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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:10 PM Jan 2016

Iowa SHOCK Poll-Clinton 59% Sanders 30% O'Malley 7%



CLINTON MAINTAINS LEAD, NEW LORAS COLLEGE POLL FINDS
1/22/2016

With the 2016 Iowa precinct caucuses only ten days away, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead over her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the newest Loras College Poll. The statewide poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic caucus was conducted Jan. 13-18.

The newest Loras College Poll finds Clinton leading in terms of which candidate people intend to vote for, which candidate people expect will actually win the precinct caucuses, as well as who they expect will be the eventual nominee. While Sanders has made small gains since the last Loras College Poll released in December, he remains well behind Clinton in this poll.

“These last days are crunch time for the campaigns,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll. “The ground games and turnout efforts of the Democratic candidates are in high gear, and with Iowa’s election-day registration rules, it will be a fascinating 10 days. In little more than a week the voters of Iowa will have their say in this remarkable and memorable election year.”

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Clinton-Maintains-Lead,-New-Loras-College-Poll-Fin.aspx





112 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Iowa SHOCK Poll-Clinton 59% Sanders 30% O'Malley 7% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 OP
Loras? HAHAHA HerbChestnut Jan 2016 #1
If it comforts you to believe that, BlueMTexpat Jan 2016 #78
Which poll is the outlier now? Enlighten us. nt thereismore Jan 2016 #2
Please excuse me if I can not fashion a response as I am in shock. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #5
YOU SHOULD BE!!! John Poet Jan 2016 #71
So..... Is THAT what you call it? MrMickeysMom Jan 2016 #109
Well, that's quite a large lead KingFlorez Jan 2016 #3
Loras got 2014 right. Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #4
I like the fact they are an Iowa based pollster. Also they seem competent DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #6
Her lead is not 29 points. Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #7
In line with two other polls in which HRC leads Iliyah Jan 2016 #21
Torm between letting you believe your fantasies and laughing histerically. Fearless Jan 2016 #8
If you are going to laugh... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #10
Chuckling ... eom BlueMTexpat Jan 2016 #79
no matter who one supports, these polls are all really irrelevant are they not? nt msongs Jan 2016 #9
How can a poll for an election ten days away be irrelevant? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #13
Well Hillary herself declared that polls don't matter...so.... HerbChestnut Jan 2016 #22
Well, I thought that would be 98.8% of Bernie supporters on DU that claims polls are irrelevant n/t Sheepshank Jan 2016 #54
Loras College SheenaR Jan 2016 #11
Would you or would you not stipulate DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #16
Shows HRC leading so it must be bad Iliyah Jan 2016 #25
Typical SheenaR Jan 2016 #27
It does seem overly optimistic but I won't look a gift horse in the mouth. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #31
Looks impressive SheenaR Jan 2016 #30
It does seem overly, overly...optimistic. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #34
Do you know them? RoccoR5955 Jan 2016 #68
No. But a lot of people in the polling business aren't nearly that credentialed. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #70
Actually the only poll that matters RoccoR5955 Jan 2016 #105
Thanks for your comments BlueMTexpat Jan 2016 #81
Loras College is not a new outlet KingFlorez Jan 2016 #20
Check the link I provided SheenaR Jan 2016 #26
Loras was discussed by FiveThirtyEight on Chris Hayes. Sancho Jan 2016 #74
If her lead is this big, then it doesn't matter what Bernie does LittleBlue Jan 2016 #12
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #14
Regardless of the contest women are much more likely to vote than men. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #24
I'm shocked that you would fall for this 'poll'. nt Live and Learn Jan 2016 #15
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #18
Who are you? nt Live and Learn Jan 2016 #23
K&R. Though 29 seems a little out there. MeNMyVolt Jan 2016 #17
Crosstabs jkbRN Jan 2016 #19
Is the Iowa caucus usually 61% age 50+ years old? JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #28
This like the CNN poll is completely off. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #29
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #33
The media is for trashing Hillary and they will use Sanders to do so. hrmjustin Jan 2016 #35
Pretty sure Hilary doesn't need any help in that department Lawud Jan 2016 #40
Who knows? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #38
Noticed that one too. BlueMTexpat Jan 2016 #83
WOW!!! Awesome for Hillary!! SHOCK!!! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #32
