Despite media hype, the numbers say Hillary Clinton has a healthy lead in Iowa

[riversedge]

TWEET:

Millennials4Hillary Retweeted
Joyce L Jenkins ‏@JoyceLJenkins Jan 21

Hillary still ahead in Iowa! http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/despite-media-hype-the-numbers-say-hillary-clinton-still-has-a-healthy-lead-in-iowa/23626/ … #HillYes




Despite media hype, the numbers say Hillary Clinton has a healthy lead in Iowa
By Bill Palmer | January 21, 2016




If you listen to the media narrative, Hillary Clinton has fallen behind in the Iowa caucus and is in real danger of losing the democratic primary race altogether. Not so fast. In the media’s rush to try to make the primary look like a close contest, presumably for the sake of ratings, it’s overlooked the fact that Clinton is still leading in Iowa by every measurement out there. In fact Iowa isn’t even all that close of a race.

Of the last three polls conducted in Iowa, Hillary Clinton is leading in all three, according to respected poll tracking site Real Clear Politics. The margin is all over the place, but her average lead across the three is 10.6%. And in the latest polling analysis released today by respected polling analyst FiveThirtyEight, Clinton’s is somewhere between 6.8% and 12.4% based on the two different models they’re using. So while Iowa is not a slam dunk for Hillary in the way that subsequent states like South Carolina and Nevada are, the notion that she’s “losing” or even “in trouble” in Iowa is a media creation. New Hampshire is a different story, but not nearly as bad for Clinton as the media is suggesting.

New Hampshire .......more......

[KingFlorez]

1. Indeed

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Are "the numbers" anything like "the math" Karl Rove relied on

when he was asked "Is this just math you do . . . to make yourself feel better?" http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-megan-kelly-on-karl-rove-projections-2012-11

We all saw how Karl's "math" turned out.

[riversedge]

3. nah. you just posted that old chestnut to make yourself feel better.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. We shall see.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

[enid602]

10. watch it

Disrespecting candidates' spouses is not becoming of dems.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. What does that mean?

What spouse? You've lost me... If you're referring to the "fat lady sings" comment, it's a very old colloquialism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_ain't_over_till_the_fat_lady_sings "The phrase is generally understood to be referencing the stereotypically overweight sopranos of the opera" and means that the opera isn't over yet. So, no, there was no intended reference to any spouse or their alleged weight.

[Matariki]

15. wtf?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. That was when Rove was questioning the public polls

That was when Rove was questioning the public polls and suggested his polling showed different results while failing to release them.


That's a whole different ball of wax.

[Gman]

5. They didn't include online polls and tweets

So this can't be true.

[pinebox]

6. Same thing McCain said

[mythology]

8. And Romney supporters claimed the polls were skewed

Like many Sanders supporters here have done. It's at the very least a two-way street.

[Sheepshank]

7. She will get at least 48 out of 50 States, probably 49/50

while the Bernie crowd is still crowing over perhaps the one state will he will get.

[link:https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=https://toopink.wordpress.com/2010/10/11/failure-poster-child/&h=400&w=358&tbnid=s6dScd33u2eGRM:&docid=GQuWv4lxlVuSnM&ei=xLaiVqr8NYnojwPCibpA&tbm=isch&ved=0ahUKEwiq7taKxb7KAhUJ9GMKHcKEDgg4rAIQMwgoKCUwJQ|

[OilemFirchen]

12. At this point, I'm sticking with my presumption of a 14% popular advantage.

Contrary to popular (DU) opinion, the polls are oversampling non-caucus particpants. How that translates into delegates is impossible to determine, but I'll venture a SWAG at 36 of 52.

[mcar]

13. K&R

For reality!

[DLnyc]

14. I guess the CNN/ORC poll is not a "measurement out there"?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-full-results-cnn-orc/index.html

January 15 - 20
. . .
BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 280 DEMOCRATIC LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR +/- 6 PERCENTAGE POINTS
. . .
Sanders 51%
Clinton 43%

Maybe this poll is wrong somehow, and Hillary is still ahead. But I don't quite get how you can say:

"Clinton is still leading in Iowa by every measurement out there. In fact Iowa isn’t even all that close of a race. "

??

[cherokeeprogressive]

16. Doo dah...