Rickey Henderson stole more bases in 1982 than any entire major league team stole last season.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

It this true, or is he making that up?

Rickey Henderson stole more bases in 1982 than any entire major league team stole last season. Think about that for a minute.

Link to tweet

[underpants]

1. Bill James and the pork and beans cannery

Bill James was working as a night security guard and he started going thru baseball stat books.
It’s changed and greatly lengthened baseball games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_James

On base percentage is key in Sabermetrics. The goal is to take or foul off as many pitches as possible to get the other teams starting pitcher out. Get to middle relievers as fast as possible.

ALSO - don’t steal bases. Sure it can move a runner into scoring position but it can also provide an out without throwing pitches.

Stealing just isn’t done anymore. Plus everyone is muscled up to hit with power.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Flawed Analysis

Last edited Sat Sep 24, 2022, 08:20 AM - Edit history (1)

And, I told James that to his face. He couldn't refute my numbers either.
(I used to be a member of SABR but fell away over WAR which I believe is a grossly flawed statistic using math that seems silly for creating a single value index.
The flaws are multiple: First, the odds of scoring from 2nd base are nearly twice as high as from first, even including homeruns being hit. Since base stealers are 75-80 effective, the lost 22% is really 11. The odds of scoring from first then is, at worst, a breakeven proposition, not a negative.
But, with the force out gone it changes how the battery approaches the rest of the at-bat. This is completely missing in James' conclusions.
Then, ground outs to the right side almost assure a man on third, with no force out. Fly balls to RF have a 30-40% of getting a tag up, where a runner on 1st has a near zero chance of getting to 2nd.
There are others, but you get the drift.
Bill was pissed as this happened with about 300 people in the room.
I felt like Perry Nason, grilling him.
BTW: SABR, Baseball Prospectus & Fangraphs all compute WAR in a different way, all with the same odd uses of mathematical operators in both the numerator & denominator. But, all different. The purveyors of WAR can't even agree on how to calculate it, nor do they have the same method for determining the "typical" replacement player.
The whole thing is less scientific than advertised.

[underpants]

11. Incredible

the things you run into on DU.

My summary was from “Moneyball” and some reading.

I’ve heard and seen the WAR but I didn’t understand how you compare with something that isn’t there. Is there a standard baseball player? Just an average of everyone else?

Great read Prof.

[303squadron]

2. Yes, it's true

Ricky stole 130 bases in 1982 and last year the team with the most steals was KC with 124.

But....... The game is in constant flux. With more batters swinging for the fences now, no manager wants to take the bat out of their hands by throwing away an out with a caught steal at 2nd base. A stolen base is only important if it leads to a run and anything less than a 80% successful steal rate is a net loss in runs.

[Walleye]

4. I remember that season, it was always fun when he got on base. Had a true talent for it

[True Dough]

3. MLB is introducing changes next season that will make the game more friendly for base-stealers

Enlarging the bases and only allowing a couple of pickoff throws by the pitcher to keep base runners close. That should help boost the numbers. No Rickey Henderson among the existing crop of players though.

[Auggie]

5. Helps to have good on-base percentage ...

a generous #2 hitter like Duane Murphy, a crazy-ass manager like Billy Manager, blazing speed, and a committed work ethic. Henderson was a rare mix on a rare team in a different era. It’ll be a while until we see another player like him. I was a big fan of the A’s back then. Man, it was fun.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. Murphy Didn't Miss The Ball A Lot

And, I read he was great at slowing his swing during a steal slowing the catchers reaction a touch. Rickey didn't need much of an edge. Every little bit helped.
Being a good contact hitter, fielders may have reacted a bit slower to leave their spot because of the good chance the ball would be put in play.
Again, not a big difference, but Rickey didn't need much.

[Auggie]

10. +1