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Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
Sat May 9, 2015, 07:58 PM May 2015

41 Reasons we're, like, totes sure Jesus existed!


1. “Nothing to the Contrary”

This argument has a correct Bayesian form: Bishop says, “If Jesus really were a non-existent figure of history it would be expected that some anti-Christian group would make this known.” Translation: if h, then it is improbable that e, so if mythicism, then it is improbable that no one talked about it. That would be sound if we were talking about the 20th century. But alas, all the records of what was happening in Christian history between Paul and the early second century have been erased. Gone. Completely. So we don’t know what any critics of Christianity were saying in those fifty to eighty years. And you can’t argue from evidence we don’t have.


This is the effect of b, or background knowledge, on the probabilities in Bayesian reasoning. Since we know the records are lost (we don’t even have references to them), we can’t build arguments on what was not in them. So the probability of the absence of evidence in this case is already 100% on h, simply because of b (see Proving History, pp. 219-24). If Christians had preserved their records for that half century, Bishop might be in a better situation. Alas, they didn’t. One can only wonder why (On the Historicity of Jesus, ch. 8.4). The first Christian critics we get to hear from are mid-second century, nearly a hundred years after Paul. And they only know Christian history from the Gospels. By then, there wasn’t any way they could know Jesus was made up.


http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/archives/7463
45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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41 Reasons we're, like, totes sure Jesus existed! (Original Post) Warren Stupidity May 2015 OP
Always enjoy your ops my friend. hrmjustin May 2015 #1
I like it when he takes on The Flood. rug May 2015 #3
The flood on halo or in the bible? hrmjustin May 2015 #6
I don't know that he plays Halo. So, the Bible. rug May 2015 #8
Oh shit! I could always use pointers with defeating the flood on halo. hrmjustin May 2015 #10
Pray! rug May 2015 #11
But they are certain it doesn't work here. hrmjustin May 2015 #13
You know, to be atheist, it is not a requirement that you attempt to prove Jesus did not exist. rug May 2015 #2
It almost feels like a dogmatic approach from our friends about Jesus not being real. hrmjustin May 2015 #4
In fairness, they are divided on the subject. rug May 2015 #5
the experts yes but DU our friends seem rather certain about him. hrmjustin May 2015 #7
Only in certain rooms. rug May 2015 #9
True. hrmjustin May 2015 #12
The actual experts okasha May 2015 #16
Heretic! How dare you okasha! hrmjustin May 2015 #18
Consistency, and all that. okasha May 2015 #22
Evildoer! hrmjustin May 2015 #24
But okasha May 2015 #26
And fun. hrmjustin May 2015 #27
Likewise! okasha May 2015 #30
You know, to be a Catholic it is a requirement that you be anti abortion and gay marrage Lordquinton May 2015 #37
It doesn't require supporting civil laws to impose doctrine. rug May 2015 #41
Lots of log-rolling going on around here. Fun. bvf May 2015 #14
Is log rolling fun? hrmjustin May 2015 #15
I've never done it, either, but I understand okasha May 2015 #17
Vikings can be cute. hrmjustin May 2015 #19
I understand the women warriors okasha May 2015 #20
We need to go to a LGBT vikings shindig. hrmjustin May 2015 #21
Lots of mead! okasha May 2015 #23
My favorite beer is german. hrmjustin May 2015 #25
Some of the best. okasha May 2015 #28
I shall have to find a viking and try some. hrmjustin May 2015 #29
Preferably one with a dragon ship. okasha May 2015 #31
It would fit in with my love of 1 percenters like Hillary. hrmjustin May 2015 #32
We could all sail up the Potomac on it, to the Inauguration. okasha May 2015 #33
You 1 percenter you! hrmjustin May 2015 #34
Faberge, or maybe Winston, okasha May 2015 #35
Lol we can afford it. hrmjustin May 2015 #36
LOL, yours is the only post I can see. trotsky May 2015 #39
Oops! Wrong thread! But the point stands. bvf May 2015 #40
the allergic reaction to Carrier is fascinating. Warren Stupidity May 2015 #42
Anyone who gives Paul Doherty an atom of credence okasha May 2015 #44
I find Carrier's writing tedious and uninteresting struggle4progress May 2015 #38
actually Carriers argument is that a relatively objective assessment of the probability Warren Stupidity May 2015 #43
Actually ... so what? struggle4progress May 2015 #45
 

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)
13. But they are certain it doesn't work here.
Sat May 9, 2015, 08:11 PM
May 2015

They are rather certain about it.

Almost dogmatic.

 

rug

(82,333 posts)
2. You know, to be atheist, it is not a requirement that you attempt to prove Jesus did not exist.
Sat May 9, 2015, 08:02 PM
May 2015

But, carry on if it feels good.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
16. The actual experts
Sat May 9, 2015, 08:56 PM
May 2015

are pretty near unanimous that he existed. Pointing this out brings screams of "argument from authority."

Of course, one has to assume that such folk carry this objection across the board, and summon a house painter when they have chest pains.

Lordquinton

(7,886 posts)
37. You know, to be a Catholic it is a requirement that you be anti abortion and gay marrage
Mon May 11, 2015, 03:19 AM
May 2015

Maybe you should stay away from such callouts, lest you get hoisted by your own petard.