C'mon: everybody knows that "CORPORATE" polls are more reliable than polls from a University... brooklynite Jan 2016 #36
Common sense says a university is going to be more disinterested than a media outlet. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #66
Why? Sanders is talking about limiting universities' tuitions Recursion Jan 2016 #75
Respectfully... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #85
He doesn't have the authority to do any of the things he's talking about Recursion Jan 2016 #87
Did he really say he can cap college tuitions? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #92
It's the lynchpin of his plan Recursion Jan 2016 #95
To continue... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #96
Can't we? Recursion Jan 2016 #97
For a theory to become reality it must comport with it, yes?/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #98
I can give you Marx's or Hegel's or Hobbes's answer there Recursion Jan 2016 #101
I am partial to Kafka while he is not a philosopher. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #102
He's strongly in the Hegelian tradition Recursion Jan 2016 #103
Back to more mundane things. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #104
That's a fair question Recursion Jan 2016 #108
"More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones" DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #110
She had 2 polls yesterday that the media ignored in which she was ahead of Sanders.... riversedge Jan 2016 #37
Something is VERY rotten in Denmark. MoonRiver Jan 2016 #39
I had TV on yesteday--not a peep about these polls --but sure heard about the Sanders CNN riversedge Jan 2016 #41
They are too clever by half and actually harming Senator Sanders. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #42
I can get behind on this, yep Iliyah Jan 2016 #47
LOL. It reminds me of 2012 Cali_Democrat Jan 2016 #44
And don't forget Dean Chambers/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #45
Or ahead Iliyah Jan 2016 #46
again with the "likely" voters. RoccoR5955 Jan 2016 #43
They are too. The numbers are provided up thread yeoman6987 Jan 2016 #51
Yeah right. RoccoR5955 Jan 2016 #69
Excellent news DSB. Alfresco Jan 2016 #48
More like outstanding news, Alfresco./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #49
You do have a way with words. :-) Alfresco Jan 2016 #50
I doubt her lead is that large but it has to be deflating to some who... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #52
somewhere, somehow, this poster seems apropos Sheepshank Jan 2016 #58
Deflating? It's hilarious! Please post more, I like a good laugh. Kentonio Jan 2016 #73
I would be remiss in not thanking you for bumping my thread... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #90
I'm sorry to say you have a rude awakening coming when Iowa goes to caucus. Kentonio Jan 2016 #93
Math./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #94
More like junk poll jfern Jan 2016 #53
Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts ... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #55
It's a new pollster that 538 hasn't even rated, and their results are quite a bit off jfern Jan 2016 #56
It's a new pollster that 538 hasn't even rated, and their results are quite a bit off jfern Jan 2016 #56
what do you care? polls don't mean anything...right? n/t Sheepshank Jan 2016 #59
What is your comment supposed to mean? jfern Jan 2016 #60
I mean, Bernie supporters don't care about poll numbers... Sheepshank Jan 2016 #61
Funny, it seems to be Hillary supporters who argue that general election polls don't matter jfern Jan 2016 #62
really? I haven't seen that. I like polls. It pisses off all the right people n/t Sheepshank Jan 2016 #63
With all due respect Clinton supporters... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #64
Please, by all means, raise the expectations for Clinton in Iowa, but note that Loras has a HUGE Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #65
thanks-- good post Fast Walker 52 Jan 2016 #99
DU rec...nt SidDithers Jan 2016 #67
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #72
Loras poll says: Betty Karlson Jan 2016 #76
I will address your question, Ms Karlson, earnestly and as always, respectfully. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #91
Another made up headline and weird video from this poster. Nt Logical Jan 2016 #77
Most headlines on DU (except LBN) are made up. At least it is not demeaning, lying or riversedge Jan 2016 #80
Lol, ok. Nt Logical Jan 2016 #82
Thank you,riversedge but it was a gif, not a video DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #89
I believe it's a gif, sir. I intended to use this one to express my shock. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #88
LOL! merrily Jan 2016 #84
I was thinking, "Maybe "Hillary" Uponthegears Jan 2016 #86
Dear sir or madame DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #100
I appreciate Uponthegears Jan 2016 #106
Thank you... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #107
Lol Uponthegears Jan 2016 #111
This poll was just so scientific... Bjorn Against Feb 2016 #112
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
1. Loras? HAHAHA
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:13 PM
Jan 2016

