2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Iowa Poll: HRC up by 9, but...
Bernie has gained ground.
A new Monmouth poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders, 48% to 39%.
Last months poll had Clinton beating Sanders 55% to 33%.
https://politicalwire.com/2016/01/21/clinton-still-leads-in-iowa/
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)Renew Deal
(81,866 posts)Thenewire
(130 posts)are sounding just like Ron Paul zombies.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)as soon as they saw that, the orders went out. time to change the polling "methodology."
and now she is ahead again. i find that
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (KBUR) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7
Clinton +9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/IowaDemCaucusPollJan2016.pdf
has 32% 65 and older when Dem primary exit polls in Iowa show 22% in the past
has 72% 45 and older when Dem primary exit polls in Iowa show 40% in the past
Those two age groups favor Hillary so the demographics are way off
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)This poll is very encouraging for Bernie. A 13 point swing in his favor is never a bad thing.
draa
(975 posts)Especially from the same polling firm. At least the methodology stays consistent.
I said she'd have to pay for her turn away from our party and I'm still convinced that's true.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)to project what the poll should be from their break out numbers - adjusting in the proper demographics but I can't.
I don't have time to go into it but the poll doesn't seem to add up - the breakout numbers don't jive.
Funtatlaguy
(10,879 posts)It is always important to ONLY compare changes from the same polling organization.
Cross organization polling references do not necessarily give a clear trend since all polling organizations use different methods.
As for Iowa, the GOLD standard - that is, the one that most often correctly predicts the current situation and the correct outcome the weekend before the caucus - is
The Des Moines Register poll.
It comes out on Saturday, January 30 .....that is the poll to bet on.
draa
(975 posts)If you're on DU when it comes out you could post an OP in GD;P for everyone. Even if it's not favorable to Sanders it would be good for all to see. Thanks.
Funtatlaguy
(10,879 posts)That newspaper does a great job of disseminating it.
In fact, you can always check here. They have great stories on the race too.
Desmoinesregister.com
Their polls are released at 6am est, generally.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The newest poll is from Monmouth College, not Monmouth University, so we are talking about two different outfits.