Democratic progressives, and black Democrats. The problem.

[kwassa]

Cynthia Nixon, like Bernie Sanders before her, has a problem with black Democrats

The second trend is that Cuomo's lead is indicative of is the continually poor showing by progressive insurgents among black voters.

Cuomo is leading across pretty much all demographic groups, but he's particularly strong among African-Americans. Although no crosstab of black voters was available in the Quinnipiac poll, an earlier Siena College poll put Cuomo's margin over Nixon among black voters at 74% to 17%.

.......................................................

Why are progressive insurgents struggling with black voters? Black Democrats are more likely to consider themselves moderate or conservative than other Democrats. They also are more likely to identify as Democrats instead of independents who lean Democratic.

That is, they are far more comfortable with the more moderate Democratic establishment than other Democrats are, especially whites.

Now obviously it's possible for progressive challengers to win a primary even with this difficulty (see Ocasio-Cortez). But until candidates like Nixon and Sanders solve their black voter problem, they're going to be limited in their electoral victories.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/21/politics/nixon-black-voter-problem/index.html

[RandySF]

1. It probably doesn't help

When a candidate proposes pot dispensaries as a means of slavery reparations.

[Sophia4]

2. Statistics:

MAY 10, 2017 — According to new U.S. Census Bureau data, voter turnout increased to 65.3 percent for non-Hispanic whites, but decreased to 59.6 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in the 2016 presidential election (Figure 2). This compared to 2012, when more non-Hispanic blacks (66.6 percent) voted than non-Hispanic whites (64.1 percent) for the first time in this series.

In addition, voters ages 18 to 29 were the only age group to show increased turnout between 2012 (45 percent) and 2016 (46.1 percent), an increase of 1.1 percent (Figure 4). All older age groups either reported small, yet statistically significant turnout decreases or turnout rates not statistically different from 2012.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-tps45-voting-rates.html

Only 1 percent of black respondents in the poll described themselves as Republicans, compared with 59 percent who said they are Democrats. But 59 percent is much less than the overwhelming share of black Americans who vote for Democrats. Many blacks, like Americans overall, largely vote for one party but are not particularly aligned with it: 16 percent of blacks described themselves as independents, while 21 percent answered “none of these.”

Polling done by the Pew Research Center has suggested that among self-identified Democrats, blacks and Latinos are less likely to describe themselves as liberal than whites. Data from this AP/NORC poll comports with Pew’s findings: The majority of blacks say they are moderate (44 percent) or conservative (27 percent), while just 26 percent said that they are liberal.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-diversity-of-black-political-views/

African-Americans make up about 13.4% of the US population.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045217

When African-Americans don't vote, Democrats lose.

But then, the swing voters are white and often vote on economic issues.

It's difficult for Democrats to get the balance right -- to appeal to and get that 13.4% of the population that is African-American out to vote, but to also appeal to the swing voters who vote and determine who wins and loses elections based on economic issues.

If African-Americans could be relied upon to vote in all elections, then their concerns would receive more attention. But politicians have to think about the concerns and interests of those willing to vote.

Hillary won the popular vote even though a lot African-Americans did not vote in 2016. But in certain key states, maybe she would have won and would now be president if more African-Americans had voted.

African-Americans are not a large part of the population. They can, however, influence the outcome of elections beyond their numbers if they vote as they did in 2008 and 2012.

We need African-American votes. If African-Americans don't get out and vote Democratic even when the candidate is "too liberal" for them or not keen enough on race issues, we end up with Trump.

It isn't just liberals who need to learn to vote for Democrats. It's everyone in the Party. But the Party must treat all candidates fairly and make sure that primaries and other elections leave all voters with a sense that the election was held fairly.

[sheshe2]

4. What candidates/ or candidate are you referring to?

It isn't just liberals who need to learn to vote for Democrats. It's everyone in the Party. But the Party must treat all candidates fairly and make sure that primaries and other elections leave all voters with a sense that the election was held fairly.

Which ones were treated unfairly and how.

[Sophia4]

8. Everyone must be treated fairly regardless of race.

And we are all Democrats.

Every effort should be made to make sure that elections are not just, in truth, fair, but also, in appearance, fair.

[sheshe2]

9. Not sure

Sophia4
8. Everyone must be treated fairly regardless of race.

Not sure why you are making this about race. The part I highlighted was when you spoke about candidates being treated unfairly. You did not answer the question then went on about race.

And we are all Democrats.

No, we are not all Democrats. There are several parties out there. GOP. INDIE. Green. Libertarians.

Every effort should be made to make sure that elections are not just, in truth, fair, but also, in appearance, fair.

And you did not answer my question that I will re-post so you might answer.

My question:


4. What candidates/ or candidate are you referring to?

It isn't just liberals who need to learn to vote for Democrats. It's everyone in the Party. But the Party must treat all candidates fairly and make sure that primaries and other elections leave all voters with a sense that the election was held fairly.

Which ones were treated unfairly and how.

...

So which candidate/ candidates were treated unfairly and how?

[Eko]

10. Appearance

is in the eye of the beholder.

