2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Hampshire CNN/WMUR/UNH poll: Bernie beats Rubio by 18 points, while Hillary loses to Rubio
Bernie beats all other Republicans by over 20 points. With Bernie as the Democratic nominee, NH is safe D. With Hillary, it's much closer, and she trails Rubio.
Clinton 48%
Trump 39%
Sanders 57%
Trump 34%
Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%
Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%
Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%
Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%
Clinton 45%
Christie 42%
Sanders 57%
Christie 34%
Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%
Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Hopefully they will be dumb enough to nominate one of those two.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Gothmog
(145,345 posts)The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/
Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.
No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.
catnhatnh
(8,976 posts)Earlier this week he swung his polls plus model for NH from the low 50's to 83% chance of Sanders winning...Got that-Monday is was an even money deal and 24 hours later with no major events intervening Bernie jumped 30 points??? So if you can't trust polls at this point I would say Nate is the guy to blame.
Gothmog
(145,345 posts)The poll in the OP is a match poll that ask voters to compare candidates who have not been nominated. These polls are worthless because of (a) the high margin of error and (b) the fact that the candidates have not been vetted. The polls you are citing are individual state polls which are close to the primary in question and are helpful
This thread discusses hypothetical match up polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010
Health Wagon
(99 posts)In the Canada, UK elections and the Scottish referendum.
He should quit politics and stick with sports prediction. He's actually quite good at it.
Gothmog
(145,345 posts)Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Watching Sanders at Monday nights Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump or another Republican nominee would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.
The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the socialist label and requested that Sanders define it so that it doesnt concern the rest of us citizens.
Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who dont want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top thats my definition of democratic socialism.
But thats not how Republicans will define socialism and theyll have the dictionary on their side. Theyll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. Theyll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldnt be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists dont win national elections in the United States .
Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases one of the biggest tax hikes in history, as moderator Chris Cuomo put it to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that hypothetically, youre going to pay $5,000 more in taxes, and declared, W e will raise taxes, yes we will. He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that its demagogic to say, oh, youre paying more in taxes.
Well, yes and Trump is a demagogue.
Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government bigger than ever, Sanders didnt quarrel, saying, P eople want to criticize me, okay, and F ine, if thats the criticism, I accept it.
Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.
Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
Health Wagon
(99 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,961 posts)Cracks me up. 43-43. Because they are both Republican Lite I guess.