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jfern

(5,204 posts)
Thu Jan 21, 2016, 06:51 AM Jan 2016

New Hampshire CNN/WMUR/UNH poll: Bernie beats Rubio by 18 points, while Hillary loses to Rubio

Bernie beats all other Republicans by over 20 points. With Bernie as the Democratic nominee, NH is safe D. With Hillary, it's much closer, and she trails Rubio.

Clinton 48%
Trump 39%

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Clinton 45%
Christie 42%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

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New Hampshire CNN/WMUR/UNH poll: Bernie beats Rubio by 18 points, while Hillary loses to Rubio (Original Post) jfern Jan 2016 OP
Good to see Trump and Cruz looking so weak oberliner Jan 2016 #1
Bernie is strong in NH book_worm Jan 2016 #2
According to Nate Silver's 538 website, these polls mean nothing right now Gothmog Jan 2016 #3
Nate is the reason people say polls are worthless catnhatnh Jan 2016 #4
Hypothetical match up polls are worthless-polls for a state are worthwhile Gothmog Jan 2016 #5
Ask Nate about his perfect predictions Health Wagon Jan 2016 #7
Democrats would be insane to nominate Bernie Sanders Gothmog Jan 2016 #6
There's a thread on it Health Wagon Jan 2016 #8
Kasich and Clinton Nanjeanne Jan 2016 #9
 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
1. Good to see Trump and Cruz looking so weak
Thu Jan 21, 2016, 07:24 AM
Jan 2016

Hopefully they will be dumb enough to nominate one of those two.

Gothmog

(145,345 posts)
3. According to Nate Silver's 538 website, these polls mean nothing right now
Thu Jan 21, 2016, 10:59 AM
Jan 2016

The reliance on these polls by Sanders supporters amuse me. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

Sanders supporters have to rely on these worthless polls because it is clear that Sanders is not viable in a general election where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate may spend an additional billion dollars.

No one should rely on hypo match up type polls in selecting a nominee at this stage of the race.

catnhatnh

(8,976 posts)
4. Nate is the reason people say polls are worthless
Thu Jan 21, 2016, 01:00 PM
Jan 2016

Earlier this week he swung his polls plus model for NH from the low 50's to 83% chance of Sanders winning...Got that-Monday is was an even money deal and 24 hours later with no major events intervening Bernie jumped 30 points??? So if you can't trust polls at this point I would say Nate is the guy to blame.

Gothmog

(145,345 posts)
5. Hypothetical match up polls are worthless-polls for a state are worthwhile
Thu Jan 21, 2016, 03:18 PM
Jan 2016

The poll in the OP is a match poll that ask voters to compare candidates who have not been nominated. These polls are worthless because of (a) the high margin of error and (b) the fact that the candidates have not been vetted. The polls you are citing are individual state polls which are close to the primary in question and are helpful

This thread discusses hypothetical match up polls http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511038010

 

Health Wagon

(99 posts)
7. Ask Nate about his perfect predictions
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 10:38 AM
Jan 2016

In the Canada, UK elections and the Scottish referendum.

He should quit politics and stick with sports prediction. He's actually quite good at it.

Gothmog

(145,345 posts)
6. Democrats would be insane to nominate Bernie Sanders
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 10:24 AM
Jan 2016

Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
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