2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIowa SHOCK Poll-Clinton 59% Sanders 30% O'Malley 7%
1/22/2016
With the 2016 Iowa precinct caucuses only ten days away, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead over her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the newest Loras College Poll. The statewide poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic caucus was conducted Jan. 13-18.
The newest Loras College Poll finds Clinton leading in terms of which candidate people intend to vote for, which candidate people expect will actually win the precinct caucuses, as well as who they expect will be the eventual nominee. While Sanders has made small gains since the last Loras College Poll released in December, he remains well behind Clinton in this poll.
These last days are crunch time for the campaigns, said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll. The ground games and turnout efforts of the Democratic candidates are in high gear, and with Iowas election-day registration rules, it will be a fascinating 10 days. In little more than a week the voters of Iowa will have their say in this remarkable and memorable election year.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Please, everybody knows Loras's methodology is bunk. The last poll had Bernie at 27 a month ago when everybody else had him in the mid 30s at least. Sorry, DSB, things are not going Hillary's way.
BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)please do so. But please also note that three out of the last four polls indeed have Hillary in the lead and are also much more in line with previous polling than is the one CNN poll where Bernie leads. Loras is also Iowa-based and was correct with its predictions in 2014.
All that said, I am very happy that Hillary is taking no state for granted and is working very hard for every vote.
Caucus day will be the real test.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Thank you in advance.
Respectfully.
DSB
John Poet
(2,510 posts)How bad does polling methodology have to be,
in order to come up with a result
this ridiculously out-of-sync
with every other poll just published?
Hillary might be 9 points ahead.
She might be 8 points behind.
But she certainly is not 29 points ahead in Iowa!
THIS IS a SHOCKINGLY BAD poll, jumping the shark on "outliers"--
so it's no wonder you find it difficult to fashion a comment on it!
LOL
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)I think that Iowa will be in the Clinton column. Eat your heart out, Sanders.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)They are new poll and I was skeptical, but they got it right. We will see.
Hillary has a massive organization on the ground this time, unlike 2008.
Berniebros, Loras' GOP poll is in line with all the others.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Trump-and-Cruz-Deadlocked,-with-Rubio-a-Distant-Th.aspx
This poll should not be dismissed, but taken with a grain of salt.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll
Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.
Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics
Dr. Risslers mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.
http://loras.edu/poll
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)She is leading though. The campaign has much invested on the ground this time, just as Obama did in 2008.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)K & R
Go Hillary!
Fearless
(18,421 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Torm between letting you believe your fantasies and laughing histerically (sic)
-Fearless
If you are going to laugh at me it is incumbent upon you to spell "hysterically" right. I normally don't cite picayune errors, unless the person making the picayune errors is laughing at me.
Respectfully,
DSB
BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)msongs
(67,462 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Thank you in advance.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Not listed among the hundreds of pollsters graded by FiveThirtyEight. And they have literally everyone there. So yes it's a shock that anyone takes this poll seriously. If the results were reversed I would also be highly skeptical.
Just like the ones from Monmouth College and Emerson. Completely new outlets. Who's to say their methodology is accurate.
Much like the WMUR poll, a blowout in either race is highly unlikely
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts in their field?
Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll
Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.
Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics
Dr. Risslers mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.
http://loras.edu/poll
Thank you in advance.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Double Standard - 101
Thank you DSB!
In my original reply I very clearly stated I would be skeptical if it had Sanders up by this much and also skeptical of WMUR's 27 point lead. But whatever helps you feel good.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)In any case, this is like the sixth or so poll out of seven to show Hillary in the lead.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)No question.
The people who did the CNN poll that everyone discounted yesterday was not done by some high school kids, but that was quickly dismissed.
Regardless, congrats on the poll. Best of luck in the coming weeks.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)But the gentlemen conducting it are experts in their field.
I checked the methodology. It seems sound...They are working off a list of registered voters which is less inclusive than random dialing. But they control for that by using a list that was current as of December.
Who knows?
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Just because their CV states their experience, does not, to me tell me that they are the best, or near the best experts in their field. They may be experts compared to Joe Plumber, but how do they rate among their peers?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)They could be wrong... But having a Poli Sci professor and an Applied Mathematics professor collaborate on a poll suggests they have some idea of what they are doing.
If you do some research you will discover that many pollsters don't bring nearly that level of experience and education to the table.
Don't fret, my friend, it's just one poll... I might be fibbing but I hope the next one brings you better news.
PEACE
DSB
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)is the one on Election Day, or in this case, Primary Day.
BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)and gracious congrats!