[Sophia4]

11. That is the challenge.

[ehrnst]

23. Blaming one's own lack of ability to make one's point on others is

a challenge to those one is trying to communicate with.

[LanternWaste]

14. It then begs the question:

what demographic of the Democratic party do you believe is being treated unfairly?

(as "treated fairly regardless of race" is a qualifier changing the meter of the conclusion it modifies)

[Sophia4]

16. Anyone. Could be any race.

[JustAnotherGen]

19. Except

Black women in particular are the 'base' of the Democratic Party. We are also the 'new working class'.

It's not anything new - but if you were to look at CWA 15 years ago - and now - marked difference. Add in the service industry unions and . . .

Anyway - the thing I would tell you (and maybe you are already) is that if you are THAT concerned about African American voters -

Make sure you reach out to the precinct captions and help GOTV.

The GOP got 70K votes thrown out in 2016 in key states - now it is going to be key districts.

Rather than hand wring and make suggestions - LIVE your suggestions.

ETA - as you wrote:

African-American out to vote, but to also appeal to the swing voters who vote and determine who wins and loses elections based on economic issues.

If African-Americans could be relied upon to vote in all elections, then their concerns would receive more attention. But politicians have to think about the concerns and interests of those willing to vote.

Hillary won the popular vote even though a lot African-Americans did not vote in 2016. But in certain key states, maybe she would have won and would now be president if more African-Americans had voted.

African-Americans are not a large part of the population. They can, however, influence the outcome of elections beyond their numbers if they vote as they did in 2008 and 2012.

If someone has been a sure thing - and treated like that (ie taken for granted) and then your message leaves them out - (Ms. Nixon) they aren't going to show up for you. AND the so-called 'far left' (I'm not sure I believe that exists because our tent is HUGE) needs to make some clear determinations -

Do they want purity or do they want a middle ground . . . with their fellow Democratics? They have to understand that Coates article has been discussed at Sunday dinner for a good solid year, year and a half now.

It's 'cemented' in the mind of black voters. They've got an FDR problem that needs to addressed.

[Sophia4]

21. I walk and table a lot, and this year will be no different.

But I can't move as fast as I used to.

[DinahMoeHum]

3. FWIW, The Intercept has further explanation of this issue. . .

From CNN:

When Ocasio-Cortez was cruising district-wide, she was weak in black neighborhoods. She was able to win in large part because of strength in areas with larger white populations.

In other words, gentrifying neighborhoods.

https://theintercept.com/2018/07/01/ocasio-cortez-data-suggests-that-gentrifying-neighborhoods-powered-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-victory-over-the-democratic-establishment/

[unc70]

5. Many AA voters are religious conservatives

In N.C., we see this in action all the time. For religious reasons, significant portions of AA voters oppose progressive positions on abortion and on gender equality.

[kwassa]

7. There has been a lot of change over time ...

More moderate views are appearing among black churchgoers, as they delve into issues a little more. It depends on the denomination and background of the church.

[unc70]

12. Been a problem here during last two years

[RDANGELO]

6. In my experiiences with Democratic progressives and moderates,

There isn't that much difference policy wise. Most of them would favor reversing the Trump tax cuts and increase taxes on the wealthy, substantially increasing the minimum wage, substantially increasing the number of people receiving affordable health care, more gun regulation, and social justice for minorities. The difference is on emphasis: the progressives put more emphasis on economic reform, the moderates on social justice. The important thing is getting candidates who can get a good turnout from both wings. That's what Obama was able to do.

[kacekwl]

13. Why does there always have to be a problem ?

At this point especially now can we all agree to come together and win some elections and get a majority . Any details,differences can be ironed out afterwards. If not we will be stuck with trumps America for ever. Then try to change anything for the better.

[LanternWaste]

15. Closing your eyes and ignoring rarely makes problems go away.

"can we all agree to come together and win some elections and get a majority..."
Who is arguing otherwise?

Or does your implied premise forward that discussions about race should be put away until a time some wise old man finally decides the time is right to talk about it?


shrug, indeed...

[kacekwl]

18. Discussions about anything except winning in 2018

can certainly be put off until we can get a majority somewhere somehow or conversation about race or anything else will mean nothing if we continue to have no power to change it. Old men have nothing to do with it.

[JustAnotherGen]

22. I'm with you on this

States of Emergency - example - the White Supremacists marching in DC on August 12 - Move in Weekend for HBCU Howard - is 'on point'.

But for now - and as an example - discussions about AOC and her influence in primaries -

Fine, move on- lets get the win.


Once we have the House Majority we can do a lot and influence a lot - but not until then.

[Recursion]

17. I think it's possible to overthink this

If you poll nationally, African American Democrats are about twice as likely to call themselves "moderate" or "conservative" as white Democrats. It shouldn't really be that surprising that this is a bloc that the most liberal candidates have trouble with. Now, does that apply in NY state? I have no idea. But it gets to my other point that our party needs to spend all of its energy and money right now on getting black votes. If we spend a dollar on something else I want to know why.

[JustAnotherGen]

20. Well written