Can Romney replicate Bush’s 2004 path to victory? It looks dicey.

[alp227]

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, 9/23/12

There’s little question that come Nov. 6, President Obama won’t equal the 365 electoral votes that the then-candidate Obama won in the 2008 election.

But the bigger and more important question when it comes to the electoral-college conversation is whether former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney can come close to replicating the path to victory that President George W. Bush took during his 2004 reelection race. At the moment that looks like a dicey proposition, and that should make Republicans very nervous.

Let’s start with the Bush map that delivered him 286 electoral votes and a second term. Bush won 31 states — a sum that included victories in the following swing states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Those six wins gave Bush 73 electoral votes and the presidency.

If Romney was able to exactly follow Bush’s 2004 winning map, he would wind up with 292 electoral votes — as a result of population changes reflected in the decennial reapportionment of congressional seats in 2011— but that scenario seems unlikely.

New Mexico and its five electoral votes will go for Obama. In Iowa, a state the Romney team had real hopes of winning, those hopes have faded somewhat with a new NBC-Marist-Wall Street Journal poll showing Obama up eight points and even GOP operatives privately conceding that the state is not moving in their direction.

full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/can-romney-follow-bushs-2004-path-to-victory-it-looks-dicey/2012/09/23/050cc60c-0592-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_story.html

[formercia]

1. Bush Gang stole the Election in 2004

and they will probably try to flip votes this time as well.

There was no Victory, only theft.

[TroyD]

2. That's what I suspect as well

There's evidence that the votes in Ohio were sent to a Republican server in TN and tampered with. And then there's the suspicious plane crash of Rove operative Michael Connell shortly before he was to testify in court about electoral fraud.

I certainly hope the Obama campaign is making sure they win the election in the way they were able to in 2008.

[ailsagirl]

8. Yep

Google karl rove and THE LATE tech guru mike connell
Connell fixed it so Ohio went to W

[99th_Monkey]

3. It's not over until it's over, ESP. with an even more evil SCOTUS looming.

not to mention the massive voter suppression, which doesn't effect the poll
numbers, but will be reflected in the actual votes counted.

and not to mention that we STILL have never dealt with the election fraud
perpetrated by evil private GOP-owned and operated computer voting machine
corporations; where machines are calibrated to "flip" up to 8-9% of the vote from
the "D" candidate over to the "R" candidate, as needed to keep a slim lead.

The only reason Obama was able to win in 2008 is that the MASSIVE turnout
overwhelmed the system and they couldn't fudge the numbers any more without
becoming completely obvious and transparently fraudulent and inaccurate on it's
face.

I think that helps explain Mr. Rmoney's abysmal failure of a campaign is that
he KNOWS all these fraudulent and evil forces are at work "behind the scenes"
on his behalf, and so he's gotten lazy, figuring that he can win even if he fucks
up every other day, and drives his campaign into the ditch. Hubris is a bitch.

[liberal N proud]

4. They have the people in place in Ohio to steal it

All they need to do is deliver enough other states.

[RBInMaine]

5. No victory is going to happen for the MittTwit. So enough of this shit.

[smorkingapple]

6. Ignore, this is typical media "let's pretend this is still a race" spin to keep ratings/readership

[madinmaryland]

7. Apparently Cillizza has been given some blank space to fill up with worthless chatter.

[flamingdem]

9. If the polling was a bit closer they could get away with it PLUS

he'd have to erase our collective memories about those gaffes ... no sure which was the worst but probably the Boca 50 grand a plate tape.

[LiberalFighter]

10. Last I heard, Rmoney is the challenger. Not the incumbent.

[garthranzz]

11. Tried to email Cilliza

but there's no email link for him I could see.

Here's the message I intended to send: "Your analysis would be interesting and valuable, except it ignores a crucial fact: Bush stole Ohio and New Mexico. He probably also stole Colorado. If you want references and sources, I'll be glad to provide them. One of the biggest lies the media protects is that Bush "won" 2004."

[alp227]

12. here's a contact form

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/chris+cillizza/

OR: [e-mail]

[TexasCPA]

13. Mitt will not win OH, VA, NH, NV, NM, or IA

He might win FL. It is a coin toss there. He will probably win in NC and IN.

[davidpdx]

14. I didn't read the entire article

But one thing I see lacking in the bit I did read is the fact that the demographics have changed in many of the states he mentions. Hell I don't think anyone after the election in 2004 would say "we are going win Virginia and North Carolina in 2008". Flipping those two did some serious damage.