Please, everybody knows Loras's methodology is bunk. The last poll had Bernie at 27 a month ago when everybody else had him in the mid 30s at least. Sorry, DSB, things are not going Hillary's way.

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)
78. If it comforts you to believe that,
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:09 AM
Jan 2016

please do so. But please also note that three out of the last four polls indeed have Hillary in the lead and are also much more in line with previous polling than is the one CNN poll where Bernie leads. Loras is also Iowa-based and was correct with its predictions in 2014.

All that said, I am very happy that Hillary is taking no state for granted and is working very hard for every vote.

Caucus day will be the real test.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
71. YOU SHOULD BE!!!
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 09:07 PM
Jan 2016

How bad does polling methodology have to be,
in order to come up with a result
this ridiculously out-of-sync
with every other poll just published?


Hillary might be 9 points ahead.
She might be 8 points behind.

But she certainly is not 29 points ahead in Iowa!

THIS IS a SHOCKINGLY BAD poll, jumping the shark on "outliers"--
so it's no wonder you find it difficult to fashion a comment on it!

LOL

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
3. Well, that's quite a large lead
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:14 PM
Jan 2016

I think that Iowa will be in the Clinton column. Eat your heart out, Sanders.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
4. Loras got 2014 right.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:14 PM
Jan 2016

They are new poll and I was skeptical, but they got it right. We will see.

Hillary has a massive organization on the ground this time, unlike 2008.

Berniebros, Loras' GOP poll is in line with all the others.

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Trump-and-Cruz-Deadlocked,-with-Rubio-a-Distant-Th.aspx

This poll should not be dismissed, but taken with a grain of salt.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
6. I like the fact they are an Iowa based pollster. Also they seem competent
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:19 PM
Jan 2016

Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll

Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.




Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics

Dr. Rissler’s mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.


http://loras.edu/poll

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
7. Her lead is not 29 points.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:20 PM
Jan 2016

She is leading though. The campaign has much invested on the ground this time, just as Obama did in 2008.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
10. If you are going to laugh...
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:27 PM
Jan 2016

Torm between letting you believe your fantasies and laughing histerically (sic)

-Fearless



If you are going to laugh at me it is incumbent upon you to spell "hysterically" right. I normally don't cite picayune errors, unless the person making the picayune errors is laughing at me.


Respectfully,
DSB
 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
54. Well, I thought that would be 98.8% of Bernie supporters on DU that claims polls are irrelevant n/t
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:20 PM
Jan 2016

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
11. Loras College
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:27 PM
Jan 2016

Not listed among the hundreds of pollsters graded by FiveThirtyEight. And they have literally everyone there. So yes it's a shock that anyone takes this poll seriously. If the results were reversed I would also be highly skeptical.

Just like the ones from Monmouth College and Emerson. Completely new outlets. Who's to say their methodology is accurate.

Much like the WMUR poll, a blowout in either race is highly unlikely

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
16. Would you or would you not stipulate
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:30 PM
Jan 2016

Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts in their field?




Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll

Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.




Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics

Dr. Rissler’s mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.


http://loras.edu/poll



Thank you in advance.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
27. Typical
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:38 PM
Jan 2016

In my original reply I very clearly stated I would be skeptical if it had Sanders up by this much and also skeptical of WMUR's 27 point lead. But whatever helps you feel good.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
31. It does seem overly optimistic but I won't look a gift horse in the mouth.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:43 PM
Jan 2016

In any case, this is like the sixth or so poll out of seven to show Hillary in the lead.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
30. Looks impressive
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:42 PM
Jan 2016

No question.

The people who did the CNN poll that everyone discounted yesterday was not done by some high school kids, but that was quickly dismissed.

Regardless, congrats on the poll. Best of luck in the coming weeks.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
34. It does seem overly, overly...optimistic.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:46 PM
Jan 2016

But the gentlemen conducting it are experts in their field.

I checked the methodology. It seems sound...They are working off a list of registered voters which is less inclusive than random dialing. But they control for that by using a list that was current as of December.

Who knows?


 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
68. Do you know them?
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 08:46 PM
Jan 2016

Just because their CV states their experience, does not, to me tell me that they are the best, or near the best experts in their field. They may be experts compared to Joe Plumber, but how do they rate among their peers?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
70. No. But a lot of people in the polling business aren't nearly that credentialed.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 09:00 PM
Jan 2016

They could be wrong... But having a Poli Sci professor and an Applied Mathematics professor collaborate on a poll suggests they have some idea of what they are doing.

If you do some research you will discover that many pollsters don't bring nearly that level of experience and education to the table.


Don't fret, my friend, it's just one poll... I might be fibbing but I hope the next one brings you better news.

PEACE
DSB

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)
81. Thanks for your comments
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:19 AM
Jan 2016

and gracious congrats!

"Outlier" = a result that does not follow the statistical pattern. In three of the four most recent Iowa polls, Hillary leads, as she has for most of the polling season. The poll cited here may be an outlier in that the margin of difference is significantly greater. But insofar as the statistical trend goes, it is consistent.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
20. Loras College is not a new outlet
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:34 PM
Jan 2016

They've polled previously during this cycle and in the 2014 cycle, so they are by no means a new outfit.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
26. Check the link I provided
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:37 PM
Jan 2016

Just going by the people who document the polling. Either way, they do not have a sustained track record of accuracy etc (I.e. Selzer, et. al)

Sancho

(9,070 posts)
74. Loras was discussed by FiveThirtyEight on Chris Hayes.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 07:29 AM
Jan 2016

They said the same thing that all researchers would say...no matter which poll is an outlier, you have to look at the pattern. Since the new year (from Real Clear):

CNN/ORC 1/15 - 1/20 280 LV 6.0 43 51 4 Sanders +8
KBUR 1/18 - 1/19 570 LV 4.1 48 39 7 Clinton +9
Loras College 1/13 - 1/18 500 LV 3.1 59 30 7 Clinton +29
Gravis 1/11 - 1/12 461 LV 5.0 57 36 7 Clinton +21
PPP (D) 1/8 - 1/10 580 LV 4.1 46 40 8 Clinton +6
DM Register/Bloomberg 1/7 - 1/10 503 LV 4.4 42 40 4 Clinton +2
ARG 1/6 - 1/10 400 LV 5.0 44 47 3 Sanders +3
Quinnipiac 1/5 - 1/10 492 LV 4.4 44 49 4 Sanders +5

The poll in Iowa that is an outlier is CNN. That's why it still looks like a Clinton win. BTW, the smallest sample was the biggest Sanders lead.

 

LittleBlue

(10,362 posts)
12. If her lead is this big, then it doesn't matter what Bernie does
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:28 PM
Jan 2016

I think he's got to win both Iowa and New Hampshire to have a chance. NH isn't enough.

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
24. Regardless of the contest women are much more likely to vote than men.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:35 PM
Jan 2016

That is Poli Sci 101 stuff.