"Outlier" = a result that does not follow the statistical pattern. In three of the four most recent Iowa polls, Hillary leads, as she has for most of the polling season. The poll cited here may be an outlier in that the margin of difference is significantly greater. But insofar as the statistical trend goes, it is consistent.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)They've polled previously during this cycle and in the 2014 cycle, so they are by no means a new outfit.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Just going by the people who document the polling. Either way, they do not have a sustained track record of accuracy etc (I.e. Selzer, et. al)
Sancho
(9,070 posts)They said the same thing that all researchers would say...no matter which poll is an outlier, you have to look at the pattern. Since the new year (from Real Clear):
CNN/ORC 1/15 - 1/20 280 LV 6.0 43 51 4 Sanders +8
KBUR 1/18 - 1/19 570 LV 4.1 48 39 7 Clinton +9
Loras College 1/13 - 1/18 500 LV 3.1 59 30 7 Clinton +29
Gravis 1/11 - 1/12 461 LV 5.0 57 36 7 Clinton +21
PPP (D) 1/8 - 1/10 580 LV 4.1 46 40 8 Clinton +6
DM Register/Bloomberg 1/7 - 1/10 503 LV 4.4 42 40 4 Clinton +2
ARG 1/6 - 1/10 400 LV 5.0 44 47 3 Sanders +3
Quinnipiac 1/5 - 1/10 492 LV 4.4 44 49 4 Sanders +5
The poll in Iowa that is an outlier is CNN. That's why it still looks like a Clinton win. BTW, the smallest sample was the biggest Sanders lead.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)I think he's got to win both Iowa and New Hampshire to have a chance. NH isn't enough.
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
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DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)That is Poli Sci 101 stuff.
To suggest men will comprise 53% of Iowa caucus voters is absurd.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Response to Live and Learn (Reply #15)
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Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)Though, consistent with their December numbers.
jkbRN
(850 posts)70% landline 30% cell
Age breakdown:
18-34: 200
35-49: 190
50-64: 315
65+: 295
Source: http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/b2/b240073b-c73d-4d47-af0c-02fe23c04c64.pdf
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Response to hrmjustin (Reply #29)
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hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Lawud
(70 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)i also notice there is a new NH poll where HRC is down 9 and not 27.
BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)And wondered whether the CNN result there might also be an outlier as to the difference, even though I give Bernie much better chances in NH than in IA.
IMO, the difference in NH will depend largely on how many Independent men decide to vote in the Dem primary rather than in the GOP primary. There is also some possibility that R women might cross over to vote for HRC since every single GOP candidate would continue the War on Women.
NH could be a real surprise. It will be interesting to see.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)brooklynite
(94,792 posts)right?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)They have no interest in creating , bolstering, or supporting a narrative.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Why wouldn't that impact their objectivity?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Respectfully, if you believe the professors at Loras College cooked the poll because Bernie is going to cap tuitions at universities there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.
BTW, I don't believe the president has the authority to cap tuitions at private universities.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)They're just somehow naturally better people than people who work at a for-profit company?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)No such statutory power exists, even for state universities and much less for private ones.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The government takes over tuition payments to public universities in return for a freeze on tuition rates.
Oddly enough, it's specifically not what he's proposing for healthcare, which is a payment takeover without a freeze.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)But the cost of living varies from state to state and one can't expect a professor at the University Of Florida in Gainesville to live on the same salary as a professor at the University Of California San Francisco?
Recursion
(56,582 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)Respectively, "yes", "maybe", and "no".
As for mine, I have to go with Hegel: maybe. Everything depends on what actually happens.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)'In man's struggle against the world, bet on the world."
Recursion
(56,582 posts)And I agree: Kafka is an absolutely stellar philosopher. A peer of Plato and Nietzsche.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Americans are obsessed with sports and sports is such a large part of the college experience. Even professors who you would think are removed from such middle brow fare* get caught up in it.
How does the financing of sports fit into Senator Sanders' college funding scheme. I read he also wants to do away with things like lavish student halls. This might seem like a utilitarian approach but it would require a huge cultural shift. Colleges educate but they also socialize. I always went to commuter schools or lived off campus. I feel as if I missed something.
* I like sports.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I don't know.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)St. Teresa said "More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones."
Or as Bruce puts it:
riversedge
(70,347 posts)For Clinton, Good News Is No News When It Comes To Polling
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/01/22/for-clinton-good-news-is-no-news-when-it-comes/208115
Blog 1 hour and 44 minutes ago ERIC BOEHLERT
There are lots of different ways campaigns can try to "win" the daily news cycle. Scoring a high-profile endorsement or releasing a new campaign commercial have proven successful in recent days, for example. Another traditional way is to post winning poll numbers, the catnip of the campaign press.
