2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's Why You Shouldn't Freak Out About Bernie Sanders' Numbers In This New Poll
Here's Why You Shouldn't Freak Out About Bernie Sanders' Numbers In This New Pollby Ariel Edwards-Levy at the Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire-poll_us_569eb6a2e4b04c813761e3de?section=politics
"SNIP.............
Taking each individual poll at face value often leads to a bit of whiplash. In New Hampshire, for instance, seven polls have been released since the beginning of the month, many of which are flatly contradictory:
CNN/WMUR, which has Sanders ahead by 27 points
Monmouth, which has Sanders ahead by 14 points
Fox, which has Sanders ahead by 13 points
NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal, which has Sanders ahead by 4 points
ARG, which released two polls showing Sanders ahead by 6 and 3 points, respectively, and
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, that has Clinton up by 3 points
Our best chance of figuring out the actual state of the race isn't to figure out which of those surveys is most likely to be "right," but to look at all that data together.
HuffPost Pollster's average, which combines all of the publicly released polling on the race, currently gives Sanders a lead of about 9 points:
...............SNIP"
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)But the trends are not positive for Hillary
applegrove
(118,778 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)There's some good stuff in here for both candidates, but since I'm supporting Hillary right now I'll just post this, and Bernie's people will have to read at the link to find stuff they want to see.
natesilver: FWIW, our FiveThirtyEight national polling average (which were not publishing yet stay tuned) has Clinton up 22 percentage points. Although that was before the Monmouth poll released today, which might tighten things a bit. But somewhere in the high teens or perhaps low 20s nationally is where the race seems to be. By contrast, our averaging method would have had Clinton up by 25 points at the end of December.
So that suggests some tightening, but not as much as the media narrative which is pretty blatantly cherry-picking which polls it emphasizes seems to imply.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-bernie-sanders-surge-real/
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)...it doesn't tell you about the respective campaigns' turnout operations to convert that intent into real votes.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Don't you guys call that unskewing polls?
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Plus it should go way up if/when Bernie wins Iowa.
Hillary really does need to win Iowa. If not, she could lose New Hampshire BIG, and have no momentum moving forward.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)If the indies go into the GOP primary, NH will certainly be close for the Democrats.
kenn3d
(486 posts)Again, statistically meaningful trends and conclusions cannot be made by comparing the poll results of different pollsters using different methods. Averaging is indeed more meaningful especially when weighted by how recent the survey, and the historical accuracy (quality) of the pollster.
But comparison of the current poll data from any given polling firm to the last prior data from the same firm can be meaningful if comparable methodology is used. Assuming this was so for the polls list in the OP:
CNN/WMUR, which has Sanders ahead by 27 points is actually +17 Sanders since prior CNN/WMUR
Monmouth, which has Sanders ahead by 14 points is actually +17 Sanders since prior Monmouth
Fox, which has Sanders ahead by 13 points is actually +12 Sanders since prior Fox
NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal, which has Sanders ahead by 4 points is actually -5 Sanders since prior NBC/Marist
ARG, which released two polls showing Sanders ahead by 6 and 3 points, is actually +3 Sanders since prior ARG
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, that has Clinton up by 3 points is actually +5 Sanders since prior PPP
Not too much contradiction there I'd say. And weighted toward the most recent polls in the list it looks very convincingly freaking positive for Sanders.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)kenn3d
(486 posts)The latest YouGov/Economist national poll released this morning reports Sanders 41 (+8) and Clinton 50 (-8) for a net swing of +16 Sanders since the prior YouGov/Economist (a week ago).
daleanime
(17,796 posts)kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)But I still think the CNN poll is inflated.
My guess is about 11 points though if he takes Iowa it will be higher.
Quixote1818
(28,968 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Thus reducing Bernie big advantage with that voting block.
MineralMan
(146,331 posts)that state, in proportion to the votes. The only thing that counts in the nomination is the delegate count from all 50 states. Nothing else matters, in the end.
We'll find out how NH voters feel after that state's primary, just as we will from every other state. Watch the delegate count. That is all.