To suggest men will comprise 53% of Iowa caucus voters is absurd.

Response to Live and Learn (Reply #15)

Response to hrmjustin (Reply #29)

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)
83. Noticed that one too.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:28 AM
Jan 2016

And wondered whether the CNN result there might also be an outlier as to the difference, even though I give Bernie much better chances in NH than in IA.

IMO, the difference in NH will depend largely on how many Independent men decide to vote in the Dem primary rather than in the GOP primary. There is also some possibility that R women might cross over to vote for HRC since every single GOP candidate would continue the War on Women.

NH could be a real surprise. It will be interesting to see.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
66. Common sense says a university is going to be more disinterested than a media outlet.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 08:13 PM
Jan 2016

They have no interest in creating , bolstering, or supporting a narrative.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
75. Why? Sanders is talking about limiting universities' tuitions
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 07:43 AM
Jan 2016

Why wouldn't that impact their objectivity?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
85. Respectfully...
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:41 AM
Jan 2016

Respectfully, if you believe the professors at Loras College cooked the poll because Bernie is going to cap tuitions at universities there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

BTW, I don't believe the president has the authority to cap tuitions at private universities.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
87. He doesn't have the authority to do any of the things he's talking about
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:51 AM
Jan 2016
if you believe the professors at Loras College cooked the poll because Bernie is going to cap tuitions at universities there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion

They're just somehow naturally better people than people who work at a for-profit company?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
92. Did he really say he can cap college tuitions?
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:42 AM
Jan 2016

No such statutory power exists, even for state universities and much less for private ones.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
95. It's the lynchpin of his plan
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:53 AM
Jan 2016

The government takes over tuition payments to public universities in return for a freeze on tuition rates.

Oddly enough, it's specifically not what he's proposing for healthcare, which is a payment takeover without a freeze.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
96. To continue...
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:57 AM
Jan 2016

But the cost of living varies from state to state and one can't expect a professor at the University Of Florida in Gainesville to live on the same salary as a professor at the University Of California San Francisco?

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
101. I can give you Marx's or Hegel's or Hobbes's answer there
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 10:37 AM
Jan 2016

Respectively, "yes", "maybe", and "no".

As for mine, I have to go with Hegel: maybe. Everything depends on what actually happens.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
102. I am partial to Kafka while he is not a philosopher.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 10:40 AM
Jan 2016

'In man's struggle against the world, bet on the world."

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
103. He's strongly in the Hegelian tradition
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 10:48 AM
Jan 2016

And I agree: Kafka is an absolutely stellar philosopher. A peer of Plato and Nietzsche.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
104. Back to more mundane things.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 11:03 AM
Jan 2016

Americans are obsessed with sports and sports is such a large part of the college experience. Even professors who you would think are removed from such middle brow fare* get caught up in it.

How does the financing of sports fit into Senator Sanders' college funding scheme. I read he also wants to do away with things like lavish student halls. This might seem like a utilitarian approach but it would require a huge cultural shift. Colleges educate but they also socialize. I always went to commuter schools or lived off campus. I feel as if I missed something.


* I like sports.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
110. "More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones"
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 11:30 AM
Jan 2016

St. Teresa said "More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones."

Or as Bruce puts it:


riversedge

(70,347 posts)
37. She had 2 polls yesterday that the media ignored in which she was ahead of Sanders....
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:48 PM
Jan 2016


For Clinton, Good News Is No News When It Comes To Polling

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/01/22/for-clinton-good-news-is-no-news-when-it-comes/208115
Blog ››› 1 hour and 44 minutes ago ››› ERIC BOEHLERT


There are lots of different ways campaigns can try to "win" the daily news cycle. Scoring a high-profile endorsement or releasing a new campaign commercial have proven successful in recent days, for example. Another traditional way is to post winning poll numbers, the catnip of the campaign press.