If that's the case, Hillary Clinton's camp probably thought yesterday was shaping up as an overall positive. In the morning, a new Monmouth/KBUR poll was released showing the former secretary of state with a 9-point lead in the very competitive state of Iowa, which holds its caucus on February 1.
A few hours later, Emerson College released an Iowa poll and it also indicated Clinton enjoyed a 9-point lead. At the time, it meant Clinton had led in eight of the previous ten Iowa polls taken, which translates into positive news coverage, right?
Wrong.
Because around 5 p.m., CNN released its latest Iowa polling results, showing Senator Bernie Sanders with an 8-point advantage. So instead of basking in positive coverage about leading in two of the three latest Iowa polls, Clinton had to settle for "it's a draw" reports regarding Thursday's three Iowa polls, right?
Wrong, again.
Instead of reporting on the three polls, several major news organizations yesterday ignored the first two polls and only reported on the CNN survey.
At The New York Times, the CNN poll was news: But the KBUR and Emerson polls were not covered. ..........lots more.....
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)riversedge
(70,347 posts)poll ad nausea!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)If he loses after the media said he was winning he will be seen as unfulfilling expectations rather than exceeding them.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Almost every poll showed Obama leading Romney.
But any time a poll came out that showed them close, the MSM would flog it to death.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Corporate media ain't going to speak of this nor any other polling outfit that shows HRC in the lead that's for sure.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)When will they wake up that they are not counting anyone under 26 years old?
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Nearly two thirds of their likely voters are senior citizens or close to them.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Alfresco
(1,698 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)I doubt her lead is that large but it has to be deflating to some who were prematurely celebrating.
This song is apt:
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)[link:|
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)I would be remiss in not thanking you for bumping my thread and pointing out that award winning statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire, Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
Respectfully,
DSB
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I will try and refrain from gloating however, because when all is said and done, we are the same party and I believe our goals are largely the same.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts in their field?
Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll
Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.
Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics
Dr. Risslers mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.
http://loras.edu/poll
Thank you in advance.
jfern
(5,204 posts)from other pollsters
jfern
(5,204 posts)from other pollsters
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)....they're always inaccurate and always wrong according to Bernie supporters on DU.
So why would any Bernie supporter, including you, care what any poll says?
jfern
(5,204 posts)Your argument is just a strawman, though.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)With all due respect Clinton supporters are deriding the predictive power of general election polls ten months before the election and before the nominees are chosen. As evidence I share with you this:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)pro-Clinton house effect.
Here is how the race in Iowa has developed over the past year according to Loras polling:
Here is how the race in Iowa has developed over the past year according to EVERY OTHER LIVE PHONE pollster:
Clinton and her supporters set the bar of expectations based on Loras polling at their own risk (remember the fate of those who have won Iowa but fell short of expectations -- Harkin '92, Gephardt '88, etc.)
Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)up is down, left is right, fantasies are real, and the 20th century never ended.
NEXT!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)up is down, left is right, fantasies are real, and the 20th century never ended.
NEXT!
-Betty Karlson
I will address your question, Ms Karlson, earnestly and as always, respectfully.
Award winning statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire, Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
Earnestly and respectfully,
DSB
Logical
(22,457 posts)riversedge
(70,347 posts)outright claiming certain candidates are racists. and the OP has great videos
Logical
(22,457 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)"Shocked " gif:
"Shocked" video:
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)But thanx for kicking my thread.
Oh, according to statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton has a 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
Respectfully,
DSB
merrily
(45,251 posts)Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)(okay, not really, but some might), until I saw this OP. Any candidate who is allegedly up by almost 30 points who sends out her talking heads to spread party-killing tripe about how a major segment of their fellow Democrats are backing an avowed Communist who cannot be distinguished from Stalin, who is standing arm in arm with Eric Rudolf and other abortion clinic bombers and who doesn't give two hoots about people of color, CLEARLY lacks the temperament to be POTUS.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)I was thinking, "Maybe "Hillary"
(okay, not really, but some might), until I saw this OP. Any candidate who is allegedly up by almost 30 points who sends out her talking heads to spread party-killing tripe about how a major segment of their fellow Democrats are backing an avowed Communist who cannot be distinguished from Stalin, who is standing arm in arm with Eric Rudolf and other abortion clinic bombers and who doesn't give two hoots about people of color, CLEARLY lacks the temperament to be POTUS.
Dear sir or madame:
Are you asserting my innocuous post changed your mind about Hillary Clinton when everything you wrote after that contradicts your assertion?
Thank you in advance.
Earnestly and respectfully,
DSB
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)your loyalty to your candidate. I would expect nothing less. I believe, however, that here her actions speak louder than your words.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)My remarks were more geared to your suggestion my remarks could sway people here. IMHO, there are more truly undecided voters at the morgue.
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)I understand completely.