 

rug

(82,333 posts)
41. It doesn't require supporting civil laws to impose doctrine.
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:56 AM
May 2015

Sorry to add a third dimension to your thinking.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
17. I've never done it, either, but I understand
Sat May 9, 2015, 08:56 PM
May 2015

that Vikings danced on the extended oars of their longships. That sounds kinda fun.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
20. I understand the women warriors
Sat May 9, 2015, 09:14 PM
May 2015

were pretty damn sexy, too. I've always fancied a girl who's handy with a battle axe.

trotsky

(49,533 posts)
39. LOL, yours is the only post I can see.
Mon May 11, 2015, 10:41 AM
May 2015

Nice to know the right people are all riled up. Must be a good one.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
40. Oops! Wrong thread! But the point stands.
Mon May 11, 2015, 11:07 AM
May 2015

Last edited Mon May 11, 2015, 11:39 AM - Edit history (1)


I'm usually pretty conflicted about putting people on ignore, owing to the entertainment value to be had otherwise.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
44. Anyone who gives Paul Doherty an atom of credence
Mon May 11, 2015, 05:35 PM
May 2015

should cause anyone who knows anything about the actual scholarship on this subject to run down one-legged grannies to get to the benadryl.

struggle4progress

(118,290 posts)
38. I find Carrier's writing tedious and uninteresting
Mon May 11, 2015, 05:06 AM
May 2015

The mythicists' hypothesis doesn't disturb me: if studied in detail, with careful attention to historical context, that hypothesis might lead to useful insights into the culture that produced the Jesus stories, the ways in which the stories were transmitted, and the reasons for the popularity or unpopularity of the stories in different social subclasses -- regardless of their historical accuracy

Instead, Carrier simply wants to prove the stories untrue. But this seems a sophomoric agenda (whether or not one thinks the stories are "true&quot because from their very beginning the stories have been a scandal against social norms and therefore automatically unappealing to many people

A homeless peasant, born into poverty and executed as a criminal, is the long-awaited Jewish messiah and even the Son of the one true G-d? Really? Now there's a narrative almost guaranteed to win friends among neither Jewish traditionalists or Roman sympathizers of the time!

And, by the way, he rose from the dead after being buried! Most people immediately recognize this story does not immediately commend itself as obviously true

The teachings, taken seriously, don't sound like winners either: love your neighbors enough to sell everything you have for the benefit of the poor, and then you can be persecuted and perhaps martyred as well! This lacks the obvious appeal (say) of sacrificing to Aphrodite in hopes of getting laid. And what about praying, Forgive us as we forgive others? That's actually a rather frightening prayer, if prayed sincerely

I didn't find the Bishop blog, to which Carrier responded, very interesting either -- in part because we have long known that the possibilities, for unveiling "Jesus" by purely historical methods, are very limited. Bishop's claim that each Gospel is an independent account seems false, since Matthew and Luke both appear to borrow some material from Mark. But Carrier's claim every Gospel is just an embellished redaction of Mark isn't really accurate itself: in both Matthew and Luke, there is some common part of the material not borrowed from Mark, sometimes so similar that a credible case can be made that both Matthew and Luke borrowed from another (now lost) source, traditionally called Q

A major weakness of Carrier's approach is that he knows what conclusion he wants to reach ("Jesus never existed&quot and confines himself to fairly tendentious argument solely to prove this unprovable point. One rather wishes he would instead ask himself some more interesting scholarly question and set out to research it in detail, in order to say something of use to more than the handful of ideologues crowd-funding his current "research"

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
43. actually Carriers argument is that a relatively objective assessment of the probability
Mon May 11, 2015, 04:11 PM
May 2015

of an historic jesus comes up with "most likely mythic". He goes out of his way to minimize the value of mythic evidence and maximize the value of historic evidence while running his analysis because of the standard objection, which is amusing considering the rest of the "biblical historian" field, that he is simply finding the conclusion he set out to find.

struggle4progress

(118,290 posts)
45. Actually ... so what?
Mon May 11, 2015, 08:18 PM
May 2015
... it's illustrative to note who uses Bayes Theorem to analyse history and who does not. In the first category we have William Lane Craig, the conservative Christian apologist, who uses Bayes Theorem to "prove" that Jesus actually did rise from the dead. And we also have Richard Carrier, the anti-Christian activist, who uses Bayes Theorem to "prove" that Jesus didn't exist at all ... Then if we turn to who doesn't use Bayes Theorem to analyse history we find this category includes ... pretty much every single historian on the planet ... So what exactly is Carrier doing by applying this Theorem in a way that it can't be applied? Apart from being incompetent, he seems to be doing little more than putting a veneer of statistics over a subjective evaluation and pretending he's getting greater precision. Not surprisingly, despite his usual grandiose claims that his use of Bayes Theorem is some kind of revolution in historiography, his book Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus has pretty much sunk without trace and been generally ignored by historical Jesus scholars and historians alike. His failure to convince anyone except a gaggle of historically clueless online atheist fanboys of his vast genius means that Carrier is most likely to remain what he is: an unemployed blogger and general nobody
http://www.quora.com/What-is-your-opinion-on-the-use-of-Bayes-theorem-as-a-tool-to-discover-the-best-historical-explanation-for-the-data-we-have-as-outlined-by-Richard-Carrier
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