If that's the case, Hillary Clinton's camp probably thought yesterday was shaping up as an overall positive. In the morning, a new Monmouth/KBUR poll was released showing the former secretary of state with a 9-point lead in the very competitive state of Iowa, which holds its caucus on February 1.

A few hours later, Emerson College released an Iowa poll and it also indicated Clinton enjoyed a 9-point lead. At the time, it meant Clinton had led in eight of the previous ten Iowa polls taken, which translates into positive news coverage, right?


Wrong.

Because around 5 p.m., CNN released its latest Iowa polling results, showing Senator Bernie Sanders with an 8-point advantage. So instead of basking in positive coverage about leading in two of the three latest Iowa polls, Clinton had to settle for "it's a draw" reports regarding Thursday's three Iowa polls, right?

Wrong, again.

Instead of reporting on the three polls, several major news organizations yesterday ignored the first two polls and only reported on the CNN survey.

At The New York Times, the CNN poll was news: But the KBUR and Emerson polls were not covered. ..........lots more.....

riversedge

(70,347 posts)
41. I had TV on yesteday--not a peep about these polls --but sure heard about the Sanders CNN
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 03:54 PM
Jan 2016

poll ad nausea!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
42. They are too clever by half and actually harming Senator Sanders.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 04:07 PM
Jan 2016

If he loses after the media said he was winning he will be seen as unfulfilling expectations rather than exceeding them.


 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
44. LOL. It reminds me of 2012
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 04:11 PM
Jan 2016

Almost every poll showed Obama leading Romney.

But any time a poll came out that showed them close, the MSM would flog it to death.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
46. Or ahead
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 04:36 PM
Jan 2016

Corporate media ain't going to speak of this nor any other polling outfit that shows HRC in the lead that's for sure.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
43. again with the "likely" voters.
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 04:11 PM
Jan 2016

When will they wake up that they are not counting anyone under 26 years old?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
52. I doubt her lead is that large but it has to be deflating to some who...
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:12 PM
Jan 2016

I doubt her lead is that large but it has to be deflating to some who were prematurely celebrating.


This song is apt:




DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
90. I would be remiss in not thanking you for bumping my thread...
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:36 AM
Jan 2016

I would be remiss in not thanking you for bumping my thread and pointing out that award winning statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire, Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:





http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/



Respectfully,
DSB

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
93. I'm sorry to say you have a rude awakening coming when Iowa goes to caucus.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:45 AM
Jan 2016

I will try and refrain from gloating however, because when all is said and done, we are the same party and I believe our goals are largely the same.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
55. Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts ...
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:22 PM
Jan 2016

Would you or would you not stipulate that the gentlemen who conducted this poll are experts in their field?




Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Politics
Director of the Loras College Poll

Budzisz joined the Loras College Politics program in 2000, with teaching emphasis on constitutional law, American government and institutions, political philosophy, as well as elections and political behavior. As a 2007 Fulbright Scholar, Budzisz taught in the International Relations Faculty at Chernivtsi National University in Chernivtsi, Ukraine. He has been published in PS: Political Science and Politics, and in the edited volume Engaging the Public: How Government and the Media Can Reinvigorate American Democracy. Beyond his teaching and research interests, Budzisz is director and coach of the Loras College Moot Court program. He is also a past winner of the Mike and Linda Budde Excellence in Teaching Award.




Matt Rissler, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Mathematics

Dr. Rissler’s mathematical interests lie with modeling systems via agent-based methods; this touches on differential equations and stochastic systems. Of the many applications, he prefers the biological or political ones. He likes to teach useful math, so he teaches Statistics and Calculus often. Dr. Rissler also teaches a fun Math of Politics course in J-term. In his free time, he enjoys Ultimate Frisbee and used to be really good, competing at Club Nationals in 2003 and 2004.


http://loras.edu/poll



Thank you in advance.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
56. It's a new pollster that 538 hasn't even rated, and their results are quite a bit off
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:28 PM
Jan 2016

from other pollsters

jfern

(5,204 posts)
56. It's a new pollster that 538 hasn't even rated, and their results are quite a bit off
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:28 PM
Jan 2016

from other pollsters

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
61. I mean, Bernie supporters don't care about poll numbers...
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:37 PM
Jan 2016

....they're always inaccurate and always wrong according to Bernie supporters on DU.

