2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton’s early-state poll numbers just went from bad to nightmare
There are two groups of people that are excited about the new CNN/WMUR poll of Democrats in New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders fans and political pundits.
Both are excited because this poll is a doozy of the blink-twice, ask-a-co-worker-if-you're-reading-the-numbers-correctly variety. Since the last CNN/WMUR poll in December, Sanders's then-large lead of 10 points has inflated to 27 points -- the sort of margin of victory that makes it hard for campaign staff to feel a lot of motivation to get out of bed in the morning.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/19/hillary-clintons-early-state-poll-numbers-just-went-from-bad-to-nightmare/
&w=1484
catnhatnh
(8,976 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)...and just today announced he's ahead there like its new news.
Weird.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511033655
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)draa
(975 posts)That's a large increase since the last polling and if Iowa, who's polls we haven't seen since Clinton's change on single payer, is showing similar movement then she's got problems in those 2 states.
The last Iowa poll was Ann Seizer Thursday and it showed Sanders in a virtual dead heat (down 4/margin 4).
This is the first NH poll. It's showing this much movement so it's going to be a problem elsewhere I'd imagine. Even if you use the 16pt advantage from NH in that outlier poll - not sure I ever trusted that one - then that's an 11 point swing. If use you the +8 it's 19 points.
tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)"Sanders has a slight lead over Clinton in NH"
Apparently the latest poll numbers have them rethinking the "slight" part.
Duckfan
(1,268 posts)So they run this story on his poll numbers in a positive light? If you were to ask me, I'd say the management there has no clue as to what the front end or back end is doing at the same time. They're going in different directions all on cue.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Other than that: I think the polling is started to reflect reality, without "adjustments" to benefit the status quo. Pollsters don't want to end up with egg on their face, and as reality will not conform itself to their earlier "poll results" it will have to be the other way around.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Then, they were within the margin of error.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)I am trying to not get too excited ... but ... This fella Bernie is blazing like a rocket ....
With the stories I have read about Clinton's Iowa (dis)Organization, and the fact that Bernie is operating offices in ALL 11 Super Tuesday states while Hillary is spending 90% of her funds in Iowa and New Hampshire ?
Like I said ... I don't want to get too excited .... but .... DAYUM !
Unprecedented ...
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)Before 2015, I had picked O'Malley to run and do well. He's a nice guy with some progressive values. I don't know enough about him to know his dirt, but I like just about everything he says. If Bernie weren't in this, O'Malley was my candidate.
I'm with Bernie, but OMalley deserves better. He's been really helpful to the progressive message in the debates and has been treated terribly by the moderators.
I think he has a future. 2020 or beyond. May be in a Bernie administration as well in 2016.
Volaris
(10,274 posts)Im not at all familiar with his background or policy history, but for some reason I'm thinking he would make a good Sec.-HHS..
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Someone needs to clean out the Augias stable that Debbie has made - and O'Malley seems like the man who can restore the dignity and impartiality the DNC needs to have.
Volaris
(10,274 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)we need more than just an improvement. We need someone who is more than adequate. We need someone unafraid to ditch 20th century thinking, and embrace the possibilities of the 21st century.
Response to Betty Karlson (Reply #20)
merrily This message was self-deleted by its author.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)he seems overly rehearsed. He's got a bit of a politician thing going. While Bernie to me (who could not be more rehearsed at this point in the campaign) comes across as focused, Martin has this sort of "spent too much time running my lines" feel. I like him alot, seriously, but there is a problem with is delivery I think. I think the VP would be a good position for him to be positioned well for a later presidential run.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)but not like she hoped it would.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)Show me where she is doing well in a representative state.
Delver Rootnose
(250 posts)..that if Hillary wins Iowa you will be trumpeting the victory as if Iowa represents more than corn and wheat.
Sheesh.
All I know is this Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, first in nation BULLSHIT has got to end. I think the first primary states for the democrats should be New York, Illinois, and California.
