(Jewish Group) In wild overestimate, Americans think 30% of the country is Jewish

[Behind the Aegis]

Americans significantly overestimate the number of Jews living in the country, according to a survey released Tuesday. Respondents guessed on average that 30% of the U.S. population is Jewish — a sum 15 times the actual proportion.

Past surveys have revealed that people overestimate the number of Jews living in their country and around the world. An Anti-Defamation League survey in 2015 found that 18% of people worldwide believed Jews made up at least 10% of the global population — the true figure is about 0.2% — but 16% correctly stated that Jews made up less than 1% of world’s population and another 14% believed they represented a modest 1-2%.

The overestimations are not unique to Jews — people tend to believe most minority groups are much larger and that majorities are smaller than they actually are. YouGov found that the overestimates were unlikely to be based on fear or animosity toward minorities, noting that members of minority groups often overestimated their own share of the population. Black Americans, for example, estimated on average that they made up 52% of the adult population, compared to the actual 12%, and first-generation immigrants guessed on average that 40% of Americans were also recent immigrants, compared to the actual 14%.

“We find that the tendency to misestimate the size of demographic groups is actually one instance of a broader tendency to overestimate small proportions and underestimate large ones, regardless of the topic,” Taylor Orth, a senior survey data writer for YouGov said in an article discussing the findings.

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[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. That's actually scary.

Having such a distorted sense of the correct numbers of any minority group is scary. And dangerous. If you think that some minority group is vastly larger than it really is, and if you are unfavorably disposed to that minority group, then bad things might well ensue.

Here's a related story. I got married in 1980 to an American man who is Jewish. He doesn't look Jewish, and because of that, early learned that he could be a fly on the wall, listening to what others said about persons like him. Anyway, we got married in 1980 and went to Eastern Europe on our honeymoon. In Poland, where all his grandparents had originated, we'd be out walking and men would emerge from the woodwork, go up to him, speak to him in English, and when he was startled and confused, would say, "You're Jewish, aren't you?" I, the Irish American girl, was totally invisible to them. They focused on my husband, who to them was obviously Jewish. After a bit we got used to those confrontations.

It was really quit amazing and wonderful. One time we were led to an attic where documents of the Jewish community had been rescued. They wanted us to see them, to know that their history had been saved. I am not sure we fully appreciated what they were trying to tell us.

I realize this is somewhat different from the overestimation of minorities, but I think it is related.

[Eugene]

2. The general theme is the population of the perceived other is larger.

That survey found similar overestimates for LGBT, Muslims, Asians, Native Americans, millionaires, atheists, NYC residents, left-handed persons. You name it.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/15/americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population

Right-wing media fans the flames of fear of an outside takeover.

[TygrBright]

3. Fear-based dynamic.

This is promoted: "They" are a threat.

The overestimation of "people like me" on the other hand, is a more normal, and usually more healthy, dynamic.

"People like me" are not a threat.

The unasked and rarely-answered question is always, if fear-escalating ideas are promoted, who is doing so, and why?

thoughtfully,
Bright

[LetMyPeopleVote]

4. They are way off

Last numbers that I saw was 3% to 5%

[brush]

5. I think that stat that Blacks people think they're 50% is w-a-a-a-y off.

That's not even close. Most of us know we're in the 12-13% range, and have known it all along.

Whoever came up with that very inaccurate stat must've polled a very small sample size.