So why would any Bernie supporter, including you, care what any poll says?

jfern

(5,204 posts)
62. Funny, it seems to be Hillary supporters who argue that general election polls don't matter
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:40 PM
Jan 2016

Your argument is just a strawman, though.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
64. With all due respect Clinton supporters...
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 07:50 PM
Jan 2016

With all due respect Clinton supporters are deriding the predictive power of general election polls ten months before the election and before the nominees are chosen. As evidence I share with you this:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
65. Please, by all means, raise the expectations for Clinton in Iowa, but note that Loras has a HUGE
Fri Jan 22, 2016, 08:07 PM
Jan 2016

pro-Clinton house effect.

Here is how the race in Iowa has developed over the past year according to Loras polling:



Here is how the race in Iowa has developed over the past year according to EVERY OTHER LIVE PHONE pollster:



Clinton and her supporters set the bar of expectations based on Loras polling at their own risk (remember the fate of those who have won Iowa but fell short of expectations -- Harkin '92, Gephardt '88, etc.)

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
91. I will address your question, Ms Karlson, earnestly and as always, respectfully.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:40 AM
Jan 2016
Loras poll says:

up is down, left is right, fantasies are real, and the 20th century never ended.

NEXT!

-Betty Karlson




I will address your question, Ms Karlson, earnestly and as always, respectfully.



Award winning statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire, Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/



Earnestly and respectfully,
DSB

riversedge

(70,347 posts)
80. Most headlines on DU (except LBN) are made up. At least it is not demeaning, lying or
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:18 AM
Jan 2016

outright claiming certain candidates are racists. and the OP has great videos

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
88. I believe it's a gif, sir. I intended to use this one to express my shock.
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 09:17 AM
Jan 2016



But thanx for kicking my thread.


Oh, according to statistician and poll aggregator extraordinaire Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton has a 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/


Respectfully,
DSB
 

Uponthegears

(1,499 posts)
86. I was thinking, "Maybe "Hillary"
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 08:45 AM
Jan 2016

(okay, not really, but some might), until I saw this OP. Any candidate who is allegedly up by almost 30 points who sends out her talking heads to spread party-killing tripe about how a major segment of their fellow Democrats are backing an avowed Communist who cannot be distinguished from Stalin, who is standing arm in arm with Eric Rudolf and other abortion clinic bombers and who doesn't give two hoots about people of color, CLEARLY lacks the temperament to be POTUS.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
100. Dear sir or madame
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 10:30 AM
Jan 2016

I was thinking, "Maybe "Hillary"
(okay, not really, but some might), until I saw this OP. Any candidate who is allegedly up by almost 30 points who sends out her talking heads to spread party-killing tripe about how a major segment of their fellow Democrats are backing an avowed Communist who cannot be distinguished from Stalin, who is standing arm in arm with Eric Rudolf and other abortion clinic bombers and who doesn't give two hoots about people of color, CLEARLY lacks the temperament to be POTUS.




Dear sir or madame:



Are you asserting my innocuous post changed your mind about Hillary Clinton when everything you wrote after that contradicts your assertion?


Thank you in advance.


Earnestly and respectfully,
DSB
 

Uponthegears

(1,499 posts)
106. I appreciate
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 11:11 AM
Jan 2016

your loyalty to your candidate. I would expect nothing less. I believe, however, that here her actions speak louder than your words.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,716 posts)
107. Thank you...
Sat Jan 23, 2016, 11:18 AM
Jan 2016

My remarks were more geared to your suggestion my remarks could sway people here. IMHO, there are more truly undecided voters at the morgue.

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