black Sanders supporters. All 4 of us are young males (24-26), college educated (2 Yale, 1 Harvard, 1 state school), 3 of us are gay and 1 is straight and 3 of us are from the south. Most of us are ardent Obama supporters while 1 is a conspiracy nut.

One has always been a bit of an unhinged radical. We were great friends during middle/high school though so we still keep in touch through facebook and bond over nerd stuff. The other two are fine.