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)I agree with that. There's really no reason for those three states to have so much influence over presidential elections.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)One is in the Mid-West, one in the East and one in the Southwest. Maybe a Southern state should be included.
rpannier
(24,338 posts)Have 4-6 regions and rotate them, so every 4-6 years that region is 1st, then 6th, then 5th and so on...
Might shorten the primary season and lessen the amount of money needed to run
Only downside I can see, is that the 1st regions might hold undue wsway. But, better a region than a couple of small states
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)The small delegate counts of IA and NH make it possible to lose and make a comeback. That's important to many campaigns.
The small geography makes campaigning less expensive, and the smaller populations of those states means start-up campaigns, with their perennial shortage of money can be smaller and still function.
The small states encourage start ups with their insertion of new ideas. If everything starts out large, the pre-campaign organization has to start earlier and be bigger. I suspect that would mean never ending campaigning for the presidency which would result in entrenchment of an establishment. Imagine -every- campaign being built around a person who'd been running for the office for decades as we see with HRC. I wouldn't yearn for that. Stuff happens in society, politics needs to be more nimble to respond.
I'd prefer that the state with the biggest % turn out of registered dems, and the state with the largest % turn out for the dem candidate in the previous election be among the first handful of states. That would give an incentive to state organizations to build infrastructure to GOTV, and I suspect that's something which might also turn out to be easier in smaller population states...something that might reward state dem parties in currently inconsequential places...like, say, the Dakotas
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)Neither of us should be trumpeting because there is a long way to go.
JVS
(61,935 posts)keep all but the most lavishly funded candidates from being able to seriously participate in the primary process.
Delver Rootnose
(250 posts)'Retail politics' argument. Now we get people being excluded because the don't answer farm and ethanol policy questions right. These small, non representative states should not have such an oversized influence in politics. Candidates shouldn't face the first eliminating hurdle on RURAL issues like farms and the wrong side of guns. By the time anyone who wants to cut back on gun access gets out of Iowa they are either not a viable candidate in the eyes of the media or they have modified thier positions to uselessness. And this is just one issue where the vast populations of America see it differently from the rural farmers of Iowa. Think of how many years gay rights were held up by the religiosity of Iowa.
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Old Crow
(2,212 posts)When you consider the inescapable fact that Hillary already has all the name recognition she's ever going to have while large numbers of voters are still learning about Bernie... with the latest news about Hillary's server...
... I'm beginning to think someone's done.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Yeah,....any time now...
merrily
(45,251 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)they WILL try to steal it in some States, especially places like Florida and Ohio where they've gotten away with it in the past ("They" being the establishment).
questionseverything
(9,658 posts)there are very few states with election systems that are open or transparent enough that any voter can be sure the "reported result" is the actual result
fortunately we start with iowa which has a good system
but the nh system is lousy.....we learned during the 08 primaries after hc's "win" and recount that nh does not include the important "how many voted" number during it's "recount" so more votes than voters can easily be reported
bradblog did excellent coverage during that time and bbv tried to keep track of the chain of custody but scalan's guys made sure that didn't happen
then in sc there is literally nothing to count except the absentee ballots
i am rambling srry but the point is WE NEED OVERWHELMING NUMBERS
Utopian Leftist
(534 posts)The math is easy:
Ask yourself, who votes in primaries anyway? Answer, the hardcore liberals like we at DU.
How long has it been in your personal life since you have had the opportunity in a Presidential election, to vote for someone you actually believed in? For me, it has never happened in my lifetime! I'm 52.
What self-respecting, honest, hardcore liberal would vote for Hillary over Bernie?
Hardcore liberals voting for Hillary in the primary would be like in the 2000 election when a liberal county, I think it was Palm Beach, Florida, went for Buchanan, and even he said that was impossible. In other words, it simply couldn't happen.
In the absence of an October Surprise of some sort, Bernie wins primary and national election, both in landslides. The early polling in Hillary's favor was simply due to a nationally-censored (of the truth) News Media, and a general lack of awareness about the candidates on the part of the public.