NFL Spreads, Conference Championships

[Auggie]

Favorite / Spread / Underdog (Home team in CAPS)

KANSAS CITY / 7.5 / Cincinnati

LOS ANGELES / 3.5 / San Francisco

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33160786/bengals-chiefs-49ers-rams-nfl-playoff-game-picks-schedule-guide-bold-predictions-odds-injuries-matchup-keys-more

7.5 points is a lot for a conference game, but the Chiefs might just cover if the Bengals ease up on the late-game pass rush for the sake of coverage.

Mahomes has one of the quickest and strongest releases in football and he throws on the run and/or off-balance as well as anyone. K.C. receivers do a super job of finding openings for Mahomes at the end of their routes too. Nickle and dime packages have to play tight otherwise Mahomes shreds them. Like in baseball, it's nearly impossible to outrun a thrown football.

Tall order for Cincy—defense has to bring their A-game and they have to hound Mahomes with blitzes IMO.

49ers can cover and possibly win with their usual ball-control run game. Beat writers are predicting quick drops and short passes for Garoppolo to counter L.A. pass rushers Miller and Donald, and to account for the possible absence of TWO starting tackles (Trent Williams is questionable with a high-ankle sprain). Fine—pass the ball to Deebo Samuels and George Kittle for five yards and let them run for seven more.

The S.F. defense is relatively healthy and deep at the line and at linebacker. Can they mess with Mathew Stafford's head one more time and sweep the season? Well, they did a great job of disguising their defenses against Aaron Rodgers and shut him down. I think d-coordinator DeMeco Ryans' crew does it again.

My picks: Kansas City to cover and San Francisco to win.

Anyone else?

[JT45242]

1. Cincy playing with house money...easily covers and may win

The KC Chief 'defensive emergence' during the second half of the season featured beating up on a lot of bad QBs.

Then at the end of the season: Joe Burrow lit them up, San Diego lit them up , and last week Allen lit them up.

The Bengals just beat them. But, there have been health changes since then. In general, the Chiefs are healthier (if Matthieu can play) and the bengals are using a backup tackle and the right side of the line is now awful. (As my son put it -- it was the first time in the history of the NFL that a team started 5 kids from Make A Wish on the offensive line and won).

So, this looks to be a shoootout. If the Chiefs try to take away Chase, the Bengals will run with Mixon (that bad o-line can run block better than it can pass block) or throw to Boyd and Higgins. No one in the league has a better healthy trio of WR than the Bengals. So, if Joe B can throw quickly, he can find guys open.

Last year Bates was the best safety in PFF rankings -- he has played that way for the last month. Both defensive lines get a lot of pressure.

Prediction 38-35 Bengals with another long MacPherson kick. (this is totally a heart pick -- I watched in agony as the Bengals lost to that jerk Montana twice in the 1980s and hope they can smack down the 49ers just once.

[underpants]

3. I suck at gambling but Cincy is on a roll

Young and fast.

Could be a shoot out.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

2. I think the Chiefs likely win handily but it's been a weird season in general

I wouldn't bet on them at -7.5, but also wouldn't be shocked if they won by 2 or 3 TD's. Nor would I be all that shocked if they lost, just been one of those kinds of seasons. Could definitely see a shootout there.

I will be rooting for the 49'ers of course, but I really don't know who to pick in that game. Bet it's going to be close (and a real exciting game) but that's about all I'd predict in that one.

I might throw down a small parlay, Chiefs moneyline + 49'ers (+3.5) just for fun.