Religion
Related: About this forum41 Reasons we're, like, totes sure Jesus existed!
1. Nothing to the Contrary
This argument has a correct Bayesian form: Bishop says, If Jesus really were a non-existent figure of history it would be expected that some anti-Christian group would make this known. Translation: if h, then it is improbable that e, so if mythicism, then it is improbable that no one talked about it. That would be sound if we were talking about the 20th century. But alas, all the records of what was happening in Christian history between Paul and the early second century have been erased. Gone. Completely. So we dont know what any critics of Christianity were saying in those fifty to eighty years. And you cant argue from evidence we dont have.
This is the effect of b, or background knowledge, on the probabilities in Bayesian reasoning. Since we know the records are lost (we dont even have references to them), we cant build arguments on what was not in them. So the probability of the absence of evidence in this case is already 100% on h, simply because of b (see Proving History, pp. 219-24). If Christians had preserved their records for that half century, Bishop might be in a better situation. Alas, they didnt. One can only wonder why (On the Historicity of Jesus, ch. 8.4). The first Christian critics we get to hear from are mid-second century, nearly a hundred years after Paul. And they only know Christian history from the Gospels. By then, there wasnt any way they could know Jesus was made up.
http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/archives/7463
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)rug
(82,333 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)rug
(82,333 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)They are rather certain about it.
Almost dogmatic.
rug
(82,333 posts)But, carry on if it feels good.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)rug
(82,333 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)rug
(82,333 posts)But they really are concerned about.
okasha
(11,573 posts)are pretty near unanimous that he existed. Pointing this out brings screams of "argument from authority."
Of course, one has to assume that such folk carry this objection across the board, and summon a house painter when they have chest pains.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)The mythecists make such a to-do about inconsistency, after all.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I'm a happy evildoer!
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)Maybe you should stay away from such callouts, lest you get hoisted by your own petard.
rug
(82,333 posts)Sorry to add a third dimension to your thinking.
bvf
(6,604 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)I'm a city guy so I have never done it.
okasha
(11,573 posts)that Vikings danced on the extended oars of their longships. That sounds kinda fun.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)were pretty damn sexy, too. I've always fancied a girl who's handy with a battle axe.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)weihenstephaner
okasha
(11,573 posts)But ah, the true honey-mead is unparalleled.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)But, oh, dear, would that make you a yacht-clubber?
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)could make us some appropriate gold arm-rings.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)trotsky
(49,533 posts)Nice to know the right people are all riled up. Must be a good one.
bvf
(6,604 posts)Last edited Mon May 11, 2015, 11:39 AM - Edit history (1)
I'm usually pretty conflicted about putting people on ignore, owing to the entertainment value to be had otherwise.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)should cause anyone who knows anything about the actual scholarship on this subject to run down one-legged grannies to get to the benadryl.
struggle4progress
(118,290 posts)The mythicists' hypothesis doesn't disturb me: if studied in detail, with careful attention to historical context, that hypothesis might lead to useful insights into the culture that produced the Jesus stories, the ways in which the stories were transmitted, and the reasons for the popularity or unpopularity of the stories in different social subclasses -- regardless of their historical accuracy
Instead, Carrier simply wants to prove the stories untrue. But this seems a sophomoric agenda (whether or not one thinks the stories are "true" because from their very beginning the stories have been a scandal against social norms and therefore automatically unappealing to many people
A homeless peasant, born into poverty and executed as a criminal, is the long-awaited Jewish messiah and even the Son of the one true G-d? Really? Now there's a narrative almost guaranteed to win friends among neither Jewish traditionalists or Roman sympathizers of the time!
And, by the way, he rose from the dead after being buried! Most people immediately recognize this story does not immediately commend itself as obviously true
The teachings, taken seriously, don't sound like winners either: love your neighbors enough to sell everything you have for the benefit of the poor, and then you can be persecuted and perhaps martyred as well! This lacks the obvious appeal (say) of sacrificing to Aphrodite in hopes of getting laid. And what about praying, Forgive us as we forgive others? That's actually a rather frightening prayer, if prayed sincerely
I didn't find the Bishop blog, to which Carrier responded, very interesting either -- in part because we have long known that the possibilities, for unveiling "Jesus" by purely historical methods, are very limited. Bishop's claim that each Gospel is an independent account seems false, since Matthew and Luke both appear to borrow some material from Mark. But Carrier's claim every Gospel is just an embellished redaction of Mark isn't really accurate itself: in both Matthew and Luke, there is some common part of the material not borrowed from Mark, sometimes so similar that a credible case can be made that both Matthew and Luke borrowed from another (now lost) source, traditionally called Q
A major weakness of Carrier's approach is that he knows what conclusion he wants to reach ("Jesus never existed" and confines himself to fairly tendentious argument solely to prove this unprovable point. One rather wishes he would instead ask himself some more interesting scholarly question and set out to research it in detail, in order to say something of use to more than the handful of ideologues crowd-funding his current "research"
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)of an historic jesus comes up with "most likely mythic". He goes out of his way to minimize the value of mythic evidence and maximize the value of historic evidence while running his analysis because of the standard objection, which is amusing considering the rest of the "biblical historian" field, that he is simply finding the conclusion he set out to find.
struggle4progress
(118,290 posts)... it's illustrative to note who uses Bayes Theorem to analyse history and who does not. In the first category we have William Lane Craig, the conservative Christian apologist, who uses Bayes Theorem to "prove" that Jesus actually did rise from the dead. And we also have Richard Carrier, the anti-Christian activist, who uses Bayes Theorem to "prove" that Jesus didn't exist at all ... Then if we turn to who doesn't use Bayes Theorem to analyse history we find this category includes ... pretty much every single historian on the planet ... So what exactly is Carrier doing by applying this Theorem in a way that it can't be applied? Apart from being incompetent, he seems to be doing little more than putting a veneer of statistics over a subjective evaluation and pretending he's getting greater precision. Not surprisingly, despite his usual grandiose claims that his use of Bayes Theorem is some kind of revolution in historiography, his book Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus has pretty much sunk without trace and been generally ignored by historical Jesus scholars and historians alike. His failure to convince anyone except a gaggle of historically clueless online atheist fanboys of his vast genius means that Carrier is most likely to remain what he is: an unemployed blogger and general nobody
http://www.quora.com/What-is-your-opinion-on-the-use-of-Bayes-theorem-as-a-tool-to-discover-the-best-historical-explanation-for-the-data-we-have-as-outlined-by-Richard-Carrier